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  • Print publication year: 2003
  • Online publication date: June 2012

6 - Uncertain Risk: The Role and Limits of Quantitative Assessment

Summary

INTRODUCTION

The assessment and management of uncertain risks is an essential component of science, engineering, medicine, business, law, and other modern disciplines. I. Good argues that risk science based on the evaluation of probabilistic events has been useful in saving and improving lives throughout history, “since the assessment of uncertainty incorporates the idea of learning from experience which most creatures do” (Good, 1959). Learning from experience is only part of the challenge, since many decisions involve new or evolving risk scenarios in which humans have little or no experience. Risk management capabilities must include the ability to respond to risks that are known and well understood, and the ability to detect and anticipate those that are newly emerging (e.g., U.S. EPA SAB, 1995; NRC, 1999; U.S. EPA ORD, 2000). Uncertainty analysis provides a framework for characterizing the position of a problem along this continuum and the implications for appropriate response and management.

Uncertainty about risk arises as a result of a fundamental lack of understanding about how the world works, randomness in the outcome of natural and human processes, and an inability to measure, characterize, or even at times define key quantities of interest that affect, or are affected by, risk. Risks can vary across time, space, and from individual to individual in a population. Characterization of these variations is an essential part of a risk analysis; however, the basic knowledge or data to fully and effectively characterize risk, and its variability, are often lacking.

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For further reading
Bedford, T., and Cooke, R. 2001. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Covello, V. T., and Merkhofer, M. W. 1993. Risk Assessment Methods: Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks. Plenum Press, New York
Crawford-Brown, D. J. 1999. Risk-Based Environmental Decisions: Methods and Culture. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Cullen, A. C., and Frey, H. C. 1999. Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing With Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs. Plenum Press, New York
Jaeger, C. C., Renn, O., Rosa, E. A., and Webler, T. 2001. Rational Action, Risk, and Uncertainty. Earthscan, London
Kadane, J. B., and Wolfson, L. J. 1998. Experiences in elicitation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society D, 47: 3–19 (with discussion)
Kammen, D. M., and Hassenzahl, D. M. 1999. Should We Risk It? Exploring Environmental, Health, and Technological Problem Solving, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
Klapp, M. G. 1992. Bargaining With Uncertainty: Decision-Making in Public Health, Technologial Safety, and Environmental Quality. Auburn House, Dover, MA
Morgan, M. G., and Henrion, M. 1990. Uncertainty: A Guide for Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Porter, T. M. 1995. Trust in Numbers: The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
Slovic, P. 2000. The Perception of Risk. Earthscan, London
Stirling, A. 1999. On Science and Precaution in the Management of Technological Risk: Volume I. A Synthesis Report of Case Studies. Report EUR 19056/EN. European Commission for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain
Stirling, A. 2002. On Science and Precaution in the Management of Technological Risk: Volume II. Case Studies. Report EUR 19056/EN/2. European Commission for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain
Warren-Hicks, W. H., and Moore, D. R. J., eds. 1998. Uncertainty Analysis in Ecological Risk Assessment. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), Pensacola, FL