Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T09:50:19.620Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

12 - Statistical Methods for Integration and Monte Carlo

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2011

John F. Monahan
Affiliation:
North Carolina State University
Get access

Summary

Introduction

One of the advantages of Monte Carlo methods, as highlighted in Chapter 10, is that the whole array of statistical tools are available to analyze the results and assess the accuracy of any estimate. Sadly, the statistical analysis of many Monte Carlo experiments has been absent, with others poorly done. Quite simply, statisticians do not always practice what they preach. One rationalization with some validity is that the statistical tools for analyzing these data are beyond the mainstream of statistical methodology; one of the goals of this chapter is to remove this as a possible excuse. Some of the fundamental statistical tools are reviewed in Section 12.2. Density estimation, long an object of theoretical discourse, becomes an important tool in expressing the results of Monte Carlo studies; a brief discussion of the highlights of density estimation is included in this section. The most common statistical tests for these data involve testing whether a sample arises from a specified distribution; a brief discussion of goodness-of-fit tests forms Section 12.3. Importance sampling, discussed briefly in Chapter 10, presents a class of statistical problems with weighted observations. This requires some minor modifications of common statistical tools that are outlined in Section 12.4. An attendant problem with importance sampling is concern for the distribution of the weights; tests on the behavior of the distribution of weights are discussed in Section 12.5.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Milton and Stegun, Irene A. (Eds.) (1970), Handbook of Mathematical Functions. New York: Dover.Google Scholar
Boos, Dennis D. (1984), “Using Extreme Value Theory to Estimate Large Percentiles,” Technometrics 26: 33–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cencov, N. N. (1962), “Evaluation of an Unknown Distribution Density from Observations,” Soviet Mathematics 3: 1559–62.Google Scholar
Cochran, William G. (1954), “Some Methods for Strengthening the Common χ2 Tests,” Biometrics 10: 417–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cranley, R. and Patterson, T. N. L. (1976), “Randomization of Number Theoretic Methods for Multiple Integration,” SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis 13: 904–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fieller, E. C. (1954), “Some Problems in Interval Estimation,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 16: 175–85.Google Scholar
Genz, Alan and Monahan, John (1998), “Stochastic Integration Rules for Infinite Regions,” SIAM Journal of Scientific Computation 19: 426–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geweke, John (1989), “Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration,” Econometrica 57: 1317–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haeusler, E. and Teugels, J. L. (1985), “On Asymptotic Normality of Hill's Estimator for the Exponent of Regular Variation,” Annals of Statistics 13: 743–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, P. (1982), “On Some Simple Estimates of an Exponent of Regular Variation,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 44: 37–42.Google Scholar
Heiberger, Richard M. (1978), “Algorithm AS127: Generation of Random Orthogonal Matrices,” Applied Statistics 27: 199–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hesterberg, Tim (1995), “Weighted Average Importance Sampling and Defensive Mixture Distributions,” Technometrics 37: 185–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, B. W. (1975), “A Simple General Approach to Inference about the Tail of a Distribution,” Annals of Statistics 3: 1163–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mann, H. B. and Wald, A. (1942), “On the Choice of the Number of Class Intervals in the Application of the Chi-Square Test,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 13: 306–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monahan, J. F. (1993), “Testing the Behavior of Importance Sampling Weights,” Computing Science and Statistics 24: 112–17.Google Scholar
Monahan, John and Genz, Alan (1997), “Spherical-Radial Integration Rules for Bayesian Computation,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 92: 664–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, David S. (1986), “Tests of Chi-Squared Type,” in D'Agostino, R. B. and Stephens, M. A. (Eds.), Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, pp. 63–95. New York: Marcel Dekker.Google Scholar
Roscoe, J. T. and Byars, J. A. (1971), “An Investigation of the Restraints with Respect to Sample Size Commonly Imposed on the Use of Chi–Square Statistic,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66: 755–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siegel, A. F. and O'Brien, F. (1985), “Unbiased Monte Carlo Integration Methods with Exactness for Low Order Polynomials,” SIAM Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing 6: 169–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silverman, B. W. (1986), Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. London: Chapman & Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smirnov, N. V. (1939), “On the Estimation of the Discrepancy between Empirical Curves of Distribution for Two Independent Samples” (in Russian), Bulletin of Moscow University 2: 3–16.Google Scholar
Stephens, Michael A. (1970), “Use of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramer–von Mises and Related Statistics without Extensive Tables,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 32: 115–22.Google Scholar
Stephens, Michael A. (1986), “Tests Based on EDF Statistics,” in D'Agostino, R. B. and Stephens, M. A. (Eds.), Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, pp. 97–193. New York: Marcel Dekker.Google Scholar
Stewart, G. W. (1980), “The Efficient Generation of Random Orthogonal Matrices with an Application to Condition Estimation,” SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis 17: 403–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tanner, Martin A. and Thisted, Ronald A. (1982), “Remark ASR42. A Remark on AS127. Generation of Random Orthogonal Matrices,” Applied Statistics 31: 190–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tapia, Richard A. and Thompson, James R. (1978), Nonparametric Probability Density Estimation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Tierney, Luke and Kadane, Joseph B. (1986), “Accurate Approximations for Posterior Moments and Marginal Densities,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: 82–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tierney, Luke, Kass, Robert E., and Kadane, Joseph B. (1989), “Fully Exponential Laplace Approximations to Expectations and Variances of Nonpositive Functions,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 84: 710–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wahba, Grace (1975), “Interpolating Spline Methods for Density Estimation I: Equi-Spaced Knots,” Annals of Statistics 3: 30–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watson, Geoffrey S. (1983), Statistics on Spheres. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Weissman, I. (1978), “Estimation of Parameters and Large Quantiles Based on the k Largest Observations,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 73: 812–15.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×