Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ws8qp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T21:23:35.571Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Developmental Criminology and the Crime Decline

A Comparative Analysis of the Criminal Careers of Two New South Wales Birth Cohorts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 October 2020

Jason L. Payne
Affiliation:
Australian National University, Canberra
Alexis R. Piquero
Affiliation:
University of Miami and Monash University

Summary

Throughout the 1990s many countries around the world experienced the beginnings of what would later become the most significant and protracted decline in crime ever recorded. Although not a universal experience, the so-called international crime-drop was an unpredicted and unprecedented event which now offers fertile ground for reflection on many of criminology's key theories and debates. Through the lens of developmental and life-course criminology, this Element compares the criminal offending trajectories of two Australian birth cohorts born ten years apart in 1984 and 1994. It finds that the crime-drop was unlikely the result of any significant change in the prevalence or persistence of early-onset and chronic offending, but the disproportionate disappearance of their low-rate, adolescent-onset peers. Despite decades of research that has prioritized interventions for at-risk chronic offenders, it seems our greatest global crime prevention achievement to date was in reducing the prevalence of criminal offending in the general population.
Get access
Type
Element
Information
Online ISBN: 9781108882149
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 22 October 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aebi, M. F., & Linde, A. (2010). Is there a crime drop in Western Europe? European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 16(4), 251277.Google Scholar
Aebi, M. F., & Linde, A. (2012). Conviction statistics as an indicator of crime trends in Europe from 1990 to 2006. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 18(1), 1303–1144. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10610-011-9166-7Google Scholar
Agnew, R. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30(1), 4788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agnew, R. (1997). Stability and change in crime over the life course: A strain theory explanation. In Thornberry, T. P. (ed.), Developmental Theories of Crime and Delinquency (Vol. 7, pp. 101132). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Andersen, L. H., Anker, A. S. T., & Andersen, S. H. (2016). A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark. Demographic Research, 35, 13031316.Google Scholar
Arnett, J. J. (2000). Emerging adulthood: A theory of development from the late teens through the twenties. American Psychologist, 55(5), 469480. doi:10.1037//0003-066x.55.5.469Google Scholar
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2019). Recorded Crime – Offenders, 2017–18 4591.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.Google Scholar
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2017). National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2016: Detailed findings. Drug Statistics series no. 31. Cat. no. PHE 214. Canberra: AIHW.Google Scholar
Bäckman, O., Estrada, F., Nilsson, A., & Shannon, D. (2014). The life course of young male and female offenders: Stability or change between different birth cohorts? British Journal of Criminology, 54(3), 393–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, G. S., Landes, W. M., & National Bureau of Economic Research (eds.) (1974). Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment (Vol. 3). New York: National Bureau of Economic Research: distributed by Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Berg, M. T., Baumer, E., Rosenfeld, R., & Loeber, R. (2016). Dissecting the prevalence and incidence of offending during the crime drop of the 1990s. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(3), 377396. doi:10.1007/s10940-016-9289-6Google Scholar
Bersani, B. E., Loughran, T. A., & Piquero, A. R. (2014). Comparing patterns and predictors of immigrant offending among a sample of adjudicated youth. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 43(11), 19141933. doi:10.1007/s10964-013-0045-zGoogle Scholar
Bhati, A. S., & Piquero, A. R. (2008). Estimating the impact of incarceration on subsequent offending trajectories: Deterrent, criminogenic, or null effect? Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, 98(1), 207253.Google Scholar
Biderman, A. D., & Reiss, A. J. (1967). On exploring the “dark figure” of crime. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 374(1), 115. doi:10.1177/000271626737400102Google Scholar
Bishop, D. M. (2006). Public opinion and juvenile justice policy: Myths and misconceptions public preference for rehabilitation: Reaction essay. Criminology and Public Policy, 5, 653664.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blumstein, A. (2006). The crime drop in America: An exploration of some recent crime trends. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 7(sup1), 1735. doi:10.1080/14043850601037938Google Scholar
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Miller, H. D. (1980). Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations. Journal of Criminal Justice, 8(1), 126. doi:10.1016/0047-2352(80)90056-2Google Scholar
