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Part III - Ruling Society

Implementation and Information Gathering

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 August 2018

Barbara Geddes
Affiliation:
University of California, Los Angeles
Joseph Wright
Affiliation:
Pennsylvania State University
Erica Frantz
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
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Summary

In this chapter we investigate the causes of dictatorial survival and breakdown, as well as why breakdown sometimes leads to democratization. Military-led regimes last less long than civilian, but personalization increases their durability while it reduces longevity in party-led regimes. Leadership changes can lead to regime collapse. The death of a dictator who has concentrated great power in his hands is especially likely to cause regime crisis. Personalization also affects the likelihood of a peaceful, negotiated transition, once survival appears unlikely. Dictatorships with more collegial decision making tend to negotiate their extrication from power, but personalized dictatorships often fight to the bitter end. Junta-led dictatorships usually negotiate peaceful transitions to democracy. Collegial civilian-led dictatorships less often exit peacefully than junta-led regimes, but more often than personalized regimes, whether civilian or military. Where a transition occurs peacefully via negotiation, the immediate outcome is usually democracy. Where, however, the dictator hangs on until forceful overthrow, democracy is less likely.
Type
Chapter
Information
How Dictatorships Work
Power, Personalization, and Collapse
, pp. 127 - 174
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

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  • Ruling Society
  • Barbara Geddes, University of California, Los Angeles, Joseph Wright, Pennsylvania State University, Erica Frantz, Michigan State University
  • Book: How Dictatorships Work
  • Online publication: 10 August 2018
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316336182.008
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  • Ruling Society
  • Barbara Geddes, University of California, Los Angeles, Joseph Wright, Pennsylvania State University, Erica Frantz, Michigan State University
  • Book: How Dictatorships Work
  • Online publication: 10 August 2018
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316336182.008
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Ruling Society
  • Barbara Geddes, University of California, Los Angeles, Joseph Wright, Pennsylvania State University, Erica Frantz, Michigan State University
  • Book: How Dictatorships Work
  • Online publication: 10 August 2018
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316336182.008
Available formats
×