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Ontario Municipal Elections: Voting Trends and Determinants of Electoral Success in a Canadian Province*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Joseph Kushner
Affiliation:
Brock University
David Siegel
Affiliation:
Brock University
Hannah Stanwick
Affiliation:
University of Toronto

Abstract

This article examines voting trends in recent Ontario elections and the impact of incumbency, gender, campaign expenditures and the number of candidates per seat on the electoral success of a candidate. Voter turnout is found to be consistently lower in larger cities. The number of females holding office has increased over time, with large cities having the highest proportion of females in office. As candidates, males and females have similar success rates. Incumbency provides a huge advantage, especially in large cities. The level of campaign spending also has a significant effect as does the number of candidates contesting a seat.

Résumé

Cette étude examine la structure de vote lors des récentes élections dans la province canadienne de l'Ontario ainsi que le rapport entre le sexe du candidat, la durée de la période en fonction de la présence antérieure au gouvernement, les dépenses électorates et le succès électoral du candidat. Le taux de participation électoral dans les grandes villes est toujours moins élevé. Au cours de la période examinée, le nombre de femmes occupant des fonctions s'est accru et ce, surtout dans les grandes villes où la proportion de femmes élues au gouvernement est plus élevée. Il est à noter aussi que la durée de la période d'exercice d'un candidat déjà en fonction contribue à son succés dans les grandes centres urbains. Les défenses électorales ainsi que le nombre de candidats se présentant aux élections jouent un rôle important.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1997

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References

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14 In Ontario, municipalities can initiate the change from one system to another, but if there are any objections (and there almost always are), then there is a hearing before the Ontario Municipal Board, a quasi-judicial provincial regulatory agency, which is both time-consuming and expensive.

15 A good discussion of the difficulty women have in being nominated is contained in Erickson, Lynda, “Making Her Way In: Women, Parties and Candidacies in Canada,” in Lovenduski, Joni and Norris, Pippa, eds., Gender and Party Politics (London: Sage Publications, 1993), 6085.Google Scholar

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17 Our results are consistent with those of Darcy, Welch and Clark who did not find support for the “desirability hypothesis” advanced in the US literature (Women, Elections and Representation).

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19 Female success rates, however, might tend to decline as their numbers approached those of men.

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25 R.S.O. 1990, c. M.53, s. 150.