Blumstein, A., & Wallman, J. (2000). The Crime Drop in America. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Braga, A., & Weisburd, D. (2019). Critic: Problem-oriented policing: The disconnect between principles and practice. In Weisburd, D & Braga, A (eds.), Police Innovation: Contrasting Perspectives (2nd ed., pp. 182204). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, R. (2015a). Explaining the property crime drop: The offender perspective. Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, (495), 17.Google Scholar
Brown, R. (2015b). Reviewing the effectiveness of electronic vehicle immobilisation: Evidence from four countries. Security Journal, 28(4), 329351. doi:10.1057/sj.2012.55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgess, R. L., & Akers, R. L. (1966). A differential association-reinforcement theory of criminal behavior. Social Problems, 14(2), 128147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bursik, R. J. (1988). Social disorganization and theories of crime and delinquency: Problems and prospects. Criminology, 26(4), 519552.Google Scholar
Canela-Cacho, J. A., Blumstein, A., & Cohen, J. (1997). Relationship between the offending frequency (lambda) of imprisoned and free offenders. Criminology, 35(1), 133175. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1997.tb00873.xGoogle Scholar
Caspi, A., & Moffitt, T. E. (1995). The continuity of maladaptive behavior. In Cicchetti, D & Cohen, D (eds.), Manual of Developmental Psychopathology (Vol. 2, pp. 472511). New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Cecil, K. M., Brubaker, C. J., Adler, C. M., et al. (2008). Decreased brain volume in adults with childhood lead exposure. PLOS Medicine, 5(5), e112. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050112Google Scholar
Cecil, K. M., Dietrich, K. N., Altaye, M., Egelhoff, J. C., Lindquist, D. M., Brubaker, C. J., & Lanphear, B. P. (2011). Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in adults with childhood lead exposure. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119(3), 403–408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cernkovich, S. A., & Giordano, P. C. (2001). Stability and change in antisocial behavior: the transition from adolescence to early adulthood. Criminology, 39(2), 371410.Google Scholar
Chandramouli, K., Steer, C. D., Ellis, M., & Emond, A. M. (2009). Effects of early childhood lead exposure on academic performance and behaviour of school age children. Archives of Disease in Childhood, 94(11), 844848. doi:10.1136/adc.2008.149955Google Scholar
Clancey, G., & Lulham, R. (2014). The New South Wales property crime decline. Current Issues in Criminal Justice, 25(3), 839851. doi:10.1080/10345329.2014.12036001Google Scholar
Cline, H. F. (1980). Criminal behavior over the life span. In Brim, O. G. & Kagan, J (eds.), Constancy and Change in Human Development (pp. 641674). Cambridge: Havard University Press.Google Scholar
Cloward, R. A., & Ohlin, L. E. (1960). Delinquency and Opportunity. New York: Free Press of Glencoe.Google Scholar
Cohen, L. E., & Vila, B. J. (1996). Self-control and social control: An exposition of the Gottfredson-Hirschi/Sampson Laub debate. Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention, 5(2), 125150.Google Scholar
Cohen, M. A., & Piquero, A. R. (2009). New evidence on the monetary value of saving a high risk youth. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25(1), 25–49.Google Scholar
Cook, P. J., & Laub, J. H. (2002). After the epidemic: Recent trends in youth violence in the United States. Crime and Justice, 29, 137. doi:10.1086/652218Google Scholar
Crime Statistics Agency (CSA). (2019). Recorded Criminal Incidents. Accessed 24/01/2020: www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statisticslatest-crime-data/recorded-criminal-incidents-0Google Scholar
Cullen, F. T., Jonson, C. L., & Nagin, D. S. (2011). Prisons do not reduce recidivism: The high cost of ignoring science. The Prison Journal, 91(3_suppl), 48S–65S.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Degenhardt, L., Day, C., Gilmour, S., & Hall, W. (2006). The “lessons” of the Australian “heroin shortage.Substance Abuse Treatment Prevention and Policy, 1, 11. doi:10.1186/1747-597x-1-11Google Scholar
del Frate, A. A., & Mugellini, G. (2012). The crime drop in “non-western” countries: a review of homicide data. In J. van Dijk, A. Tseloni, A. & G. Farrell (eds.), The International Crime Drop. Crime Prevention and Security Management (pp. 134–155). London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Diamond, B., Jennings, W. G., & Piquero, A. R. (2018). Scaling-up self-control: A macro-level investigation of self-control at the county level. Journal of Criminal Justice, 56, 8185. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2017.08.003Google Scholar
Dietrich, K. N., Douglas, R. M., Succop, P. A., Berger, O. G., & Bornschein, R. L. (2001). Early exposure to lead and juvenile delinquency. Neurotoxicology and Teratology, 23(6), 511518. doi:10.1016/S0892-0362(01)00184-2Google Scholar
DonohueIII, J. J. (2009). Assessing the relative benefits of incarceration: Overall changes and the benefits on the margin. In S. Raphael & M. Stoll (eds.), (2009). Do prisons make us safer?: The benefits and costs of the prison boom (pp. 269–342), Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Donohue, J. J., & Levitt, S. D. (2001). The impact of legalized abortion on crime. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 379420. doi:10.1162/00335530151144050Google Scholar
