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Knowing the burden of influenza is helpful for policy decisions. Here we estimated the contribution of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza among all clinic visits in a Senegal sentinel network. ILI data from ten sentinel sites were collected from January 2013 to December 2015. ILI was defined as an axillary measured fever of more than 37.5 °C with a cough or a sore throat. Collected nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza viruses by rRT-PCR. Influenza-associated ILI was defined as ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza. For the influenza disease burden estimation, we used all-case outpatient visits during the study period who sought care at selected sites. Of 4030 ILI outpatients tested, 1022 were influenza positive. The estimated proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI was, per 100 outpatients, 1.2 (95% CI 1.1–1.3), 0.32 (95% CI 0.28–0.35), 1.11 (95% CI 1.05–1.16) during 2013, 2014, 2015, respectively. The age-specific outpatient visits proportions of influenza-associated ILI were higher among children under 5 years (0.68%, 95% CI: 0.62–0.70). The predominant virus during years 2013 and 2015 was influenza B while A/H3N2 subtype was predominant during 2014. Influenza viruses cause a substantial burden of outpatient visits particularly among children under 5 of age in Senegal and highlight the need of vaccination in risk groups.
Understanding the burden of respiratory pathogens on health care is key to improving public health emergency response and interventions. In temperate regions, there is a large seasonal rise in influenza and other respiratory pathogens. We have examined the associations between individual pathogens and reported respiratory tract infections to estimate attributable burden. We used multiple linear regression to model the relationship between doctor consultation data and laboratory samples from week 3 2011 until week 37 2015. We fitted separate models for consultation data with in-hours and out-of-hours doctor services, stratified by different age bands. The best fitting all ages models (R2 > 80%) for consultation data resulted in the greatest burden being associated with influenza followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). For models of adult age bands, there were significant associations between consultation data and invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae. There were also smaller numbers of consultations significantly associated with rhinovirus, parainfluenza, and human metapneumovirus. We estimate that a general practice with 10 000 patients would have seen an additional 18 respiratory tract infection consultations per winter week of which six had influenza and four had RSV. Our results are important for the planning of health care services to minimise the impact of winter pressures.
• Respiratory pathogen incidence explains over 80% of seasonal variation in respiratory consultation data.
• Influenza and RSV are associated with the biggest seasonal rises in respiratory consultation counts.
• A third of consultation counts associated with respiratory pathogens were due to influenza.
Since April 2014 all presumptive Salmonella isolates received by Public Health England (PHE) have been characterised using whole genome sequencing (WGS) and the genomic data generated used to identify clusters of infection. To inform the implementation and development of a national gastrointestinal infection surveillance system based on WGS we have retrospectively identified genetically related clusters of Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium infection over a one year period and determined the distribution of these clusters by PHE operational levels. Using a constrained WGS cluster definition based on single nucleotide polymorphism distance, case frequency and temporal spread we demonstrate that the majority of clusters spread to multiple PHE operational levels. The greatest investigative burden is on national level staff investigating small, geographically dispersed clusters. We also demonstrate that WGS identifies long-running, slowly developing clusters that may previously have remained undetected. This analysis also indicates likely increased workload for local health protection teams and will require an operational strategy to balance limited human resources with the public health importance of investigating small, geographically contained clusters of highly related cases. While there are operational challenges to its implementation, integrated cluster detection based on WGS from local to international level will provide further improvements in the identification of, response to and control of clusters of Salmonella spp. with public health significance.
This study evaluated the annual prevalence of anogenital warts (AGW) caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) and analysed the trend in annual per cent changes (APC) by using national claims data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment of Korea, 2007–2015. We also estimated the socio-economic burden and co-morbidities of AGW. All analyses were performed based on data for primary A63.0, the specific diagnosis code for AGW. The socio-economic cost of AGW was calculated based on the direct medical cost, direct non-medical cost and indirect cost. The overall AGW prevalence and socio-economic burden has increased during the last 9 years. However, the prevalence of AGW differed significantly by sex. The female prevalence increased until 2012, and decreased thereafter (APC + 3·6%). It would fall after the introduction of routine HPV vaccination, principally for females, in Korea. The male prevalence increased continuously over time (APC + 11·6%), especially in those aged 20–49 years. Referring to the increasing AGW prevalence and its disease burden, active HPV infection control surveillance and prevention in males are worth consideration.
Childhood varicella vaccination has not yet been introduced in the UK. To inform decision-making about future vaccine programmes, data on the burden of varicella in general practice over a 10-year period (01/01/2005–31/12/2014) was calculated by age and ethnicity, using anonymised data from >8 million individuals in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Varicella consultations peaked at 20 603 in 2007, then decreased annually in all age groups to 11 243 in 2014. Each year, consultation rates were common among infants, were highest among 1–3 year olds (61·2 consultations/1000 person-years in 2007, 39·7/1000 person-years in 2014) and then fell with increasing age to <1·0/1000 person-years at ages ⩾20 years. Varicella acquisition appeared to be delayed in some ethnic groups, with lower consultation rates for children aged <3 years but increased rates for older children and adults aged ⩽40 years among those of black African, Afro-Caribbean, South Asian or other Asian ethnicity. Decreasing general practice consultation rates over time could reflect changes in healthcare utilisation, with patients seeking care in alternative settings such as Accident and Emergency Departments, although current data prevent full assessment of this. Availability of data on varicella diagnoses across all health settings would enable estimation of the total healthcare burden due to varicella and the cost-effectiveness of introducing varicella vaccination.
Individuals with chronic respiratory conditions may be at increased risk for pertussis. We conducted a retrospective administrative claims analysis to examine the incidence and economic burden of diagnosed pertussis among adolescents and adults in the USA with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. Patients aged ⩾11 years with diagnosed pertussis and pre-existing COPD (n = 343) or asthma (n = 1041) were matched 1:1 to patients with diagnosed pertussis but without COPD or asthma. Differences in all-cause costs (‘excess’ costs) during the 45-day and 3-month and 6-month periods before and after the pertussis index date were calculated; adjusted excess costs were estimated via multivariate regressions. The incidence of diagnosed pertussis was higher among patients with COPD or asthma than among matched patients. Compared with matched patients, patients with pertussis and pre-existing COPD or asthma accrued greater all-cause adjusted costs across study periods ($3694 and $1193 more, respectively, in the 45-day period; $4173 and $1301 more in the 3-month period; and $6154 and $1639 more in the 6-month period; all P < 0·0001). Patients with pre-existing COPD or asthma experience an increased economic burden after diagnosed pertussis and may especially benefit from targeted tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccination strategies.
Seasonal respiratory illnesses present a major burden on primary care services. We assessed the burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5–14 years, and adults over 65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was calls for ‘cold/flu’, whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory surveillance programme.