Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a vector-borne infection associated with a variety of potentially serious complications and sequelae. Vaccination against TBE is strongly recommended for people living in endemic areas. There are two TBE vaccination schemes – standard and rapid – which differ in the onset of protection. With vaccination in a rapid schedule, protection starts as early as 4 weeks after the first dose and is therefore especially recommended for non-immune individuals travelling to endemic areas. Both schemes work reliably in immunocompetent individuals, but only little is known about how TBE vaccination works in people with HIV infection. Our aim was to assess the immunogenicity and safety of the rapid scheme of TBE vaccination in HIV-1 infected individuals. Concentrations of TBE-specific IgG > 126 VIEU/ml were considered protective. The seroprotection rate was 35.7% on day 28 and 39.3% on day 60. There were no differences between responders and non-responders in baseline and nadir CD4 + T lymphocytes. No serious adverse events were observed after vaccination. The immunogenicity of the TBE vaccination was unsatisfactory in our study and early protection was only achieved in a small proportion of vaccinees. Therefore, TBE vaccination with the rapid scheme cannot be recommended for HIV-1 infected individuals.

During a disease outbreak, healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to treat infected individuals. However, these HCWs are themselves susceptible to contracting the disease. As more HCWs get infected, fewer are available to provide care for others, and the overall quality of care available to infected individuals declines. This depletion of HCWs may contribute to the epidemic's severity. To examine this issue, we explicitly model declining quality of care in four differential equation-based susceptible, infected and recovered-type models with vaccination. We assume that vaccination, recovery and survival rates are affected by quality of care delivered. We show that explicitly modelling HCWs and accounting for declining quality of care significantly alters model-predicted disease outcomes, specifically case counts and mortality. Models neglecting the decline of quality of care resulting from infection of HCWs may significantly under-estimate cases and mortality. These models may be useful to inform health policy that may differ for HCWs and the general population. Models accounting for declining quality of care may therefore improve the management interventions considered to mitigate the effects of a future outbreak.

Epidemic forecasting provides an opportunity to predict geographic disease spread and counts when an outbreak occurs and plays a key role in preventing or controlling their adverse impact. However, conventional prediction models based on complex mathematical modelling rely on the estimation of model parameters, which yields unreliable and unsustainable results. Herein, we proposed a simple model for predicting the epidemic transmission dynamics based on nonlinear regression of the epidemic growth rate and iterative methods, which is applicable to the progression of the COVID-19 outbreak under the strict control measures of the Chinese government. Our model yields reliable and accurate results as confirmed by the available data: we predicted that the total number of infections in mainland China would be 91 253, and the maximum number of beds required for hospitalised patients would be 62 794. We inferred that the inflection point (when the growth rate turns from positive to negative) of the epidemic across China would be mid-February, and the end of the epidemic would be in late March. This model is expected to contribute to resource allocation and planning in the health sector while providing a theoretical basis for governments to respond to future global health crises or epidemics.

Much of our current understanding about novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comes from hospitalised patients. However, the spectrum of mild and subclinical disease has implications for population-level screening and control. Forty-nine participants were recruited from a group of 99 adults repatriated from a cruise ship with a high incidence of COVID-19. Respiratory and rectal swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Sera were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and microneutralisation assay. Symptoms, viral shedding and antibody response were examined. Forty-five participants (92%) were considered cases based on either positive PCR or positive ELISA for immunoglobulin G. Forty-two percent of cases were asymptomatic. Only 15% of symptomatic cases reported fever. Serial respiratory and rectal swabs were positive for 10% and 5% of participants respectively about 3 weeks after median symptom onset. Cycle threshold values were high (range 31–45). Attempts to isolate live virus were unsuccessful. The presence of symptoms was not associated with demographics, comorbidities or antibody response. In closed settings, incidence of COVID-19 could be almost double that suggested by symptom-based screening. Serology may be useful in diagnosis of mild disease and in aiding public health investigations.