Duell, N., Steinberg, L., Icenogle, G., et al. (2018). Age patterns in risk taking across the world. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 47(5), 10521072. doi:10.1007/s10964-017-0752-yGoogle Scholar
Durlauf, S. N., & Nagin, D. S. (2010). The deterrent effect of imprisonment. In Cook, P. J. & Ludwig, J (eds.), Making Crime Control Pay: Cost Effective Alternatives to Incarceration. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Durlauf, S. N., & Nagin, D. S. (2011). Imprisonment and crime: Can both be reduced? Criminology & Public Policy, 10(1), 1354. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9133.2010.00680.xGoogle Scholar
Eck, J. E., & Madensen, T. (2009). Using signatures of opportunity structures to examine mechanisms in crime prevention evaluations. In Knutsson, J and Tilley, N (eds.), Evaluting Crime Prevention Initiatives (Vol. 24, pp. 59–84). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.Google Scholar
Eisner, M. (2014). From swords to words: Does macro-level change in self-control predict long-term variation in levels of homicide? In Tonry, M (ed.), Crime and Justice: A Review of Research (Vol. 43, pp. 65134). Chicago: University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Ezell, M. E., & Cohen, L. E. (2005). Desisting from Crime: Continuity and Change in Long-Term Crime Patterns of Serious Chronic Offenders. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fabio, A., Loeber, R., Balasubramani, G. K., et al. (2006). Why some generations are more violent than others: Assessment of age, period, and cohort effects. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(2), 151160. doi:10.1093/aje/kwj172Google Scholar
Farrell, G., & Birks, D. (2018). Did cybercrime cause the crime drop? Crime Science, 7(1), 14. doi:10.1186/s40163-018-0082-8Google Scholar
Farrell, G., & Brantingham, P. J. (2013). The crime drop and the general social survey. Canadian Public Policy/ Analyse De Politiques, 39(4), 559580. doi:10.3138/cpp.39.4.559Google Scholar
Farrell, G., & Brown, R. (2016). On the origins of the crime drop: Vehicle crime and security in the 1980s. The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice, 55(1–2), 226237. doi:10.1111/hojo.12158Google Scholar
Farrell, G., Laycock, G., & Tilley, N. (2015). Debuts and legacies: The crime drop and the role of adolescence-limited and persistent offending. Crime Science, 4(1), 110. doi:10.1186/s40163-015-0028-3Google Scholar
Farrell, G., Tilley, N., & Tseloni, A. (2014). Why the crime drop: Why crime rates fall and why they don’t. Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, 43, 421490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Tseloni, A., & Mailley, J. (2010). Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories. Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal, 12(1), 2441. doi:10.1057/cpcs.2009.20Google Scholar
Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., & Tilley, N. (2011). The effectiveness of vehicle security devices and their role in the crime drop. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 11(1), 2135. doi:10.1177/1748895810392190Google Scholar
Farrington, D. P., & Maughan, B. (1999). Criminal careers of two London cohorts. Criminal Behavior and Mental Health, 9, 91–106. doi:10.1002/cbm.293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrington, D. P. (2003). Developmental and life-course criminology: Key theoretical and empirical issues – the 2002 Sutherland Award Address. Criminology, 41(2), 221256.Google Scholar
Farrington, D. P. (2005a). The Integrated Cognitive Antisocial Potential (ICAP) theory. In Farrington, D. P. (ed.), Integrated Developmental & Life-Course Theories of Offending (Vol. 14, pp. 7392). New York: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Farrington, D. P. (2005b). Introduction to integrated developmental and life-course theories of offending. In Farrington, D. P. (ed.), Integrated Developmental & Life-Course Theories of Offending (Vol. 14, pp. 114). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Fox, J. A. (1978). Forecasting Crime Data: An Econometric Analysis. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Fox, J. A. (2006). Demograghics and U.S. homicide. In Blumstein, A and Wallmann, J (eds.), The Crime Drop in America (Revised ed.; pp. 266287). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gatti, U., Tremblay, R. E., & Vitaro, F. (2009). Iatrogenic effect of juvenile justice. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 50(8), 991998. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.2008.02057.xGoogle Scholar
Gomez-Smith, Z., & Piquero, A. R. (2005). An examination of adult onset offending. Journal of Criminal Justice, 33(6), 515525.Google Scholar
Gottfredson, M. R. (2005). Offender classifications and treatment effects in developmental criminology: A propensity/event consideration. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 602(1), 46–56.Google Scholar
Gottfredson, M., & Hirschi, T. (1986). The true value of lambda would appear to be zero: An essay on career criminals, criminal careers, selective incapacitation, cohort studies, and related topics. Criminology, 24(2), 213–234.Google Scholar
Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A General Theory of Crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Gove, W. R. (1985). The effect of age and gender on deviant behavior: A biopsychosocial perspective. In Rossi, A (ed.), Gender and the Life Course (pp. 115144). New York: Aldine De Gruyter.Google Scholar
