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This paper analyzes a regime-switching New Keynesian model to understand what happens to the aggregate economy when the nominal interest rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB). Contrary to the literature, our model predicts that the aggregate demand curve is not always upward sloping when the ZLB binds. Instead, it depends on expectations. If the expected duration of the ZLB is short but consistent with expectations surveys, the AD curve can be downward sloping. In that case, the fiscal multiplier is moderate and supply-side reforms are expansionary. These results complement existing findings in the literature.
China’s transition to the nation state, on a deep level, is incomplete. Tibet and Xinjiang remain the peripheral holdouts. At the policy level, the demise of class universalism deprives the central state of the institutional principles of legitimate government to project universal legitimacy in the two historically least incorporated regions. At the institutional level, the autonomous system has nurtured key conditions for ethnic mobilization for these two groups: politicized identities and ethno-territories. Among the contextual factors responsible the Soviet dissolution – core ethnic regions, weakening of previous social contracts, and democratization – only the Tibetans and Uighurs possess core ethnic regions and were particularly disadvantaged by economic liberalization due to their distinct ascriptive features. The absence of democratization, along with China’s demographic/territorial core, precludes a breakaway by these two groups, but large state outlays suggest continuing challenges for national integration. Despite various reform platforms, socialist autonomy – compromising autonomy but distributional benefits – remains the prevailing vision under the current political leadership. In the international arena, ethnic strife places constraints on China’s security and foreign policy behavior as well as on its international reactions.
In the United States, deep, persistent disparities in higher education outcomes exist by race/ethnicity and income. Inequities in college and university enrolment by race and ethnicity have narrowed, but access to economic opportunity is increasingly determined by programme of study and completion of recognised credentials, where serious disparities remain. Stratification of higher education opportunity by race and ethnicity and by income has been on the rise, exacerbating group differences in outcomes: elite, selective colleges are becoming less diverse while African American and Latino students are increasingly concentrated in non-selective two- and four-year institutions. Despite these dispiriting trends, there are reasons for optimism. Researchers and practitioners have made significant progress in testing and identifying institutional practices that can improve outcomes for students from marginalised populations. In addition, public and policymaker concerns about college cost, student debt and institutional performance are creating new openings for consideration of policies that can mitigate current trends.
Several generations of scholarship have identified the medieval development of urban self-government as crucial for European patterns of state formation. However, extant theories, emphasizing structural factors such as initial endowments and warfare, do little to explain the initial emergence of institutions of urban self-government before CE 1200 or why similar institutions did not emerge outside of Europe. We argue that a large-scale collapse of public authority in the ninth and tenth centuries allowed a bottom-up reform movement in West Francia (the Cluniac movement), directed by clergy but with popular backing, to push for ecclesiastical autonomy and asceticism in the eleventh and twelfth centuries. These social realignments, facilitated by new norms about ecclesiastical office holding, stimulated the urban associationalism that led to the initial emergence of autonomous town councils. Using a panel data set of 643 towns in the period between 800 and 1800, we show that medieval towns were substantially more likely to establish autonomous town councils in the period between 1000 and 1200 if they were situated in the vicinity of Cluniac monasteries. These findings are corroborated by regressions that use distance from Cluny—the movement's place of origin—to instrument for proximity to Cluniac monasteries.
This chapter challenges the default use of the language of professionalization with reference to the Roman army of the imperial period and argues that while certain usages of the term ‘professional’ may be valid, there are so many other unhelpful modernising connotations arising from such terminology that it is better avoided.
Chapter 11 reiterates that after the (premature) celebration of the splendor of the EMU, the crisis has soon shown the sad reality. A debate on the various prospects open has then arisen, involving economists, politologists, political parties, and laymen. The EMU is now really at a crossroads. A number of differences divide the various countries and make amendments to its institutions very difficult to devise and, even more, to implement. The Union would need more common institutions, notably a fiscal union, but there are a number of obstacles to its implementation. These derive from structural differences between the countries that have even been exacerbated by the effects of the crisis and differences finding their roots in historical, cultural, and material differences. The main alternatives open to the EMU are: its break up, a many-speed Union, exit of some countries, structural reforms of the EMU institutions and policies. While the perspective of a break up seems to fade, the other alternatives are still grounded. Some steps for pursuing over the next years not only economic and political goals, but also democratic accountability and effective governance are possible. Much will depend on the orientation of the new Commission.