We present the comparative characterisation of 195 non-aureus staphylococci (NAS) isolates obtained from sheep (n = 125) and humans (n = 70) in Sardinia, Italy, identified at the species level by gap gene polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis with AluI. Isolates were tested phenotypically with a disc diffusion method and genotypically by PCR, for resistance to 11 antimicrobial agents including cationic antiseptic agents. Among the ovine isolates, Staphylococcus epidermidis (n = 57), S. chromogenes (n = 29), S. haemolyticus (n = 17), S. simulans (n = 8) and S. caprae (n = 6) were the most prevalent species, while among human isolates, S. haemolyticus (n = 28) and S. epidermidis (n = 26) were predominant, followed by S. lugdunensis and S. hominis (n = 4). Of the 125 ovine isolates, 79 (63.2%) did not carry any of the resistance genes tested, while the remainder carried resistance genes for at least one antibiotic. The highest resistance rates among ovine isolates were recorded against tetracycline (20.8%), and penicillin (15.2%); none was resistant to methicillin and two exhibited multidrug resistance (MDR); one of which was positive for the antiseptic resistance smr gene. By contrast, most human isolates (59/70, 84.3%) were resistant to ⩾1 antimicrobials, and 41 (58.6%) were MDR. All 52 (74.3%) penicillin-resistant isolates possessed the blaZ gene, and 33 of 70 (47.1%) harboured the mec gene; of these, seven were characterised by the Staphylococcal Chromosomal Cassette (SCCmec) type IV, 6 the type V, 5 of type III and one representative each of type I and type II. The majority (57.1%) was erythromycin-resistant and 17 isolates carried only the efflux msrA gene, 11 the methylase ermC gene and an equal number harboured both of the latter genes. Moreover, 23 (32.8%) were tetracycline-resistant and all but one possessed only the efflux tetK gene. qacA/B and smr genes were detected in 27 (38.6%) and 18 (25.7%) human NAS, respectively. These results underline a marked difference in species distribution and antimicrobial resistance between ovine and human-derived NAS.

Healthcare staff have been at the centre of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, facing diverse work-related stressors. Building upon studies from various countries, we aimed to investigate (1) the prevalence of various work-related stressors among healthcare professionals in Germany specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) the psychological effects of these stressors in terms of clinical symptoms, and (3) the healthcare professionals' help-seeking behaviour. To this end, N = 300 healthcare professionals completed an online survey including the ICD-10 Symptom Rating checklist (ISR), event-sampling questions on pandemic-related stressors and self-formulated questions on help-seeking behaviour. Participants were recruited between 22 May and 22 July 2020. Findings were analysed using t tests, regressions and comparisons to large clinical and non-clinical samples assessed before and during the pandemic. Results show that healthcare professionals were most affected by protective measures at their workplace and changes in work procedures. Psychological symptoms, particularly anxiety and depression, were significantly more severe than in a non-clinical pre-pandemic sample and in the general population during the pandemic. At the same time, most professionals indicated that they would not seek help for psychological concerns. These findings indicate that healthcare employers need to pay greater attention to the mental health of their staff.

To understand the characteristics and influencing factors related to cluster infections in Jiangsu Province, China, we investigated case reports to explore transmission dynamics and influencing factors of scales of cluster infection. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by changes in the time-dependent reproductive number (Rt). From 25th January to 29th February, Jiangsu Province reported a total of 134 clusters involving 617 cases. Household clusters accounted for 79.85% of the total. The time interval from onset to report of index cases was 8 days, which was longer than that of secondary cases (4 days) (χ2 = 22.763, P < 0.001) and had a relationship with the number of secondary cases (the correlation coefficient (r) = 0.193, P = 0.040). The average interval from onset to report was different between family cluster cases (4 days) and community cluster cases (7 days) (χ2 = 28.072, P < 0.001). The average time interval from onset to isolation of patients with secondary infection (5 days) was longer than that of patients without secondary infection (3 days) (F = 9.761, P = 0.002). Asymptomatic patients and non-familial clusters had impacts on the size of the clusters. The average reduction in the Rt value in family clusters (26.00%, 0.26 ± 0.22) was lower than that in other clusters (37.00%, 0.37 ± 0.26) (F = 4.400, P = 0.039). Early detection of asymptomatic patients and early reports of non-family clusters can effectively weaken cluster infections.