Grogger, J. (2006). An economic model of recent trends in violence. In Blumstein, A and Wallman, J (eds.), The Crime Drop in America (revised ed., pp. 266287). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Grucza, R. A., Sher, K. J., Kerr, W. C., et al. (2018). Trends in adult alcohol use and binge drinking in the early 21st-century United States: A meta-analysis of 6 national survey series. Alcohol Clin Exp Res, 42(10), 1939–1950. doi:10.1111/acer.13859CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hanslmaier, M., Kemme, S., Stoll, K., & Baier, D. (2015). Forecasting crime in Germany in times of demographic change. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 21(4), 591610. doi:10.1007/s10610-015-9270-1Google Scholar
Hirschi, T. (1986). On the compatibility of rational choice and social control theories of crime. In Cornish, D & Clarke, R (eds.), The Reasoning Criminal: Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending (pp. 105118). Secaucus: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Hirschi, T. (1998). Social bond theory. In Cullen, F & Agnew, R (eds.), Criminological Theory: Past to Present (pp. 167174). Los Angeles: Roxbury.Google Scholar
Hirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. R. (1983). Age and the explanation of crime. American Journal of Sociology, 89(3), 552584.Google Scholar
Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M. A., & Farrell, G. (2016). The decline and locational shift of automotive theft: A local level analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 44, 4957. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2015.12.003Google Scholar
Hua, J., Baker, J., & Poynton, S. (2006). Generation Y and Crime: A longitudinal study of contact with NSW criminal courts before the age of 21 Contemporary Issues in Criminal Justice. Sydney: NSW Beureau of Crime Statistcs and Research.Google Scholar
Ignatans, D., & Matthews, R. (2017). Immigration and the crime drop. European Journal of Crime, Criminal Law and Criminal Justice, 25(3), 205229. doi:10.1163/15718174-02503002Google Scholar
Jennings, W. G., Loeber, R., Pardini, D., Piquero, A. R., & Farrington, D. P. (2016). Offending from Childhood to Young Adulthood: Recent Results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, W. G., & Reingle, J. M. (2012). On the number and shape of developmental/life-course violence, aggression, and delinquency trajectories: A state-of-the-art review. Journal of Criminal Justice, 40(6), 472489. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.07.001Google Scholar
Johnson, B., Golub, A., & Dunlap, E. (2000). The rise and decline of hard drugs, drug markets, and violence in inner-city New York. In A. Blumstein and J Wallman (eds.), The crime drop in America (pp. 164–206). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, B. L., & Nagin, D. S. (2013). A note on a Stata plugin for estimating group-based trajectory models. Sociological Methods & Research, 42(4), 608–613.Google Scholar
Kim, J., Bushway, S., Tsao, H.-S. (2015). Identifying classes of explanations for crime drop: Period and cohort effects for New York State. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(3), 357–375.Google Scholar
Kim, J., Bushway, S., & Tsao, H.-S. (2016). Identifying classes of explanations for crime drop: period and cohort effects for New York State. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(3), 357375. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-015-9274-5Google Scholar
Kovandzic, T. V., Schaffer, M. E., Vieraitis, L. M., Orrick, E. A., & Piquero, A. R. (2016). Police, crime and the problem of weak instruments: Revisiting the “More Police, Less Crime” thesis. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(1), 133158. doi:10.1007/s10940-015-9257-6Google Scholar
Kriven, S., & Ziersch, E. (2007). New car security and shifting vehicle theft patterns in Australia. Security Journal, 20(2), 111122. doi:10.1057/palgrave.sj.8350026Google Scholar
Krohn, M. D., Gibson, C. L., & Thornberry, T. P. (2013). Under the protective bud the bloom awaits: A review of theory and research on adult-onset and late-blooming offenders. In Gibson, C. L. & Krohn, M. D. (eds.), Handbook of Life-Course Criminology: Emerging Trends and Directions for Future Research (pp. 183200). New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Laub, J. H. (2004). The life course of criminology in the United States: The American Society of Criminology 2003 presidential address. Criminology, 42(1), 126. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00511.xGoogle Scholar
Levitt, S. D. (1999). The limited role of changing age strucutre in explaining aggregate crime rates. Criminology, 37(3), 581598. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1999.tb00497.xGoogle Scholar
Levitt, S. D. (2004). Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: Four factors that explain the decline and six that do not. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1), 163190. doi:10.1257/089533004773563485Google Scholar
Liedka, R. V., Piehl, A. M., & Useem, B. (2006). The crime-control effect of incarceration: Does scale matter? Criminology & Public Policy, 5(2), 245276. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9133.2006.00376.xGoogle Scholar
Livingston, M., Raninen, J., Slade, T., Swift, W., Lloyd, B., & Dietze, P. (2016). Understanding trends in Australian alcohol consumption—an age–period–cohort model. Addiction, 111(9), 1590–1598.Google Scholar
