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7 - Elite Opinion Formation and Its Electoral Consequences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 June 2021

Scott Sigmund Gartner
Affiliation:
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
Gary M. Segura
Affiliation:
Luskin School of Public Affairs, UCLA
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Summary

Casualties affect elections in two ways. First, wartime variables affected position formation, where higher state casualties increased the likelihood that challengers openly opposed the war. Second, casualties influence Senate elections directly. Incumbents are held responsible for the conduct of the war, and their vote share is adversely affected by higher casualty rates in their states. Although both incumbents and challengers face constraints, our findings suggest that incumbents face the greatest constraints while challenger behavior is endogenous to casualties. Candidates react strategically to the information provided to them by their state-level casualties, suggesting strategy is not reserved to the battlefield. Candidates behave strategically when formulating wartime positions, rightly perceiving that electorates respond to candidate position differences when voting. Analyses of elections during the Iraq and of Senator positions are taken during the Vietnam Wars. Even when national issues dominate headlines, advertisements, and campaigning, all politics remain local – especially wartime politics.

Type
Chapter
Information
Costly Calculations
A Theory of War, Casualties, and Politics
, pp. 189 - 220
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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