Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-55597f9d44-2qt69 Total loading time: 0.605 Render date: 2022-08-11T12:12:57.478Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "useNewApi": true } hasContentIssue true

Book contents

6 - Tephra fall hazard for the Neapolitan area

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2015

W. Marzocchi
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
J. Selva
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
A. Costa
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
L. Sandri
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
R. Tonini
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
G. Macedonio
Affiliation:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
Susan C. Loughlin
Affiliation:
British Geological Survey, Edinburgh
Steve Sparks
Affiliation:
University of Bristol
Sarah K. Brown
Affiliation:
University of Bristol
Susanna F. Jenkins
Affiliation:
University of Bristol
Charlotte Vye-Brown
Affiliation:
British Geological Survey, Edinburgh
HTML view is not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Summary

The Neapolitan area is one of the highest volcanic risk areas in the world, both for the presence of three potentially explosive and active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia), and for the extremely high exposure (over a million people located in a very large and important metropolitan area). Even though pyroclastic flows and lahars represent the most destructive phenomena near the volcanoes, tephra fall poses a serious threat on a wider spatial scale. Excess of tephra loading can cause building collapse, disrupt services and lifelines, and severely affect agriculture and human health. On a larger spatial scale, tephra fallout may cause a major disruption of the economy in Europe and in the Mediterranean area (Folch & Sulpizio, 2010, Sulpizio et al., 2012).

The volcanic hazard is the way in which scientists quantify such a kind of threat. The hazard is usually expressed in probabilistic terms in order to account for the vast irreducible (aleatory) and reducible (epistemic) uncertainties. In the past several papers focussed on the assessment of tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes (e.g. Barberi et al. (1990), Macedonio et al. (1990), Cioni et al. (2003), Costa et al. (2009)). These studies have combined field data of tephra deposits and numerical simulations of tephra dispersal (often considering tens of thousands of wind profiles to account for wind variability) to produce maps for the expected tephra loading in case of a specific scenario (e.g. considering one specific kind of eruption), or of a few reference scenarios at both Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei.

This kind of map is still frequently used in volcanology, however, they do not represent the real volcanic hazard, because they do not consider the probability of occurrence of the specific scenarios considered, and they neglect a large part of the natural variability, such as the possibility to have eruptions of different size and from different vents. The latter is particularly important for the Campi Flegrei caldera, where the largest source of uncertainty comes from the forecast of the next eruption location. From a more technical point of view, these studies do not properly incorporate all known aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This aspect is of primary importance in order to get a reliable volcanic hazard assessment.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2015
You have Access Open access
2
Cited by

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×