We study a random field obtained by counting the number of balls containing a given point when overlapping balls are thrown at random according to a Poisson random measure. We describe a microscopic process which exhibits multifractional behavior. We are particularly interested in the local asymptotic self-similarity (LASS) properties of the field, as well as in its X-ray transform. We obtain two different LASS properties when considering the asymptotics either in law or in the sense of second-order moments, and prove a relationship between the LASS behavior of the field and the LASS behavior of its X-ray transform. These results can be used to model and analyze porous media, images, or connection networks.

We extend the boson process first to a large class of Cox processes and second to an even larger class of infinitely divisible point processes. Density and moment results are studied in detail. These results are obtained in closed form as weighted permanents, so the extension is called a permanental process. Temporal extensions and a particularly tractable case of the permanental process are also studied. Extensions of the fermion process along similar lines, leading to so-called determinantal processes, are discussed.

The existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimators for the time and range parameters in random sequential adsorption models are investigated.

A bookmaker takes bets on a two-horse race, attempting to minimise expected loss over all possible outcomes of the race. Profits are controlled by manipulation of customers' betting behaviour, which is assumed to be determined uniquely by the price quoted for each horse. We consider different strategies for choosing these prices as bets accumulate, and examine the penalty incurred by the use of a strategy other than the optimal one, in the general case where the distribution of the customers' betting probabilities is unknown.

We consider the portfolio optimization problem of maximizing the asymptotic growth rate under a combination of fixed and proportional costs. Expressing the asymptotic growth rate in terms of the risky fraction process, the problem can be transformed to that of controlling a diffusion in one dimension. Then we use the corresponding quasivariational inequalities to obtain the explicit shape together with the existence of an optimal impulse control strategy. This optimal strategy is given by only four parameters: two for the stopping boundaries and two for the new risky fractions the investor chooses at these times.

We analyse SIS epidemics among populations partitioned into households. The analysis considers both the stochastic and deterministic models and, unlike in previous analyses, we consider general infectious period distributions. For the deterministic model, we prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for the epidemic if and only if the threshold parameter, R*, is greater than 1. Furthermore, by utilising Markov chains we show that the total number of infectives converges to the endemic equilibrium as t → ∞. For the stochastic model, we prove a law of large numbers result for the convergence, to the deterministic limit, of the mean number of infectives per household. This is followed by the derivation of a Gaussian limit process for the fluctuations of the stochastic model.

In this paper we develop methods for reducing the study, the computation, and the construction of stochastic functionals to those of standard concepts such as the moments of the pertinent random variables. Principally, our methods are based on the notion of ladder height densities and their Laguerre expansions, and our results provide a unifying framework for the distinct approaches of Dufresne (2000) and Schröder (2005).

In this paper we develop a constructive structure theory for a class of exponential functionals of Brownian motion which includes Asian option values. This is done in two stages of differing natures. As a first step, the functionals are represented as Laguerre reduction series obtained from main results of Schröder (2006), this paper's companion paper. These reduction series are new and given in terms of the negative moments of the integral of geometric Brownian motion, whose structure theory is developed in a second step. Providing a new angle on these processes, this is done by establishing connections with theta functions. Integral representations and computable formulae for the negative moments are thus derived and then shown to furnish highly efficient ways for computing the negative moments. Application of this paper's Laguerre reduction series in numerical examples suggests that one of the most efficient methods for the explicit valuation of Asian options is obtained. The paper also provides mathematical background results referred to in Schröder (2005c).

Let F(x) denote a distribution function in Rd and let F*n(x) denote the nth convolution power of F(x). In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behaviour of 1 - F*n(x) as x tends to ∞ in a certain prescribed way. It turns out that in many cases 1 - F*n(x) ∼ n(1 - F(x)). To obtain results of this type, we introduce and use a form of subexponential behaviour, thereby extending the notion of multivariate regular variation. We also discuss subordination, in which situation the index n is replaced by a random index N.

