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Is Minimax Regret Applicable to Voting Decisions?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Lawrence S. Mayer
Affiliation:
Princeton University
I. J. Good
Affiliation:
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and, State University

Extract

In a recent article (“The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis,” APSR, 68 [June, 1974], 525–536) John Ferejohn and Morris Fiorina suggest that a (potential) voter may be rational in deciding whether to vote and yet not use the expected-utility calculus introduced for this purpose by Downs and Tullock and extended by Riker and Ordeshook. The authors suggest that a rational voter, in deciding whether to vote, may use the minimax regret criterion due to the late L. J. Savage. Define the regret of an Act A as the difference, if the true state of nature were known (in advance), between the best expected payoff that could be obtained and the expected payoff that would be obtained by act A. Then the minimax regret criterion requires the decision maker to act in such a way as to minimize the maximum regret that he can suffer.

They also discuss the fact that the minimax regret criterion does not require the voter to supply any (objective or subjective) estimates of the probabilities associated with the various outcomes of the election. Thus they feel that it is an attractive criterion for decision making under “uncertainty” as opposed to decision making under “risk.”

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1975

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References

1 Savage (in The Foundations of Statistics), preferred the term “loss” to “regret” in this context, but “regret” is now the more standard term because of another technical meaning for “loss.”

2 For example, Good, I. J., Probability and the Weighing of Evidence (London: Charles Griffin; New York: Hafners, 1950)Google Scholar.

3 For example, Good, I. J., “Rational decisions,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B, 14 (1952), 107114 Google Scholar.