Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c47g7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T23:27:52.467Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

8 - Integrated Assessment modelling of human health impacts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2009

By
Pim Martens ,
Jan Rotmans  and
Dale S. Rothman
Edited by
P. Martens  and
A. J. McMichael
Pim Martens
Affiliation:
International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
Jan Rotmans
Affiliation:
International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
Dale S. Rothman
Affiliation:
International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
P. Martens
Affiliation:
Universiteit Maastricht, Netherlands
A. J. McMichael
Affiliation:
Australian National University, Canberra
Get access

Summary

Introduction

Although mathematical modelling is often used by epidemiologists – to gain insights into the observed dynamics of infectious disease epidemics, for example, or to estimate future time trends in diseases – the complex task of estimating future trends and outcomes in relation to global atmospheric change and human health requires the use of integrated, systems-based mathematical models (McMichael & Martens, 1995). Looking at the complexity of the interactions between global (environmental) changes and human health, we need an integrated approach to ensure that key interactions, feedbacks and effects are not inadvertently omitted from the analysis. The various pieces of this complex puzzle can no longer be examined in isolation. Integrated Assessment (IA) aims to fit the pieces of the puzzle together, thereby indicating priorities for policy.

There is increasing recognition and credibility for the rapidly evolving field of IA. Within the setting of the political arena, it is accepted that IA can be supportive in the long-term policy-planning process, while in the scientific community more and more scientists realize the complementary value of IA research.

At present modelling is the dominant method of performing IA, including looking at global-change impacts on human health. However, many studies that are either explicitly or implicitly integrated assessments are still qualitative in nature, without using any models. Furthermore, the complexity of the issues addressed and the value-laden character of assessment activities make it impossible to address this process using only one approach.

