Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Foreword by Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO
- Foreword by Thomas E. Lovejoy
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Issues regarding oceans and opportunities: an introduction to the book
- 2 Main human uses of ocean areas and resources, impacts, and multiple scales of governance
- 3 Physical and chemical changes in the ocean over basin-wide zones and decadal or longer time-scales: perspectives on current and future conditions
- 4 Knowledge and implications of global change in the oceans for biology, ecology, and ecosystem services
- 5 A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales
- 6 Ecosystem approach and ocean management
- 7 Challenges in using valuation in ecosystem-based management in a marine context: the case of UK Marine Protected Area designation
- 8 The contribution of international scientific cooperation and related institutions to effective governance for the oceans: the cases of regional tsunami early warning systems and the Argo project
- 9 Emerging and unresolved issues: the example of marine genetic resources of areas beyond national jurisdiction
- 10 The assumption that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is the legal framework for all activities taking place in the sea
- 11 The legal regime of outer space in light of the Law of the Sea
- 12 Towards sustainable oceans in the 21st century
- Index
- References
3 - Physical and chemical changes in the ocean over basin-wide zones and decadal or longer time-scales: perspectives on current and future conditions
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 May 2015
Edited by
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Foreword by Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO
- Foreword by Thomas E. Lovejoy
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Issues regarding oceans and opportunities: an introduction to the book
- 2 Main human uses of ocean areas and resources, impacts, and multiple scales of governance
- 3 Physical and chemical changes in the ocean over basin-wide zones and decadal or longer time-scales: perspectives on current and future conditions
- 4 Knowledge and implications of global change in the oceans for biology, ecology, and ecosystem services
- 5 A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales
- 6 Ecosystem approach and ocean management
- 7 Challenges in using valuation in ecosystem-based management in a marine context: the case of UK Marine Protected Area designation
- 8 The contribution of international scientific cooperation and related institutions to effective governance for the oceans: the cases of regional tsunami early warning systems and the Argo project
- 9 Emerging and unresolved issues: the example of marine genetic resources of areas beyond national jurisdiction
- 10 The assumption that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is the legal framework for all activities taking place in the sea
- 11 The legal regime of outer space in light of the Law of the Sea
- 12 Towards sustainable oceans in the 21st century
- Index
- References
Summary
3.1 Introduction
Comprehensive international research programmes and reviews have firmly established that human activities are substantially impacting the total environment, including the ocean, and are triggering global and regional changes in the physical, chemical, and biological conditions which affect ecosystems and human societies. These programmes include the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the Large Marine Ecosystem Programme (LME), activities of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and World Heritage Convention of UNESCO, as well as integrated assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (Kullenberg, 2010; Clarke, 2010).
As a consequence of the growing needs of the increasing human population, diverse pressures on the marine environment have increased markedly over past decades. These include offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation (e.g. into deeper and more hazardous areas of the Arctic Basin), expansion of fisheries into new areas (e.g. the Southern Ocean krill fisheries), transportation and shipping (e.g. across previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Basin), offshore extraction of renewable energy, aquaculture production, enhanced use of the coastal zone for urbanization, land reclamation, infrastructure installations, ports and transportation, and recreation and tourism. Taken together these factors constitute a global change parallel to the population growth since the 1950s, with large consequences for our physical environment. However, what of all these factors constitutes significant change? Carmack and McLaughlin (2011) conclude that ‘changes in the physical environment are considered significant when they affect the biosphere, including humans’. This definition agrees in principle with the IGBP and LME approach. Observations and model simulations show that impacts of climate change on the ocean include the redistribution of oceanic water mass boundaries and habitats, and identify the need for time-series observations over a wide range of ocean zones that will permit science-informed policy decisions.