Loeber, R., & Farrington, D. P. (2014). Age-crime curve. In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice (pp. 12–18). New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Loeber, R., Jennings, W., Ahonen, L., Piquero, A. R., & Farrington, D. P. (2017). Female Delinquency from Childhood to Young Adulthood: Recent Results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Loeber, R., & Le Blanc, M. (1990). Toward a developmental criminology. In Tonry, M & Morris, N (eds.), Crime and Justice (Vol. 12, pp. 375473). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Markowitz, F. E., Bellair, P. E., Liska, A. E., & Liu, J. (2001). Extending social disorganization theory: Modeling the relationships between cohesion, disorder, and fear. Criminology, 39(2), 293319.Google Scholar
Marvell, T. B., & Moody, C. E. (1994). Prison population growth and crime reduction. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 10(2), 109140. doi:10.1007/BF02221155Google Scholar
Matsueda, R. L. (1988). The current state of differential association theory. Crime & Delinquency, 34(3), 277306.Google Scholar
Matsueda, R. L. (2001). Differential association theory. In Bryant, C. D. (ed.), Encyclopedia of Criminology and Deviant Behavior (Vol. 1, pp. 125130). New York: Taylor and Francis.Google Scholar
Matthews, B., & Minton, J. (2018). Rethinking one of criminology’s “brute facts”: The age–crime curve and the crime drop in Scotland. European Journal of Criminology, 15(3), 296320. doi:10.1177/1477370817731706CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mayhew, P. (2012). The case of Australia and New Zealand. In J. van Dijk, A. Tseloni & G. Farrell (eds.), The International Crime Drop: Crime Prevention and Security Management. London: Palgrave MacmillanGoogle Scholar
McCord, J. (1980). Patterns of deviance. In Sells, S. B., Crandall, R, Roff, M, Strauss, J. S. & Pollin, W (eds.), Human Functioning in Longitudinal Perspective (pp. 157162). Baltimore: Williams and Walkins.Google Scholar
Merton, R. K. (1938). Social structure and anomie. American Sociological Review, 3(5), 672682.Google Scholar
Mishra, S., & Lalumière, M. (2009). Is the crime drop of the 1990s in Canada and the USA associated with a general decline in risky and health-related behavior? Social Science & Medicine, 68(1), 3948. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.09.060Google Scholar
MM Starrs, Ltd. (2002). Principles for Compulsory Immobiliser Schemes. Melbourne.Google Scholar
Moffatt, S., Weatherburn, D., & Donnelly, N. (2005). What Caused the Recent Drop in Property Crime? Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.Google Scholar
Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100.4, 674701.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Moffitt, T. E. (1997). Adolescence-limited and life-course persistent offending: A complimentary pair of developmental theories. In Thornberry, T. P. (ed.), Developmental Theories of Crime and Delinquency (Vol. 7, pp. 1154). New York: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Moffitt, T. E. (2003). Life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial behavior: A 10-year research review and a research agenda. In B. B. Lahey, T. E. Moffitt, & A. Caspi (Eds.), Causes of Conduct Disorder and Juvenile Delinquency (pp. 49–75). New York: The Guilford Press.Google Scholar
Moffitt, T. E., & Caspi, A. (2001). Childhood predictors differentiate life-course persistent and adolescence-limited antisocial pathways among males and females. Development and Psychopathology, 13(2), 355375.Google Scholar
Monahan, K., Steinberg, L., & Piquero, A. R. (2015). Juvenile justice policy and practice: A developmental perspective. Crime and Justice, 44(1), 577–619.Google Scholar
Morgan, N. (2014). The Heroin Epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and Its Effect on Crime Trends – Then and Now: Technical Report. London: Home Office.Google Scholar
Nagin, D. S., Farrington, D. P., & Pogarsky, G. (1997). Adolescent mothers and the criminal behavior of their children. Law & Society Review, 31, 137162.Google Scholar
Nagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31(3), 327–362.Google Scholar
Nagin, D. S., & Paternoster, R. (2000). Population heterogeneity and state dependence: State of the evidence and directions for future research. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16(2), 117144. doi:10.1023/A:1007502804941Google Scholar
Nagin, D. S., Piquero, A. R., Scott, E. S., & Steinberg, L. (2006). Public preferences for rehabilitation versus incarceration of juvenile offenders: Evidence from a contingent valuation survey. Criminology & Public Policy, 5(4), 627–651.Google Scholar
Nagin, D. S., Solow, R. M., & Lum, C. (2015). Deterrence, criminal opportunities, and police. Criminology, 53(1), 74100. doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12057Google Scholar
National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. (2016). Modernizing Crime Statistics: Report 1: Defining and Classifying Crime. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. (2018). Proactive Policing: Effects on Crime and Communities. National Academies Press.Google Scholar
National Motor Vehicle Theft Reduction Council (NMVTRC). (2007). The effectiveness of immobilisers in preventing vehicle theft in Australia. CARS Brief Report, April 2007.Google Scholar
