Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-m9kch Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-14T15:49:37.128Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Centre–Province Relations in Personalist Autocracies: Explaining the Emergence and Survival of Powerful Provincial Leaders

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 June 2021

Jakob Tolstrup  and
Emil Souleimanov Open the ORCID record for Emil Souleimanov [Opens in a new window]
Jakob Tolstrup
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Emil Souleimanov*
Affiliation:
Institute of Political Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
*
*Corresponding author. Email: arslanlik@yahoo.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We have limited knowledge of how the insecure environment characteristic of personalist dictatorships affects the behaviour of provincial leaders. In this article, we argue that such provincial leaders face a trade-off: either they can keep a low profile but remain vulnerable to the capriciousness of the ruler (the acquiescent strategy), or they can gamble and try to build a power base of their own as a defence against the whims of the dictator (the power-accruing strategy). Next, we specify three contextual conditions, each of which makes provincial leaders more likely to choose and succeed with a power-accruing strategy, which in turn allows them to rule their province with an iron fist. Finally, empirically, we illustrate our arguments through a number of example cases and an in-depth study of a contemporary, very powerful provincial leader in a personalist authoritarian regime: Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic within Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Keywords

personalist autocraciescomparative authoritarianismcentre–periphery relationshipRussia
Type
Article
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 57 , Issue 3 , July 2022 , pp. 446 - 466
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Government and Opposition Limited

