PRICES AND SECURITY-RELATED CONDITIONS

This section examines the relationship between the prices of arms and ammunition and local security-related conditions, in particular situations of instability and insecurity. The objective is to better grasp the extent to which illicit arms and ammunition prices are connected to local events. Local security conditions are considered using several data sources. First, the data collectors who monitored prices also submitted narrative reports that relate which factors arms dealers and other informed individuals identified as drivers of market shifts. Second, the section compares price data with available quantitative information on local conflict intensity.

Notes from the field

Narrative reports from data collectors propose a series of factors that local dealers and other informants cited when explaining price variations. Table 11.6 provides a summary of these observations, organizing them according to the supply and demand framework used in Killicoat (2007, p. 264). While it is beyond the scope of the chapter—and beyond the possibilities of the collected data—to measure and test each of these factors against price trends, these notes from the surveyed locations are useful in further refining our understanding of local supply and demand for arms and ammunition and in identifying paths for future quantitative research.