Cyclospora cayetanensis is a parasite causing cyclosporiasis (an illness in humans). Produce (fruits, vegetables, herbs), water and soil contaminated with C. cayetanensis have been implicated in human infection. The objective was to conduct a scoping review of primary research in English on the detection, epidemiology and control of C. cayetanensis with an emphasis on produce, water and soil. MEDLINE® (Web of ScienceTM), Agricola (ProQuest), CABI Global Health, and Food Science and Technology Abstracts (EBSCOhost) were searched from 1979 to February 2020. Of the 349 relevant primary research studies identified, there were 75 detection-method studies, 40 molecular characterisation studies, 38 studies of Cyclospora in the environment (33 prevalence studies, 10 studies of factors associated with environmental contamination), 246 human infection studies (212 prevalence/incidence studies, 32 outbreak studies, 60 studies of environmental factors associated with non-outbreak human infection) and eight control studies. There appears to be sufficient literature for a systematic review of prevalence and factors associated with human infection with C. cayetanensis. There is a dearth of publicly available detection-method studies in soil (n = 0) and water (n = 2), prevalence studies on soil (n = 1) and studies of the control of Cyclospora (particularly on produce prior to retail (n = 0)).

Vaccination remains the best strategy to reduce invasive meningococcal disease. This study evaluated an investigational tetanus toxoid-conjugate quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine (MenACYW-TT) vs. a licensed tetanus toxoid-conjugate quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine (MCV4-TT) (NCT02955797). Healthy toddlers aged 12–23 months were included if they were either meningococcal vaccine-naïve or MenC conjugate (MCC) vaccine-primed (≥1 dose of MCC prior to 12 months of age). Vaccine-naïve participants were randomised 1:1 to either MenACYW-TT (n = 306) or MCV4-TT (n = 306). MCC-primed participants were randomised 2:1 to MenACYW-TT (n = 203) or MCV4-TT (n = 103). Antibody titres against each of the four meningococcal serogroups were measured by serum bactericidal antibody assay using the human complement. The co-primary objectives of this study were to demonstrate the non-inferiority of MenACYW-TT to MCV4-TT in terms of seroprotection (titres ≥1:8) at Day 30 in both vaccine-naïve and all participants (vaccine-naïve and MCC-primed groups pooled). The immune response for all four serogroups to MenACYW-TT was non-inferior to MCV4-TT in vaccine-naïve participants (seroprotection: range 83.6–99.3% and 81.4–91.6%, respectively) and all participants (seroprotection: range 83.6–99.3% and 81.4–98.0%, respectively). The safety profiles of both vaccines were comparable. MenACYW-TT was well-tolerated and demonstrated non-inferior immunogenicity when administered to MCC vaccine-primed and vaccine-naïve toddlers.

Ever since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic, there has been a public health debate concerning medical resources and supplies including hospital beds, intensive care units (ICU), ventilators and protective personal equipment (PPE). Forecasting COVID-19 dissemination has played a key role in informing healthcare professionals and governments on how to manage overburdened healthcare systems. However, forecasting during the pandemic remained challenging and sometimes highly controversial. Here, we highlight this challenge by performing a comparative evaluation for the estimations obtained from three COVID-19 surge calculators under different social distancing approaches, taking Lebanon as a case study. Despite discrepancies in estimations, the three surge calculators used herein agree that there will be a relative shortage in the capacity of medical resources and a significant surge in PPE demand if the social distancing policy is removed. Our results underscore the importance of implementing containment interventions including social distancing in alleviating the demand for medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of any medication or vaccine. The paper also highlights the value of employing several models in surge planning.

We report the development of a regression model to predict the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies on a population level based on self-reported symptoms. We assessed participant-reported symptoms in the past 12 weeks, as well as the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during a study conducted in April 2020 in Ischgl, Austria. We conducted multivariate binary logistic regression to predict seroprevalence in the sample. Participants (n = 451) were on average 47.4 years old (s.d. 16.8) and 52.5% female. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were found in n = 197 (43.7%) participants. In the multivariate analysis, three significant predictors were included and the odds ratios (OR) for the most predictive categories were cough (OR 3.34, CI 1.70–6.58), gustatory/olfactory alterations (OR 13.78, CI 5.90–32.17) and limb pain (OR 2.55, CI 1.20–6.50). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.773 (95% CI 0.727–0.820). Our regression model may be used to estimate the seroprevalence on a population level and a web application is being developed to facilitate the use of the model.