In the present chapter we briefly summarize documented changes and variations in the physical, chemical, and biological nature of the marine environment over basin-wide zones and decadal or longer time-scales, omitting any in-depth analysis of possible consequences for biology and the ecosystem.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Ocean Sustainability in the 21st Century , pp. 54 - 83Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2015
References
(2007). Picoplankton do some heavy lifting. Science 315: 777–778. doi: 10.1126/science.1137438.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , and (2009). Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology 15: 1790–1803.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2007). Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , , , , , , , and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 385–428.Google Scholar
(2007). The alpha/beta ocean distinction: A perspective on freshwater fluxes, convection, nutrients and productivity in high-latitude seas. Deep Sea Research Part II: Tropical Studies Oceanography 54(23–26): 2574–2598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2011). Towards recognition of physical and geochemical change in sub-Arctic and Arctic Seas. Progress in Oceanography 90(1–4): 90–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2010). Structures and property distributions in the three oceans surrounding Canada in 2007: A basis for a long-term ocean climate monitoring strategy. Atmosphere–Ocean 48(4): 211–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2009). Controls on diatom biogeography in the ocean. Science 325(5947): 1539–1541. doi: 10.1126/science.1174159.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , and (2003). From anchovies to sardines and back: Multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299: 217–221.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , and (eds.) (2008). Securing the Oceans: Essays on Ocean Governance – Global and Regional Perspectives. Quezon City: GEF-UNDP-IMO Regional Programme on Building Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA) and the Nippon Foundation, 770 pp.Google Scholar
(2006). Global sea levels: Past, present and future. In: IOC Annual Report No. 13, 8–16. Paris: UNESCO.Google Scholar
and (2011). Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in Geophysics 32: 585–602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2011). Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L18601. doi: 10.1029/2011GL048794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2010). The development of ocean climate programmes. In: Troubled Waters: Ocean Science and Governance. and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 96–111.Google Scholar
and (2001). Ocean gyre circulation changes associated with the North Atlantic oscillation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 31: 3374–3400.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2003). A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 426: 826–829.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , et al. (2008). Exponential decline of deep-sea ecosystem functioning linked to benthic biodiversity loss. Current Biology 18: 1–8.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , et al. (2011). Potential impacts of future ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries: Current knowledge and recommendations for future research. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68: 1019–1029.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2008). North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L08607. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032838.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2008). Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems. Science 321: 926–929.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
and (2010). Fifty year trends in global ocean salinities and their relationship to broad scale warming. J. Clim. 23: 4342–4362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2004). Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans. Science 305: 362–366.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , and (eds.) (2002). Oceans 2020: Science, Trends and the Challenge of Sustainability. Washington DC: Island Press, 296 pp.Google Scholar
(2010). Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. Journal of Marine Systems 81: 171–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2001). Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100. Climate Dynamics 18: 225–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , and (1989). A 140,000-year continental climate reconstruction from two European pollen records. Nature 338: 309–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (1998). Iceland, Faroe and Norwegian Coasts. In: The Global Coastal Ocean. Regional Studies and Syntheses. and (eds.). The Sea: Ideas and Observations on Progress in the Study of the Seas, 11. New York: John Wiley & Sons, pp. 733–758.Google Scholar
and (2006). Robust response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19: 5686–5699.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1996). Risk analysis in fisheries and natural resource management. Human Ecology and Risk Assessment 2: 655–659.Google Scholar
and (2002). New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 59(6): 1041–1061.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2007). Palaeoclimate. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , , , , , , , and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 433–497.Google Scholar
and (2011). Ocean density change contributions to sea level rise. Oceanography 24: 112–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2012). Impact of climate change on the Baltic Sea ecosystem over the past 1000 years. Nature Climate Change 2(12): 871–874.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2009). Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage. Nature 462: 863–868.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(1983). The Baltic Sea. In: Ecosystems of the World 26: Estuaries and Enclosed Seas. (ed.). Amsterdam–Oxford–New York: Elsevier, pp. 309–335.Google Scholar
(2010). Ocean science, an overview. In: Troubled Waters: Ocean Science and Governance. and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