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baturo, A and Elkink, JA (2016) Dynamics of Regime Personalization and Patron–Client Networks in Russia, 1999–2014. Post-Soviet Affairs 32(1), 75–98. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2015.1032532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, L (2018) State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bunce, V (2017) The Prospects for a Color Revolution in Russia. Daedalus 146(2), 19–29. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busygina, I, Filippov, M and Taukebaeva, E (2018) To Decentralize or to Continue on the Centralization Track: The Cases of Authoritarian Regimes in Russia and Kazakhstan. Journal of Eurasian Studies 9(1), 61–71. https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.euras.2017.12.008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chang, E and Golden, MA (2010) Sources of Corruption in Authoritarian Regimes. Social Science Quarterly 91(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00678.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dadayev, A (2006) Ramzan Kadyrov: ‘Derzhu vse pod zhestkim kontrolem’. [Ramzan Kadyrov: ‘I Keep Everything Under Tight Control’]. Moskovskiye Novosti, 18 August. www.chechnya.gov.ru/page.php?r=28&id=14.Google Scholar
Dawisha, K (2015) Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Egorov, G and Sonin, K (2011) Dictators and Their Viziers: Endogenizing the Loyalty–Competence Trade-Off. Journal of the European Economic Association 9(5), 903–930. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01033.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egypt Today (2018) What is the Role of Egypt's Governors? 1 September. www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/56932/What-is-the-role-of-Egypt%E2%80%99s-governors.Google Scholar
Fuller, L (2015) Chechnya's Best-Kept Secret: The Workings of the Akhmad Kadyrov Fund. Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, 6 June. www.rferl.org/a/caucasus-report-chechnya-akhmad-kadyrov-fund/27057288.html.Google Scholar
Fuller, L (2017) Kadyrov's Chechnya Appears Exempt from Russian Funding Cuts. Caucasus Report, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, 30 July. www.rferl.org/a/caucasus-report-kadyrov-chechnya-exempt-funding-cuts/28648698.html.Google Scholar
Geddes, B (1999) What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science 2(1), 115–144. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, B, Wright, JG, Wright, J and Frantz, E (2018) How Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, V (2010) The Dynamics of Subnational Authoritarianism (Russia in Comparative Perspective) Russian Politics & Law 48(2), 7–26. https://doi.org/10.2753/RUP1061-1940480201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gendron, R (2009) Alternative dispute resolution in the North Caucasus. Caucasian Review of International Affairs 3(4), 333–341.Google Scholar
Gessen, M (2018) How Chechnya's Leader got Banned from Facebook and Instagram. New Yorker, 26 January. www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-chechnyas-leader-got-banned-from-facebook-and-instagram.Google Scholar
Gibson, EL (2005) Boundary Control: Subnational Authoritarianism in Democratic Countries. World Politics 58(1), 101–132. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2006.0018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halbach, U (2018) Chechnya's Status Within the Russian Federation. SWP Berlin, 2 May. https://www.swpberlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2018RP02_hlb.pdf.Google Scholar
Harding, L (2008) Bitter Rival of Chechnya's Leader is Shot Dead in Russia's Capital. Guardian, 26 September. www.theguardian.com/world/2008/sep/26/chechnya.russia.Google Scholar
Hille, K (2018) How Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov Could Destabilise Russia. Financial Times, 28 August. www.ft.com/content/c8dadc00-a086-11e8-85da-eeb7a9ce36e4.Google Scholar
Hodge, N (2017) Russia Deploys Chechens to Win Hearts and Minds in Aleppo. Wall Street Journal, 1 February. www.wsj.com/articles/russia-deploys-chechens-to-win-hearts-in-aleppo-1485945005.Google Scholar
Jackson, RH and Rosberg, CG (1982) Personal Rule in Black Africa: Prince, Autocrat, Prophet, Tyrant. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jam News (2018) Relatives of Chechnya Car Accident Victims ask Republic to ‘Forgive’ Culprit – his Cousin. 20 December. https://jam-news.net/relatives-of-those-killed-in-accident-in-chechnya-publicly-ask-head-of-the-republic-to-forgivethe-culprit-his-cousin/.Google Scholar
Jia, R, Kudamatsu, M and Seim, D (2015) Political Selection in China: The Complementary Roles of Connections and Performance. Journal of the European Economic Association 13(4), 631–668. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, P (ed.) (2004) The Transformation of Central Asia: States and Societies from Soviet Rule to Independence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Kavkazskii uzel (2015) Biudzhetniki v Chechne pozhalovalis na sistematicheskiye uderzhaniya iz zarplat. [State Employees in Chechnya Complained about Systematic Deductions from Wages]. 1 June. www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/263279/.Google Scholar
Kirilenko, A (2017) Chechen Refugees in Europe: Reasons Why They Flee Russia and Asylum Problems. Legal Dialogue, 26 April. https://legal-dialogue.org/chechen-refugees-europe-reasons-flee-russia-asylum-problems.Google Scholar
Knight, A (2017) Putin's Monster. New York Review of Books, 19 May. www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/05/19/putins-monster-ramzan-kadyrov/.Google Scholar
Kofman, M, Migacheva, K, Nichiporuk, B, Radin, A, Tkacheva, O and Oberholtzer, J (2017) Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korotayev, D (2017) Guilty by Blood: How State Officials in Russia's North Caucasus Police, Provoke, and Prosecute the People with Ties to Armed Insurgents. Meduza, 31 October. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/10/31/guilty-by-blood.Google Scholar
Li, H and Zhou, LA (2005) Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China. Journal of Public Economics 89(9), 1743–1762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.06.009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malashenko, A (2015) Ramzan Kadyrov as a Federal-Level Politician. Commentary, Carnegie Moscow Center, 19 January. http://carnegie.ru/commentary/57744.Google Scholar