Previous studies have reported the basic reproduction number (R0) of coronavirus disease from publicly reported data that lack information such as onset of symptoms, presence of importations or known super-spreading events. Using data from the Republic of Korea, we illustrated how estimates of R0 can be biased and provided improved estimates with more detailed data. We used COVID-19 contact trace system in Korea, which can provide symptom onset date and also serial intervals between contacted people. The total R0 was estimated as 2.10 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.84–2.42). Also, early transmission of COVID-19 differed by regional or social behaviours of the population. Regions affected by a specific church cluster, which showed a rapid and silent transmission under non-official religious meetings, had a higher R0 of 2.40 (95% CI 2.08–2.77).

COVID-19, although a respiratory illness, has been clinically associated with non-respiratory symptoms. We conducted a negative case–control study to identify the symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2-positive results in Portugal. Twelve symptoms and signs included in the clinical notification of COVID-19 were selected as predictors, and the dependent variable was the RT-PCR test result. The χ2 tests were used to compare notified cases on sex, age group, health region and presence of comorbidities. The best-fit prediction model was selected using a backward stepwise method with an unconditional logistic regression. General and gastrointestinal symptoms were strongly associated with a positive test (P < 0.001). In this sense, the inclusion of general symptoms such as myalgia, headache and fatigue, as well as diarrhoea, together with actual clinical criteria for suspected cases, already updated and included in COVID-19 case definition, can lead to increased identification of cases and represent an effective strength for transmission control.

In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection generally has occurred during autumn and winter. However, a possible change in the seasonal trend of RSV infection has been observed recently. The current study was conducted to determine whether the epidemic season of RSV infection in Japan has indeed changed significantly. We used expectation-based Poisson scan statistics to detect periods with high weekly reported RSV cases (epidemic cluster), and the epidemic clusters were detected between September and December in the 2012–2016 seasons while those were detected between July and October in the 2017–2019 seasons. Non-linear and linear ordinary least squares regression models were built to evaluate whether there is a difference in year trend in the epidemic seasonality, and the epidemic season was shifted to earlier in the year in 2017–2019 compared to that in 2012–2016. Although the reason for the shift is unclear, this information may help in clinical practice and public health.

Laboratory data increasingly suggest that Salmonella infection may contribute to colon cancer (CC) development. Here, we examined epidemiologically the potential risk of CC associated with salmonellosis in the human population. We conducted a population-based cohort study using four health registries in Denmark. Person-level demographic data of all residents were linked to laboratory-confirmed non-typhoidal salmonellosis and to CC diagnoses in 1994–2016. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CC (overall/proximal/distal) associated with reported salmonellosis were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Potential effects of serovar, age, sex, inflammatory bowel disease and follow-up time post-infection were also assessed. We found no increased risk of CC ≥1 year post-infection (HR 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88–1.13). When stratifying by serovar, there was a significantly increased risk of proximal CC ≥1 year post-infection with serovars other than Enteritidis and Typhimurium (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.03–1.90). CC risk was significantly increased in the first year post-infection (HR 2.08; 95% CI 1.48–2.93). The association between salmonellosis and CC in the first year post-infection can be explained by increased stool testing around the time of CC diagnosis. The association between proximal CC and non-Enteritidis/non-Typhimurium serovars is unclear and warrants further investigation. Overall, this study provides epidemiological evidence that notified Salmonella infections do not contribute significantly to CC risk in the studied population.

Cats represent a potential source of Coxiella burnetii, the aetiological agent of Q fever in humans. The prevalence and risk factors of C. burnetii infection in farm, pet and feral cats were studied in Quebec, Canada, using a cross-sectional study. Serum samples were tested using a specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the presence of antibodies against C. burnetii, whereas rectal swabs were assayed using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for the molecular detection of the bacteria. Potential risk factors for farm cats were investigated using clinical examinations, questionnaires and results from a concurrent study on C. burnetii farm status. A total of 184 cats were tested: 59 from ruminant farms, 73 pets and 52 feral cats. Among farm cats, 2/59 (3.4%) were ELISA-positive, 3/59 (5.1%) were ELISA-doubtful and 1/59 (1.7%) was qPCR-positive. All pets and feral cats were negative to C. burnetii ELISA and qPCR. Farm cat positivity was associated with a positive C. burnetii status on the ruminant farm (prevalence ratio = 7.6, P = 0.03). Our results suggest that although pet and feral cats do not seem to pose a great C. burnetii risk to public health, more active care should be taken when in contact with cats from ruminant farms.