Needleman, H. L., Schell, A., Bellinger, D., Leviton, A., & Allred, E. N. (1990). The long-term effects of exposure to low doses of lead in childhood. New England Journal of Medicine, 322(2), 8388. doi:10.1056/NEJM199001113220203CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Norström, T., & Svensson, J. (2014). No polarization in youth drinking in Stockholm county: response to Hallgren. Addiction, 109(8), 1385–1386.Google Scholar
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR). (2019). New South Wales Recorded Crime Statistics: Quarterly Update (September 2019) Statistical Report Series. Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.Google Scholar
Olds, D., Henderson, J., Charles, R., et al. (1998). Long-term effects of nurse home visitation on children’s criminal and antisocial behavior: 15-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial. JAMA, 280(14), 12381244. doi:10.1001/jama.280.14.1238Google Scholar
Orrick, E. A., & Piquero, A. R. (2015). Were cell phones associated with lower crime in the 1990s and 2000s? Journal of Crime & Justice, 38(2), 222234. doi:10.1080/0735648x.2013.864570Google Scholar
Ouimet, M. (1999). Crime in Canada and in the United States: A comparative analysis. Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology-Revue Canadienne De Sociologie Et D Anthropologie, 36(3), 389408. doi:10.1111/j.1755-618X.1999.tb00581.xGoogle Scholar
Ouimet, M. (2002). Explaining the American and Canadian crime “drop” in the 1990’s. Canadian Journal of Criminology-Revue Canadienne De Criminologie, 44(1), 3350.Google Scholar
Ousey, G. C., & Kubrin, C. E. (2009). Exploring the Connection between immigration and violent crime rates in U.S. Cities, 1980–2000. Social Problems, 56(3), 447473. doi:10.1525/sp.2009.56.3.447CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paternoster, R., Dean, C. W., Piquero, A., Mazerolle, P., & Brame, R. (1997). Generality, continuity, and change in offending. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 13(3), 231266. doi:10.1007/bf02221092Google Scholar
Payne, J. L., & Piquero, A. R. (2016). The concordance of self-reported and officially recorded lifetime offending histories: Results from a sample of Australian prisoners. Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 184195. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.05.004Google Scholar
Payne, J., Brown, R., & Broadhurst, R. (2016). Dataset: Trajectories of two NSW Birth Cohorts. Data supplied by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Research funded by the Criminology Research Council.Google Scholar
Payne J., Brown R., & Broadhurst R., (2018). Where have all the young offenders gone? Examining changes in offending between two NSW birth cohorts. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 553. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.Google Scholar
Payne J., Kwiatkowski M. & Wundersitz J. (2008). Police Drug Diversion: A Study of Criminal Offending Outcomes. Research and Public Policy Series No. 97. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. https://aic.gov.au/publications/rpp/rpp97Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R. (2008). Disproportionate minority contact. Future of Children, 18(2), 5979. doi:10.1353/foc.0.0013Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., & Blumstein, A. (2007). Does incapacitation reduce crime? Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 23(4), 267285. doi:10.1007/s10940-007-9030-6Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Brame, R., & Moffitt, T. E. (2005). Extending the study of continuity and change: Gender differences in the linkage between adolescent and adult offending. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 21(2), 219243. doi:10.1007/s10940-005-2494-3Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Farrington, D. P., & Blumstein, A. (2003). The criminal career paradigm: background and recent developments. Crime and justice, 30, 359–506.Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Jennings, W. G., & Farrington, D. P. (2010). On the malleability of self‐control: Theoretical and policy implications regarding a general theory of crime. Justice Quarterly, 27(6), 803834. doi:10.1080/07418820903379628Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Piquero, N. L., & Narvey, C. (2019). Developmental and life course perspectives on female offending. In Shelley, L. B. & Gelsthorpe, L (eds.), The Wiley Handbook on What Works with Female Offenders: A Critical Review of Theory, Practice, and Policy: Hoboken, New Jersey.Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Farrington, D. P., Welsh, B. C., Tremblay, R., & Jennings, W. G. (2009). Effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 5, 83–120.Google Scholar
Piquero, A. R., Jennings, W. G., Diamond, B., Farrington, D. P., Tremblay, R. E., Welsh, B. C., & Gonzalez, J. M. R. (2016). A meta-analysis update on the effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 12(2), 229–248.Google Scholar
Piquero, N. L., & Piquero, A. R. (2015). Life-course-persistent offending. In Cullen, F. T., Wilcox, P, Lux, J. L., & Jonson, C. L. (eds.), Sisters in Crime Revisited: Bringing Gender into Criminology. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Potter, R., & Thomas, P. (2001). Engine immobilisers: how effective are they? National Motor Vehicle Theft Reduction Council. Last accessed May 2020. https://carsafe.com.au/docs/immobiliser_paper.pdf.Google Scholar