Marten, K (2012) Warlords: Strong-arm Brokers in Weak States. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Matsuzato, K (2004) A Populist Island in an Ocean of Clan Politics: The Lukashenka Regime as an Exception among CIS Countries. Europe-Asia Studies 56(2), 235–261. https://doi.org/10.1080/0966813042000190515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Migdal, J (1988) Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society and State Capabilities in the Third World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Morgenbesser, L (2018) Misclassification on the Mekong: The Origins of Hun Sen's Personalist Dictatorship. Democratization 25(2), 191–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1289178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moscow Times (2020) Make Putin President for Life, Chechnya's Kadyrov Says. 1 July. www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/07/01/make-putin-president-for-life-chechnyas-kadyrov-says-a70747.Google Scholar
Nemtsova, A (2016) How Putin Created a Monster in Chechnya. Politico, 16 March. www.politico.eu/article/how-putin-created-a-monster-in-chechnya/.Google Scholar
Oliphant, R (2016) Ramzan Kadyrov: Putin's ‘Sniper’ in Chechnya. Telegraph, 24 February. http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/projects/Putin-Ramzan-Kadyrov-Boris-Nemtsov-Chechnya-opposition-Kremlin/index.html.Google Scholar
Overholt, WH (1986) The Rise and Fall of Ferdinand Marcos. Asian Survey 26(11), 1137–1163. https://doi.org/10.2307/2644313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pirchner, H Jr (2019) Post Putin: Succession, Stability, and Russia's Future. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Reisinger, WM and Moraski, BJ (2017) The Regional Roots of Russia's Political Regime. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reno, W (1997) Sovereignty and Personal Rule in Zaire. African Studies Quarterly 1(3), 39–64. https://asq.africa.ufl.edu/reno_97.Google Scholar
Reuter, OJ (2013) Regional Patrons and Hegemonic Party Electoral Performance in Russia. Post-Soviet Affairs 29(2), 101–135. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2013.780410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, OJ (2017) How Kremlin Efforts to Control the Regions may be Backfiring. PONARS Policy Memo 467, 29 March. www.ponarseurasia.org/how-kremlin-efforts-to-control-the-regions-may-be-backfiring.Google Scholar
Reuter, OJ and Robertson, GB (2012) Subnational Appointments in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Russian Gubernatorial Appointments. Journal of Politics 74(4), 1023–1037. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381612000631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russell, J (2011) Chechen Elites: Control, Cooption or Substitution? Europe-Asia Studies 63(6), 1073–1087. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2011.585758.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russell, J (2014) Ramzan Kadyrov's ‘Illiberal’ Peace in Chechnya. In Le Huéron, A, Merlin, A, Regamey, A and Sieca-Lozlowski, E (eds), Chechnya at War and Beyond. London: Routledge, pp. 147–165.Google Scholar
Samphantharak, K and Malesky, EJ (2008) Predictable Corruption and Firm Investment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment and Survey of Cambodian Entrepreneurs. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3(3), 227–267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00008013.Google Scholar
Seawright, J and Gerring, J (2008) Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research: A Menu of Qualitative and Quantitative Options. Political Research Quarterly 61(2), 299–300. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1065912907313077.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sheng, Y (2009) Authoritarian Co-optation, the Territorial Dimension: Provincial Political Representation in Post-Mao China. Studies in Comparative International Development 44, 71–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9023-y.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siegel, D (2018) The Political Logic of Cadre Rotation in Post-Soviet Central Asia. Problems of Post-Communism 65(4), 253–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Šmíd, T and Mareš, M (2015) ‘Kadyrovtsy’: Russia's Counterinsurgency Strategy and the Wars of Paramilitary Clans. Journal of Strategic Studies 38(5), 650–677.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sokirianskaia, E (2017) Is Chechnya Taking Over Russia?’ New York Times, 17 August. www.nytimes.com/2017/08/17/opinion/chechnya-ramzan-kadyrov-russia.html.Google Scholar
Souleimanov, E (2005) Chechnya: Economic Renewal of Embezzlement. Prague Watchdog, 18 May. http://www.watchdog.cz/index.php?show=000000-000002-000002-000041&lang=1.Google Scholar
Souleimanov, E (2015) An Ethnography of Counterinsurgency: Kadyrovtsy and Russia's Policy of Chechenization. Post-Soviet Affairs 31(2), 91–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2014.900976.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, JK (2017) Strategic Logic of Elite Purges in Dictatorships. Comparative Political Studies 50(3), 1768–1801. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0010414016688004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, MW (2012) The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Temirkhanov, Y (2018) Kadyrov ob'yavil ubiytsu polkovnika Budanova narodnym geroyem. [Kadyrov Announced the Murderer of Colonel Budanov a National Hero]. Lenta.ru, 4 August. https://lenta.ru/news/2018/08/04/kadyrov2/.Google Scholar
Tullock, G (1987) Autocracy. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ware, RB (2009) Chechenization: Ironies and Intricacies. Brown Journal of World Affairs 15(2), 157–173.Google Scholar
Weselowsky, T (2018) Land Grab? Why The Ingush Are Furious With Chechnya. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Report, 10 October. www.rferl.org/a/explainer-ingush-chechen-land-swap/29536507.html.Google Scholar
Wintrobe, R (2000) The Political Economy of Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Woldense, J (2018) The Ruler's Game of Musical Chairs: Shuffling during the Reign of Ethiopia's Last Emperor. Social Networks 52, 154–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2017.07.002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, J (2008) Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment. American Journal of Political Science 52(2), 322–343. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00315.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yashin, I (2016) A Threat to National Security: An Independent Expert Report. Moscow: Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom. https://www.4freerussia.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2016/03/A-Threat-to-National-Security.pdf.Google Scholar
Zakharov, AV (2016) The Loyalty–Competence Trade-Off in Dictatorships and Outside Options for Subordinates. Journal of Politics 78(2), 457–466. https://doi.org/10.1086/684365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zubarevich, N (2017) The Fall of Russia's Regional Governors. Carnegie Moscow Center, 12 October. https://carnegie.ru/commentary/73369Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Tolstrup and Souleimanov supplementary material

Tolstrup and Souleimanov supplementary material

Download Tolstrup and Souleimanov supplementary material(File)
File 40.3 KB