The role of anthropometric status on dengue is uncertain. We investigated the relations between anthropometric characteristics (height, body mass index and waist circumference (WC)) and two dengue outcomes, seropositivity and hospitalisation, in a cross-sectional study of 2038 children (aged 2–15 years) and 408 adults (aged 18–72 years) from Bucaramanga, Colombia. Anthropometric variables were standardised by age and sex in children. Seropositivity was determined through immunoglobulin G antibodies; past hospitalisation for dengue was self-reported. We modelled the prevalence of each outcome by levels of anthropometric exposures using generalised estimating equations with restricted cubic splines. In children, dengue seropositivity was 60.8%; 9.9% of seropositive children reported prior hospitalisation for dengue. WC was positively associated with seropositivity in girls (90th vs. 10th percentile adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.36). Among adults, dengue seropositivity was 95.1%; 8.1% of seropositive adults reported past hospitalisation. Height was inversely associated with seropositivity (APR = 0.90; 95% CI 0.83–0.99) and with hospitalisation history (APR = 0.19; 95% CI 0.04–0.79). WC was inversely associated with seropositivity (APR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.81–0.98). We conclude that anthropometry correlates with a history of dengue, but could not determine causation. Prospective studies are warranted to enhance causal inference on these questions.

People in prison are disproportionately affected by viral hepatitis. To examine the current epidemiology of and responses targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) in prisons across the European Union, European Economic Area and United Kingdom, we analysed HBV-specific data from the World Health Organization's Health in Prisons European Database and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control's hepatitis B prevalence database. Hepatitis B surface antigen seroprevalence ranged from 0% in a maximum-security prison in United Kingdom to 25.2% in two Bulgarian juvenile detention centres. Universal HBV screening on opt-out basis and vaccination were reported available in 31% and 85% of 25 countries, respectively. Disinfectants, condoms and lubricants were offered free of charge in all prisons in the country by 26%, 46% and 15% of 26 countries, respectively. In 38% of reporting countries, unsupervised partner visits with the possibility for sexual intercourse was available in all prisons. The findings are suggestive of high HBV prevalence amidst suboptimal coverage of interventions in prisons. A harmonised monitoring system and robust data at national and regional levels are needed to better understand the HBV situation in prisons within the framework of the European action plan and Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis.

The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of spatial dispersion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil by correlating them to socioeconomic indicators. This is an ecological study of COVID-19 cases and deaths between 26 February and 31 July 2020. All Brazilian counties were used as units of analysis. The incidence, mortality, Bayesian incidence and mortality rates, global and local Moran indices were calculated. A geographic weighted regression analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 and socioeconomic indicators (independent variables). There were confirmed 2 662 485 cases of COVID-19 reported in Brazil from February to July 2020 with higher rates of incidence in the north and northeast. The Moran global index of incidence rate (0.50, P = 0.01) and mortality (0.45 with P = 0.01) indicate a positive spatial autocorrelation with high standards in the north, northeast and in the largest urban centres between cities in the southeast region. In the same period, there were 92 475 deaths from COVID-19, with higher mortality rates in the northern states of Brazil, mainly Amazonas, Pará and Amapá. The results show that there is a geospatial correlation of COVID-19 in large urban centres and regions with the lowest human development index in the country. In the geographic weighted regression, it was possible to identify that the percentage of people living in residences with density higher than 2 per dormitory, the municipality human development index (MHDI) and the social vulnerability index were the indicators that most contributed to explaining incidence, social development index and the municipality human development index contributed the most to the mortality model. We hope that the findings will contribute to reorienting public health responses to combat COVID-19 in Brazil, the new epicentre of the disease in South America, as well as in other countries that have similar epidemiological and health characteristics to those in Brazil.