Seventeen years into the life of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), two key issues stand out: first, that the preference utilization rate—as indicated by the meagre increases in African exports to the United States—remains marginal; and second, that the AGOA initiative has not helped build diversified African economies. This reality in turn raises two critical issues: that Africa's structural challenges need to be addressed; and that extensions of the AGOA in and of themselves may not be the solution for the continent's economic development. Therefore, looking toward 2025 is an opportunity to have a fresh discussion with the United States, one focused on placing the African economic development challenge at the heart of the dialogue. This requires designing a new model grounded in Africa's aspirations for structural transformation of its economies from primary product to industrial product exporters.

This essay assesses and evaluates the extent to which the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) increased imports from AGOA eligible countries to the United States from 2001 to 2015. The essay then examines how African countries can make the most of the preferences granted under AGOA, arguing that AGOA national utilization strategies have proven successful. In the final part, the essay explores options for future U.S.-Africa trade relations after the AGOA expires in 2025, proposing approaches that would best support African development. In this regard, this essay argues that, since Congress is unlikely to renew AGOA in its current form and since AGOA will likely be replaced with an arrangement requiring some degree of reciprocity, it will be very important for (1) the African Union's Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) to be implemented before any new U.S.-Africa trading arrangement comes into force and (2) for negotiations for any future U.S.-Africa trading arrangement not to mimic the negotiations conducted for the Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union.

This essay examines the challenges and opportunities for regional trade lawmaking in the U.S.-Africa relationship. On the eve of the conclusion of an African continental free trade agreement, the U.S. trade law relationship with the continent remains focused on regional groups. Questions remain as to whether the existing trade law regime offers the flexibility necessary to accommodate alternative models to free trade agreements that may best serve the needs of African and U.S. constituencies. The essay proceeds in four parts. First, I sketch the current state of play in U.S.-Africa trade relations. Next, I outline how the U.S. and African approaches to trade lawmaking have differed. I then turn to two sets of challenges—one domestic and one international—that may impede innovation in developing a U.S.-Africa trade law relationship consistent with African interests. Finally, the essay concludes with an exploration of possible alternatives and issues not yet considered in the transcontinental dialogue on trade.

In an era in which multilateral trade arrangements have garnered more public notoriety than ever before, the suboptimal trade and investment relationship between America and Africa, as underpinned by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), is one of the less controversial ones. AGOA could nevertheless use some adjustments or augmentations to facilitate deeper U.S.-Africa commercial relations. For instance, adjusting AGOA's origin rules could nudge the private sector on both sides of the Atlantic towards gains for U.S. and African employment and the reduction of trade deficits. Africa must leverage the period before AGOA expires to redefine its trade relationship with the United States in innovative ways. The United States should welcome these measures, since the type of value that Africa would add to the global supply chain would not replace the high-quality jobs that the Trump Administration would like to see in the United States. In fact, this type of production would make U.S. manufacturing more competitive.