Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-v5vhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-16T16:43:42.478Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - From Individual Preferences to Election Outcomes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 December 2009

Wouter van der Brug
Affiliation:
Universiteit van Amsterdam
Cees van der EijK
Affiliation:
University of Nottingham
Mark Franklin
Affiliation:
European University Institute, Florence
Get access

Summary

So far, we have studied effects of economic conditions on the strength of voters' propensity to support each of the parties competing for their votes. In this chapter, we move on to the second stage in the Downsean calculus of voting and assess the consequences for party choice of these changes in party support.

Our findings so far indicate that economic conditions have significant though not especially powerful effects on support for particular political parties. But the fact that these effects are not very powerful does not mean that the impact of economic conditions on overall election outcomes is necessarily small. As pointed out in the previous chapter, most of the more powerful independent variables tend to be relatively stable over the short run. The alignments of parties with sociostructural variables such as class and religion have a character that is more or less given, especially in the short term. Political parties' ideological stances do change over time, but rather slowly. The same is true of their position on issues, particularly important issues. So, while these variables largely explain differences in the attractiveness of various parties as options to vote for, the same variables cannot explain short-term changes in party choice. Economic conditions, on the other hand, can (and occasionally do) change rapidly. An apparently booming economy may come to a grinding halt in a very few months, with immediate consequences for economic growth and often for unemployment as well, consequences that are widely and rapidly experienced.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Economy and the Vote
Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries
, pp. 137 - 169
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×