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Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Christopher J. Zakrzewicz ,
B. Wade Brorsen  and
Brian C. Briggeman
Christopher J. Zakrzewicz
Affiliation:
Stampede I Redwolf Farms, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
B. Wade Brorsen
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Brian C. Briggeman
Affiliation:
Arthur Capper Cooperative Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas
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Extract

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

Keywords

agricultureforecastingland valuequalitativeG21Q14
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 45 , Issue 1 , February 2013 , pp. 159 - 170
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2013

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