Type
Chapter
Information
Environmental Change, Climate and Health
Issues and Research Methods
 , pp. 197 - 225
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. (1991). Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. New York: Oxford University Press
Bertalanffy, L. V. (1968). General Systems Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications. New York: Braziller
Carter, T. R. et al. (1994). IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. London: University College London
Darmstadter, J. & Toman, M. A. (1993). Nonlinearities and surprises in climate change: an introduction and overview. In Assessing Surprises and Nonlinearities in Greenhouse Warming. Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Workshop, ed. J. Darmstadter & M. A. Toman, pp. 1–10. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future
Davis, A. J.et al. (1998). Making mistakes when predicting shifts in response to global warming. Nature, 391, 783–6CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Forrester, J. W. (1968). Principles of Systems. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press Inc
Funtowicz, S. O. & Ravetz, J. R. (1990). Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. In Philosophy and Methodology of the Social Sciences ed. W. Leinfellner & G. Eberlein, p. 229. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Goodman, M. R. (1974). Study Notes in System Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press Inc
Hay, S. I.et al. (1996). Review: remotely sensed surrogates of meteorological data for the study of the distribution and abundance of arthropod vectors of disease. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 90, 1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilderink, H. (2000). World population in transition, an integrated regional modelling framework. Population studies. Amsterdam: Thela Thesis
Hulme, M. (1996). Climate Change and Southern Africa: an Exploration of Some Potential Impacts and Implications in the SADC Region. Norwich: WWF International Climate Research Unit
Janssen, M. (1998). Modelling Global Change: the Art of Integrated Assessment Modelling. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
Janssen, M. A. & Martens, P. (1997). Modelling malaria as a complex adaptive system. Artificial Life, 3, 213–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laszlo, E. (1972). The Systems View of the World: the Natural Philosophy of the New Development in Sciences. New York, NY: Braziller
Lindsay, S. W. & Martens, P. (1998). Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 76, 33–45Google ScholarPubMed
Lindsay, S. W., Parson, L. & Thomas, C. J. (1998). Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. Arabiensis, using climate data. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 265, 847–54Google ScholarPubMed
Lines, S. (1993). The effects of climatic and land-use changes on insect vectors of human disease. In Insects in a Changing Environment. Harpenden: Academic Press
Martens, P. (1995a). Climate change and malaria: exploring the risks. Medicine and War, 11, 202–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martens, P. (1995b). Modelling the Effect of Global Warming on the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis. Bilthoven, The Netherlands: RIVM (National Institute of Public Health and the Environment)
Martens, P. (1998). Health and Climate Change: Modelling the Impacts of Global Warming and Ozone Depletion. London, UK: Earthscan Publications Ltd
Martens, P. (1999a). MIASMA: Modelling Framework for the Health Impact Assessment of Man-Induced Atmospheric Changes – CD ROM. Electronic Series on Integrated Assessment Modeling 2
Martens, P. (1999b). How will climate change affect human health?American Scientist, 87, 534–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martens, P.et al. (1995). Potential impacts of global climate change on malaria risk. Environmental Health Perspectives, 103, 458–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martens, P.et al. (1996). The impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence: an assessment of the Netherlands and Australia. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 1, 229–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martens, P., Jetten, T. H. & Focks, D. A. (1997). Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Climatic Change, 35, 145–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martens, P.et al. (1999). Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Global Environmental Change, S9, S89–S107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, P. & Lefebvre, M. (1995). Malaria and climate: sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate. Ambio, 24, 200–7Google Scholar
McMichael, A. J. & Martens, P. (1995). The health impacts of global climate change: grappling with scenarios, predictive models and multiple uncertainties. Ecosystem Health, 1, 23–33Google Scholar
McMichael, A. J. et al. (2000). Climate change and human health: mapping and modelling potential impacts. In Spatial Epidemiology: Methods and Applications, ed. P. Elliott et al., pp. 444–61. Oxford: Oxford University Press
Molineaux, L. (1988). The epidemiology of human malaria as an explanation of its distribution, including some implications for its control. In Malaria: Principles and Practice of Malariology, ed. W. H. Wernsdorfer & S. I. McGregor, pp. 913–98. Edinburgh: Churchill Livingstone
Morgan, G. M. & Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty – a Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, p. 332. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K. & Belitz, K. (1994). Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science, 263, 641–6CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Parry, M. L.et al. (1999). Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9(SI), S51–S67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parson, E. A. (1996). Three dilemmas in the integrated assessment of climate change. Climatic Change, 34, 315–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patz, J. A. & Balbus, J. M. (1996). Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change. Climate Research, 6, 113–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearce, D. W., Cline, W. R. et al. (1996). The social costs of climate change: greenhouse damage and the benefits of control. In Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, ed. J. P. Bruce, H. Lee & E. F. Haites, pp. 179–224. New York: Cambridge University Press
Poveda, G. et al. (2000). Climate and ENSO variability associated with vector-borne diseases in Colombia. In El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, H. F. Diaz & V. Markgraf, pp. 183–204. New York: Cambridge University Press
Ravetz, J. R. (1997). Integrated Environmental Assessment Forum: Developing Guidelines for Good Practise. Darmstadt: Darmstadt University of Technology
Rodin, E. Y. (ed.) (1990). Mathematical Modelling: a Tool for Problem Solving in Engineering, Physical, Biological and Social Sciences. Oxford: Pergamon Press
Rogers, D. J. & Randolph, S. E. (2000). The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science, 289, 1763–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, C. & Parry, M. L. (1994). Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature, 367, 133–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Root, T. & Schneider, S. (1995). Ecology and climate: research strategies and implications. Science, 269, 334–41CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rotmans, J. (1998). Methods for IA: the challenges and opportunities ahead. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 3, 155–79. [Special issue: Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Environmental Assessment, ed. J. Rotmans & P. Vellinga]CrossRef
Rotmans, J. & Dowlatabadi, H. (1998). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: Evaluation of Methods and Strategies. In Human Choice and Climate Change: An International Social Science Assessment, ed. S. Rayner & E. Malone. Washington: Battelle Press
Rotmans, J. & de Vries, H. J. M. (1997). Perspectives on Global Change: the TARGETS Approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Rotmans, J. & van Asselt, M. B. A. (1999). Integrated assessment modelling. In Climate Change: an Integrated Perspective, ed. P. Martens & J. Rotmans, pp. 239–75. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic PublishersCrossRef
Rotmans, J. et al. (1994). Global Change and Sustainable Development. Bilthoven, The Netherlands: RIVM (National Institute of Public Health and the Environment)
Rykiel, E. J. (1996). Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecological Modelling, 90, 229–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sethi, I. & Jain, A. K. (eds.) (1991). Artificial Neural Networks and Pattern Recognition: Old and New Connections. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Slaper, H.et al. (1996). Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements. Nature, 384, 256–8CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Snow, R. W.et al. (1998). Models to predict the intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: applications to the burden of disease in kenya. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 92, 601–6CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sutherst, R. W. (1998). Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments. International Journal of Parasitology, 28, 935–45CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sutherst, R. W., Maywald, G. F. & Skarratt, D. B. (1995). Predicting insect distributions in a changed climate. In Insects in a Changing Environment, 17th Symposium of the Royal Entomological Society of London, pp. 60–91, ed. R. Harrington & N. E. Stork
Tol, R. S. J. (1999). New Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part I: Dynamic Estimates. Amsterdam: Free University, Institute for Environmental Studies
Tol, R. S. J. & Dowlatabadi, H. (2001). Vector-borne diseases, development and climate change. Integrated Assessment, 2(4), 173–181CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tol, R. S. J. & Frankhauser, S. (1998). On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 3, 63–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Asselt, M. B. A. (2000). Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: the PRIMA Approach to Decision Support. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Weinstein, M. C. et al. (1987). Forecasting coronary heart disease incidence, mortality and cost: the coronary heart policy model. American Journal of Public Health, 77, 1417–26CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Integrated Assessment modelling of human health impacts
    • By Pim Martens, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Jan Rotmans, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Dale S. Rothman, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
  • Edited by P. Martens, Universiteit Maastricht, Netherlands, A. J. McMichael, Australian National University, Canberra
  • Book: Environmental Change, Climate and Health
  • Online publication: 28 July 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535987.009
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Integrated Assessment modelling of human health impacts
    • By Pim Martens, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Jan Rotmans, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Dale S. Rothman, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
  • Edited by P. Martens, Universiteit Maastricht, Netherlands, A. J. McMichael, Australian National University, Canberra
  • Book: Environmental Change, Climate and Health
  • Online publication: 28 July 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535987.009
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Integrated Assessment modelling of human health impacts
    • By Pim Martens, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Jan Rotmans, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Dale S. Rothman, International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
  • Edited by P. Martens, Universiteit Maastricht, Netherlands, A. J. McMichael, Australian National University, Canberra
  • Book: Environmental Change, Climate and Health
  • Online publication: 28 July 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535987.009
Available formats
×