Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T00:38:04.094Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Kyoto Protocol: Economic Effects of Energy Prices on Northern Plains Dryland Grain Production

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

John M. Antle ,
Susan M. Capalbo ,
James B. Johnson  and
Dragan Miljkovic
Get access

Abstract

This study examined possible economic impacts on Northern Plains grain producers of policies that could be undertaken by the United States to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The paper begins with a discussion of the potential effects of the Kyoto Protocol on prices of energy and inputs used in agricultural production. The next section describes the data and econometric models that were used to develop a field-scale, stochastic simulation model of the crop production system typical of the Northern Plains. This model is based on econometric production models estimated with a spatially referenced, statistically representative sample of farmers in Montana. The simulation analysis shows that the impacts of higher energy prices would tend to discourage the use of fallow, raise variable costs of production by 3 to 13%, and reduce net returns above variable cost by 6 to 18% in the case of spring wheat grown on fallow. Under the higher cost scenarios assumed in an analysis conducted by the Farm Bureau, production costs for spring wheat on fallow would increase by 15 to 27% and net returns would decline by 15 to 24%.

Type
Agricultural and Resource Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Information
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , Volume 28 , Issue 1 , April 1999 , pp. 96 - 105
Copyright
Copyright © 1999 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Antle, J.M. 1996. “Methodological Issues in Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture.” 1996. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 80: 67–85.Google Scholar
Antle, J.M., Crissman, C.C., and Capalbo, S.M. 1998. “Econometric and Simulation Modeling of the Carchi Potato Production System.” In Crissman, C.C., Antle, J.M., and Capalbo, S.M., eds., Economic, Environmental, and Health Tradeoffs in Agriculture: Pesticides and the Sustainability of Andean Potato Production. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Antle, J.M., Capalbo, S.M., Johnson, J.B. and Zidack, W.E. 1998. “A Spatially-Explicit, Econometrics-Based Stochastic Simulation Model of Montana Dryland Grain Production.” Research Discussion Paper 21, Trade Research Center, Montana State University (October).Google Scholar
Antle, J.M., Capalbo, S.M., Johnson, J.B., and Zidack, W.E. 1999. “Grain Prices, Net Returns, and Land Use in the Northern Plains.” In Antle, J. and Smith, V., eds., Economics of World Wheat Markets. CAB International, in press.Google Scholar
Chicago Board of Trade. 1996. Fourth Annual Auction of Pollution Allowances (March 26).Google Scholar
Council of Economic Advisers. 1998. The Kyoto Protocol and the President's Policies to Address Climate Change: Administration Economic Analysis. Executive Office of the President. Washington, D.C. (July).Google Scholar
Francl, T. 1997. “Potential Economic Impact of the Global Climate Treaty on the Agricultural Sector.” American Farm Bureau Federation, Park Ridge, IL (September).Google Scholar
Johnson, J.B., Zidack, W.E., Capalbo, S.M., Antle, J.M., Webb, D.F. 1997. “Farm-Level Characteristics of Larger Central and Eastern Montana Farms with Annually-Planted Dryland Crops.” Departmental Special Report #21. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University.Google Scholar
Johnson, J.B., Zidack, W.E., Capalbo, S.M., Antle, J.M. 1998a. “Production Costs for Annually-Planted Crops Produced on Dryland Cropland, Northeastern Montana MLRA 53A.” Departmental Special Report #25. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University.Google Scholar
Johnson, J.B., Zidack, W.E., Capalbo, S.M., Antle, J.M. 1998b. “Production Costs for Annually-Planted Crops Produced on Dryland Cropland, East Central Montana MLRA 54.” Departmental Special Report #26. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University.Google Scholar
Johnson, J.B., Zidack, W.E., Capalbo, S.M., Antle, J.M. 1998c. “Production Costs for Annually-Planted Crops Produced on Dryland Cropland, Southeastern Montana MLRA 58A.” Departmental Special Report #27. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University.Google Scholar
Johnson, J.B., Zidack, W.E., Capalbo, S.M., Antle, J.M. 1998d. “Production Costs for Annually-Planted Crops Produced on Dryland Cropland, Northern Montana MLRA 52.” Departmental Special Report #28. Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University.Google Scholar
Joskow, P.L., Schmalensee, R., Bailey, E.M. 1998. “The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions.” American Economic Review 88: 669–685.Google Scholar
Just, R.E., Zilberman, D., and Hochman, E. 1983. “Estimation of Multicrop Production Functions.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65: 770–80.Google Scholar
Kopp, R.J. and Anderson, J.W. 1998. “Estimating the Costs of Kyoto: How Plausible Are the Clinton Administration's Figures?” Resources for the Future. Washington, D.C. (March 12).Google Scholar
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1998. Report on the Conference of the Parties on Its Third Session Held at Kyoto, Addendum, Part Two: Action Taken by the Conference of the Parties at Its Third Session. FCCC/CP/1997/7/Add. 1 (18 March).Google Scholar
Wiese, A.M. and Tierney, B. 1996. “The Cost Impacts of a Carbon Tax on U.S. Manufacturing Industries and Other Sectors.” Research Study #081. Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, American Petroleum Institute (June).Google Scholar
Yellen, J. 1998. Testimony Before the House Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power on the Economics of the Kyoto Protocol (March 4).Google Scholar