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Temperature-based phenology model for predicting the present and future establishment and distribution of recently invasive Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) in India

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 October 2021

T. V. Prasad ,
M. Srinivasa Rao Open the ORCID record for M. Srinivasa Rao [Opens in a new window] ,
K. V. Rao ,
S. K. Bal ,
Y. Muttapa ,
J. S. Choudhary  and
V. K. Singh
T. V. Prasad
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
M. Srinivasa Rao*
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
K. V. Rao*
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
S. K. Bal
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
Y. Muttapa
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
J. S. Choudhary
Affiliation:
ICAR-RCER, Farming System Research Centre for Hill and Plateau Region, Plandu, Ranchi-834 010, Jharkhand, India
V. K. Singh
Affiliation:
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad-500 059, Telangana, India
*
Author for correspondence: M. Srinivasa Rao, Email: msrao909@gmail.com, Ms.rao@icar.gov.in
Author for correspondence: M. Srinivasa Rao, Email: msrao909@gmail.com, Ms.rao@icar.gov.in
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Abstract

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) is a polyphagous and highly destructive invasive insect pest of many crops. It was recently introduced into India and widely reported in almost all parts of India. Development of a temperature-based phenology model for predicting its rate of development and distribution will help in understanding the establishment and further spread of introduced invasive insect pests. Development, survival and reproduction parameters of S. frugiperda at six constant temperature conditions (15, 20, 25, 27, 30 and 35°C) were investigated and further validated with data generated under fluctuating temperature conditions. The estimated lower developmental threshold temperatures were 12.1°C for eggs, 11°C for larvae, 12.2°C for pupae, 15.13°C for males and 12.66°C for females. Degree-day (DD) requirements for the development of the different stages of S. frugiperda were 50, 250 and 200 DD for egg, larva and pupa, respectively. The best-fitted functions were compiled for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which was stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. The developed phenology model predicted temperature ranges between 27 and 30°C as favourable for S. frugiperda development, survival and reproduction. The results revealed that maximum net reproductive rate (215.66 females/female/generation) and total fecundity (981.08 individuals/female/generation) were attained at 30°C constant temperature. The mean length of generations decreased from 74.29 days at 15°C to 38.74 days at 30°C. The maximum intrinsic rate of increase (0.138 females/female/day) and shortest doubling time (4.9 days) were also observed at 30°C. Results of simulated life table parameters showed high temperature-dependent development of S. frugiperda and complete development within all the tested constant temperature ranges (15–35°C). Simulated life table parameters for predicting risk indices of S. frugiperda in India indicated a significant increase in activity indices and establishment risk indices with a higher number of generations during future (2050 and 2070) climatic change scenarios compared to present conditions. Our results indicate that India will be highly suitable for the establishment and survival of S. frugiperda in future time periods.

Keywords

Establishment risk indexfall armywormlife tablephenology modeltemperature
Type
Research Paper
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 112 , Issue 2 , April 2022 , pp. 271 - 285
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Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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