Quetelet, A. (2003 [1831]). Research on the propensity for crime at different ages. Translated by Sylveski, S. F. In P. Bean (ed.), Crime: Critical Concepts in Sociology (pp. 119–135). London: Taylor & Francis.Google Scholar
Radaev, V., & Roshchina, Y. (2019). Young cohorts of Russians drink less: age–period–cohort modelling of alcohol use prevalence 1994–2016. Addiction, 114(5), 823–835.Google Scholar
Raninen, J., Livingston, M., & Leifman, H. (2014). Declining trends in alcohol consumption among Swedish youth—does the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures apply?. Alcohol and Alcoholism, 49(6), 681–686.Google Scholar
Raphael, S., & Winter‐Ebmer, R. (2001). Identifying the effect of unemployment on crime. The Journal of Law & Economics, 44(1), 259283. doi:10.1086/320275Google Scholar
Reyes, J. W. (2007). Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 7(1), 51. doi:10.2202/1935-1682.1796Google Scholar
Robins, L. N. (1978). Sturdy childhood predictors of adult antisocial behavior: Replications from longitudinal studies. Psychological medicine, 8(4), 611622.Google Scholar
Robins, L. N., & Rutter, M. (1990). Straight and Devious Pathways from Childhood to Adulthood. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Roeder, O. K., Eisen, L.-B., Bowling, J., Stiglitz, J. E., & Chettiar, I. M. (2015). What caused crime to decline? Columbia Business School Research Paper (Vol. 15–28). Columbia: Columbia University.Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, R., & Messner, S. F. (1995). Crime and the American dream: An institutional analysis. In Adler, F & Laufer, W (eds.), The Legacy of Anomie Theory (pp. 159182). New Jersey: Transation.Google Scholar
Rutter, M., Quinton, D., & Hill, J. (1990). Adult outcome of institution-reared children: Males and females compared. In Robins, L. N. & Rutter, M (eds.), Straight and Devious Pathways from Childhood to Adulthood (pp. 135157). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sampson, J. R. (2000). Whither the sociological study of crime? Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 711714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sampson, J. R., & Groves, W. B. (1989). Community structure and crime: Testing social-disorganization theory. American Journal of Sociology, 94(4), 774802.Google Scholar
Sampson, J. R., & Laub, J. H. (1997). A life-course theory of cumulative disadvantage and stability in delinquency. In Thornberry, T. P. (ed.), Developmental Theories of Crime and Delinquency (Vol. 7, pp. 133162). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Sampson, J. R., & Laub, J. H. (2003a). Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41(3), 555592.Google Scholar
Sampson, J. R., & Laub, J. H. (2003b). Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Delinquent Boys to Age 70. Canbridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Sampson, R. J., & Lydia, B. (2006). “Cultural Mechanisms and Killing Fields: A Revised Theory of Community-Level Racial Inequality.” The Many Colors of Crime: Inequalities of Race, Ethnicity and Crime in America, edited by Ruth Peterson, Lauren Krivo, and John Hagan. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Turning points in the life course: Why change matters to the study of crime. Criminology, 31(3), 301325. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1993.tb01132.xGoogle Scholar
Sanders, T., Liu, Y., Buchner, V., & Tchounwou, P. B. (2009). Neurotoxic effects and biomarkers of lead exposure: a review. Reviews on Environmental Health, 24(1), 15–46.Google Scholar
Sherman, L. W. (1995). Police. In Wilson, J. Q. & Petersilia, J (eds.), Crime. San Francisco: ICS Press.Google Scholar
Sherman, L. W., Gartin, P. R., & Buerger, M. E. (1989). Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1), 2756. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1989.tb00862.xGoogle Scholar
Shoesmith, G. L. (2017). Crime, teenage abortion, and unwantedness. Crime & Delinquency, 63(11), 14581490. doi:10.1177/0011128715615882Google Scholar
Sidebottom, A., Kuo, T., Mori, T., Li, J., & Farrell, G. (2018). The East Asian crime drop?. Crime Science, 7(1), 1–6.Google Scholar
Soothill, K., Ackerley, E., & Francis, B. (2008). Criminal convictions among children and young adults: Changes over time. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 8(3), 297315. doi:10.1177/1748895808092431Google Scholar
Spelman, W. (1994). Criminal Incapacitation. New York: Plenum Press.Google Scholar
Spelman, W. (2000). What recent studies do (and don’t) tell us about imprisonment and crime. Crime and Justice, 27, 419494. doi:10.1086/652204Google Scholar
Stowell, J. I., Messner, S. F., McGeever, K. F., & Raffalovich, L. E. (2009). Immigration and the recent violent crime drop in the United States: A pooled, cross-sectional time-series analysis of metropolitan areas. Criminology, 47(3), 889928. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00162.xGoogle Scholar
Telep, C. W., & Weisburd, D. (2012). What is known about the effectiveness of police practices in reducing crime and disorder? Police Quarterly, 15(4), 331357. doi:10.1177/1098611112447611Google Scholar
Törrönen, J., Roumeliotis, F., Samuelsson, E., Kraus, L., & Room, R. (2019). Why are young people drinking less than earlier? Identifying and specifying social mechanisms with a pragmatist approach. International Journal of Drug Policy, 64, 13–20.Google Scholar
Tracy, P., & Kempf-Leonard, K. (1996). Continuity and Discontinuity in Criminal Careers. New York: Plenum Press.Google Scholar
