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⁹ Posen, Restraint, p. XIII.

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²² Posen, Restraint; Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

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⁴² Sarkees and Wayman, Resort to War.

⁴³ Lebow, Why Nations Fight, pp. 156–66 and 228–47. Adding, for the sake of argument, wars caused by the command of the commons affect the results only marginally. Command or access of the commons causes war if the stakes involve the military control of the seas, or the control of strategically significant territory, such as straits, capes, harbours, and islands. Only 7 per cent or 4 inter-state wars are compatible with the access of the commons (the Russo-Turkish wars of 1828–9 and 1877–8; the British conquest of Egypt of 1882; and the Sinai War of 1956); while the figures for extra-state wars are 2.7 per cent or 3 wars (the 1816 bombardment of Algiers, the 1849 British war against Chinese pirates, and the 1863–4 Shimonoseki war).

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