and (2001). Changes in the North Atlantic. In: Climate of the 21st Century: Changes and Risks. , , and (eds.). Hamburg: Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen, pp. 196–198.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2008). Response to comments on ‘Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change’. Science 319: 570. doi: 10.1126/science.1147315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2012). The global carbon budget 1959–2011. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 5: 1107–1157. doi: 10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012, 2012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2007). Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , , , , , , , and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 337–383.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2012). World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L10603. doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2009). Smallest algae thrive as the Arctic Ocean freshens. Science 326: 539.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , et al. (2005). Marine systems. In: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, ACIA. , , and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 453–538.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (1997). A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069–1079.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2007). Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , , , , , , , and (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 747–845.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2011). Weaving marine food webs from end to end under global change. Journal of Marine Systems 84: 106–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2011). Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4 degrees C world’ in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369: 161–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2002). Climate change and the ocean. In: Oceans 2020: Science, Trends and the Challenge of Sustainability. , , and (eds.). Washington DC: Island Press, pp. 85–108.Google Scholar
(2007). Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 55(7–9): 342–352. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2006.11.014.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
and (2012). End-Permian mass extinction in the oceans: An ancient analog for the twenty-first century? In: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Vol. 40. Jeanloz, R. (ed.). pp. 89–111. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105329.CrossRef
, , , et al. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2008). Ecology: Physiology and climate change. Science 322(5902): 690–692. doi: 10.1126/science.1163156.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , et al. (2009). Beaufort Gyre freshwater reservoir: State and variability from observations. J. Geophys. Res. 114. doi: 10.1029/2008jc005104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2012). Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environmental Research Letters 7. doi: 10.1088/1748–9326/7/4/044035.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2006). Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. Journal of Climate 19: 446–469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (eds.) (1998). The Global Coastal Ocean. Regional Studies and Syntheses. The sea: Ideas and observations on progress in the study of the seas, 11. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1062 pp.Google Scholar
and (2009). The 2004–2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program. Progr. Oceanogr. 82: 81–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2011). International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and Impacts. Summary Report. Oxford: IPSO, 18 pp.Google Scholar
and (1998). Polar ocean boundaries. In: The Global Coastal Ocean. Regional Studies and Syntheses. and (eds.). The sea: Ideas and observations on progress in the study of the seas, 11. New York: John Wiley & Sons, pp. 69–78.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2004). The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2. Science 305: 367–371.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , , et al. (2004). Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18, GB 3003: 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and 2010. The global oceanic freshwater cycle: A state-of-the-art quantification. J. Marine Res. 68: 569–595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2012). A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance. Science 338: 1183–1189.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
, , and (eds.) (2009). Sustaining the World';s Large Marine Ecosystems. Gland: IUCN, 140 pp.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2009). Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Biogeosciences 6: 515–533.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , , et al. (2011). On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Progress in Oceanography 88: 1–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1958). The Gulf Stream: A Physical and Dynamical Description. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press and London: Cambridge University Press, 202 pp.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2008). Expanding oxygen-minimum zones in the tropical oceans. Science 320: 655–658.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(2009). Changing states of the Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem: Anthropogenic forcing and climate impacts. In: Sustaining the World's Large Marine Ecosystems. , , and (eds.). Gland: IUCN, pp. 77–88.Google Scholar
US National Snow and Ice Data Center (2012). Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, Monthly Archives, September 2012,http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/09/.
US Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program, the European Project on Ocean Acidification (EPOCA) and the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (UKOA) 2010 (and further update). Frequently Asked Questions About Ocean Acidification, www.whoi.edu/website/OCB-OA/FAQs.
and (2009). Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106: 21527–21532.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(2003). The Changing Ocean: Its Effects on Climate and Living Resources. IOC Ocean Forum Series 4. Paris: UNESCO Publishing, 170 pp.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2011). Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Global Change Biol. 17(2): 1235–1249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2001). Causes of climate change in the Quaternary. In: Climate of the 21st Century: Changes and Risks. , , and (eds.). Hamburg: Wissenschaftliche Auswertungen, pp. 61–64.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2004). Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophysical Monograph Series 147: 189–211.Google Scholar
, , , et al. (2009). Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: Effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt. Science 326: 1098–1100.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
(2011). A global relationship between the ocean water cycle and near-surface salinity. Journal of Geophysical Research 116, C10025. doi: 10.1029/2010JC006937.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1989). Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 19: 475–486.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2012). History of seawater carbonate chemistry, atmospheric CO2, and ocean acidification. In: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Vol. 40. Jeanloz, R. (ed.). 141–165.