Tracy, P., Wolfgang, M. E., & Figlio, R. M. (1990). Delinquency Careers in Two Birth Cohorts: Plenum Press, New York.Google Scholar
Trussler, T. (2012). Demographics and homicide in Canada: A fixed-effects analysis of the role of young males on changing homicide rates. Western Criminology Review, 13(1), 5367.Google Scholar
Tseloni, A., Thompson, R., Grove, L., Tilley, N., & Farrell, G. (2017). The effectiveness of burglary security devices. Security Journal, 30(2), 646664. doi:10.1057/sj.2014.30Google Scholar
van Dijk, J., Mayhew, P., & Killias, M. (1990). Experiences of Crime across the World: Key Findings from the 1989 International Crime Survey. Deventer: Kluwer Law and Taxation.Google Scholar
van Dijk, J., & Tseloni, A. (2012). Global overview: International trends in victimization and recorded crime. In van Dijk, J, Tseloni, A & Farrell, G (eds.), The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research (pp. 1136). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.Google Scholar
van Dijk, J., & Vollaard, B. (2012). Self-limiting crime waves. In J. van Dijk, A. Tseloni & G. Farrell (eds.), The International Crime Drop: New Directions in Research (pp. 250–267). London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
van Vugt, E., Loeber, R., & Pardini, D. (2016). Why is young maternal age at first childbirth a risk factor for persistent delinquency in their male offspring? Examining the role of family and parenting factors. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 26(5), 322335. doi:10.1002/cbm.1959Google Scholar
Vlasak, T., Jordakieva, G., Gnambs, T., Augner, C., Crevenna, R., Winker, R., & Barth, A. (2019). Blood lead levels and cognitive functioning: A meta-analysis. Science of The Total Environment, 668, 678684. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.052Google Scholar
von Hofer, H. (2014). Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: From historical descriptions to forecasting the future. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 15(2), 167181. doi:10.1080/14043858.2014.918298Google Scholar
Wadsworth, T. (2010). Is immigration responsible for the crime drop? An assessment of the influence of immigration on changes in violent crime between 1990 and 2000. Social Science Quarterly, 91(2), 531553. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00706.xGoogle Scholar
Wan, W.-Y., Moffatt, S., Jones, C., & Weatherburn, D. (2012). The effect of arrest and imprisonment on crime. Crime And Justice Bulletin, No.158. Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.Google Scholar
Weatherburn, D. (2014). Arresting Incarceration: Pathways out of Indigenous Imprisonment. Canberra: Aboriginal Studies Press.Google Scholar
Weatherburn, D., Freeman, K., & Holmes, J. (2014). Young but not so restless: Trends in the age-specific rate of offending. Crime and Justice Statistics. (Issue Paper No. 98) Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.Google Scholar
Weatherburn, D., Halstead, I., & Ramsey, S. (2016). The great (Australian) property crime decline. Australian Journal of Social Issues, 51(3), 257278. doi:10.1002/j.1839-4655.2016.tb01231.xGoogle Scholar
Weatherburn, D., & Holmes, J. (2013). The Decline in Robbery and Theft: Inter-state Comparisons. Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.Google Scholar
Weatherburn, D., Jones, C., Freeman, K., & Makkai, T. (2003). Supply control and harm reduction: Lessons from the Australian heroin “drought.Addiction, 98(1), 8391. doi:10.1046/j.1360-0443.2003.00248.xGoogle Scholar
Weisburd, D. (2018). Hot spots of crime and place-based prevention. Criminology & Public Policy, 17(1), 525. doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12350Google Scholar
Weisburd, D., Bushway, S., Lum, C., & Yang, S.-M. (2004). Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the City of Seattle. Criminology, 42(2), 283322.Google Scholar
Weisburd, D., Mastrofski, S. D., Willis, J. J., & Greenspan, R. (2019). Changing everything so that everything can remain the same: Compstat and American policing. In Weisburd, D & Braga, A (eds.), Police Innovation: Contrasting Perspectives (2nd ed., pp. 417438). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Winter, A. S., & Sampson, R. J. (2017). From lead exposure in early childhood to adolescent health: A Chicago birth cohort. American Journal of Public Health, 107(9), 14961501. doi:10.2105/ajph.2017.303903Google Scholar
Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. M., & Sellin, T. (1972). Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Wright, J. P., Dietrich, K. N., Ris, M. D., et al. (2008). Association of prenatal and childhood blood lead concentrations with criminal arrests in early adulthood. PLOS Medicine, 5(5), e101. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050101Google Scholar
Zara, G., & Farrington, D. P. (2009). Childhood and adolescent predictors of late onset criminal careers. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 38(3), 287300.Google Scholar
Zimring, F. E. (2007). The Great American Crime Decline. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Zimring, F. E. (2012). The City That Became Safe: New York’s Lessons for Urban Crime and Its Control. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Developmental Criminology and the Crime Decline
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Developmental Criminology and the Crime Decline
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Developmental Criminology and the Crime Decline
Available formats
×