We consider growing random recursive trees in random environments, in which at each step a new vertex is attached (by an edge of random length) to an existing tree vertex according to a probability distribution that assigns the tree vertices masses proportional to their random weights. The main aim of the paper is to study the asymptotic behaviour of the distance from the newly inserted vertex to the tree's root and that of the mean numbers of outgoing vertices as the number of steps tends to ∞. Most of the results are obtained under the assumption that the random weights have a product form with independent, identically distributed factors.

We propose a simple model for interaction between gene candidates in the two strands of bacterial DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid). Our model assumes that ‘final’ genes appear in one of the two strands, that they do not overlap (in bacteria there is only a small percentage of overlap), and that the final genes maximize the occupancy rate, which is defined to be the proportion of the genome occupied by coding zones. We are more concerned with describing the organization and distribution of genes in bacterial DNA than with the very hard problem of identifying genes. To this end, an algorithm for selecting the final genes according to the previously outlined maximization criterion is proposed. We study the graphical and probabilistic properties of the model resulting from applying the maximization procedure to a Markovian representation of the genic and intergenic zones within the DNA strands, develop theoretical bounds on the occupancy rate (which, in our view, is a rather intractable quantity), and use the model to compute quantities of relevance to the Escherichia coli genome and compare these to annotation data. Although this work focuses on genomic modelling, we point out that the proposed model is not restricted to applications in this setting. It also serves to model other resource allocation problems.

We consider an epidemic model where the spread of the epidemic can be described by a discrete-time Galton-Watson branching process. Between times n and n + 1, any infected individual is detected with unknown probability π and the numbers of these detected individuals are the only observations we have. Detected individuals produce a reduced number of offspring in the time interval of detection, and no offspring at all thereafter. If only the generation sizes of a Galton-Watson process are observed, it is known that one can only estimate the first two moments of the offspring distribution consistently on the explosion set of the process (and, apart from some lattice parameters, no parameters that are not determined by those moments). Somewhat surprisingly, in our context, where we observe a binomially distributed subset of each generation, we are able to estimate three functions of the parameters consistently. In concrete situations, this often enables us to estimate π consistently, as well as the mean number of offspring. We apply the estimators to data for a real epidemic of classical swine fever.

Autoregressive arrival models are described by a few parameters and provide a simple means to obtain analytical models for matching the first- and second-order statistics of measured data. We consider a discrete-time queueing system where the service time of a customer occupies one slot and the arrival process is governed by a discrete autoregressive process of order 1 (a DAR(1) process) which is characterized by an arbitrary stationary batch size distribution and a correlation coefficient. The tail behaviors of the queue length and the waiting time distributions are examined. In particular, it is shown that, unlike in the classical queueing models with Markovian arrival processes, the correlation in the DAR(1) model results in nongeometric tail behavior of the queue length (and the waiting time) if the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has infinite support. A complete characterization of the geometric tail behavior of the queue length (and the waiting time) is presented, showing the impact of the stationary distribution and the correlation coefficient when the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has finite support. It is also shown that the stationary distribution of the queue length (and the waiting time) has a tail of regular variation with index -β − 1, by finding an explicit expression for the tail asymptotics when the stationary distribution of the DAR(1) process has a tail of regular variation with index -β.

The ‘square root formula’ in the Internet transmission control protocol (TCP) states that if the probability p of packet loss becomes small and there is independence between packets, then the stationary distribution of the congestion window W is such that the distribution of W√p is almost independent of p and is completely characterizable. This paper gives an elementary proof of the convergence of the stationary distributions for a much wider class of processes that includes classical TCP as well as T. Kelly's ‘scalable TCP’. This paper also gives stochastic dominance results that translate to a rate of convergence.

In this paper our object is to show that a certain class of nonstationary random processes can locally be approximated by stationary processes. The class of processes we are considering includes the time-varying autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes, amongst others. The measure of deviation from stationarity can be expressed as a function of a derivative random process. This derivative process inherits many properties common to stationary processes. We also show that the derivative processes obtained here have alpha-mixing properties.