This chapter discusses alternative policy approaches that may be pertinent to digital platform markets at large. It evaluates the strengths and limits of ex ante regulation, franchise bidding, public ownership, and competition policy enforcement, and highlights critical institional constraints that set the limits of desirable policy approaches in digital industries. This chapter suggests in particular the neeed to support ex post enforcement with complementary forms of ex ante intervention.
This article examines the effects of UK welfare reform since 2008 on people with mental health conditions and disabilities. The results have been profound, particularly during a time of economic austerity, damaging the social safety net and pushing many vulnerable people into poverty and hardship. It has perpetuated inequalities and increased the social exclusion of disabled groups. The holes in the safety net require repair, alongside extensive social policy reform to both protect and empower people with disabilities and long-term conditions.
On August 9, 2014, Michael Brown, an unarmed eighteen-year-old African American man, was fatally shot by Darren Wilson, a white police officer, following a violent altercation on the streets of Ferguson, Missouri. With many of the crucial facts surrounding Brown’s death under dispute – in particular, whether Wilson’s stop of Brown was justified, whether Wilson or Brown initiated the confrontation, whether Brown surrendered or resisted arrest – many residents in the majority African American community took to the streets to protest what they viewed as an emblematic instance of police brutality, as well as general indifference among community leaders toward the concerns of black and brown residents. In response, Ferguson police – and eventually the Missouri National Guard – mustered an intimidating show of force in an effort to contain the protests. The presence of large numbers of heavily armed police and guardsmen exacerbated an already tense situation, leading to charged and sometimes violent encounters between protestors and law enforcement officials. Wilson’s killing of Brown, the heated and sometimes violent protests, and the extraordinary heavy-handedness of the police response made the events in Ferguson national news, riveting public attention and forcing conversations about police brutality and the over-policing of communities of color.
Despite being at the forefront of the global policy agenda, fuel subsidy reform is understudied and its impact on trade is not particularly well understood. This type of reform could have a huge impact on market performance by increasing transportation costs. I present a case study from Ethiopia, which removed its fuel subsidies and increased the price of diesel price by 39% overnight on 4 October 2008. What is the impact of such an increase in diesel price on transportation costs and hence grain prices in developing countries such as Ethiopia? I use spatial difference-in-difference (sDID) on distance from major markets to assess the effects of removing the fuel subsidy on grain price dispersion. The sDID leverages distance from the national capital to investigate the impact of fuel subsidy reform on markets located at different distances from consumer centers. The results indicate that remote markets experienced high price dispersion compared to markets near the capital.
This chapter examines the limitations of international intervention in dealing with socioeconomic violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The argument advanced here is that the international intervention was limited in two respects: first, by its narrow understanding of ‘justice’; second, by the priorities embedded in post-socialist economic reforms, which left no space for justice considerations. Thus, the chapter analyses, on the one hand, how international officials in Bosnia understood transitional justice, as well as the limited and flawed implementation of return programmes, reparations, and other aspects of reparative justice. On the other hand, it looks at economic and social reforms promoted by international institutions at the end of the conflict, showing that they posed significant obstacles to redressing the legacies of socioeconomic violence and achieving socioeconomic justice. Reforms in the fields of labour laws and social policy, privatisations and industrial policy, and macroeconomic policy are analysed in this part of the chapter.
The context of this paper is the several innovative reforms since the Australian government changed the family-law system more than forty years ago with the enactment of the Family Law Act 1975 (Cth). Whilst no-fault divorce was introduced over four decades ago, the watershed effect of replacing a blaming culture with a collaborative problem-solving approach to family disputing has provided a stepping stone for a progressive pathway to less adversarialism in family conflict. This narrative resonates throughout the family-law system today. It also continues to guide the justice discourse in family matters. This paper focuses on developments in the family-law system canvassing several legislative amendments that demonstrate the use of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) as a means of improving access to justice in relation to family disputes in Australia. It is argued that, in the family-law system, justice and ADR are inextricably linked. In support of this contention, the growth, development and evaluation of family dispute resolution is considered; access to justice issues that arise are highlighted. Finally, it reviews ramifications for the future considering recommendations from the recent inquiry into the family-law system.
This chapter is a review of the early debates on how best to do the transformation from socialist central planning to a market economy with private capitalist owners sets the stage. It is noted that the popular euphoria generated by the fall of the Berlin Wall permeated the world academic community with numerous papers and conferences on the subject, and a broad consensus on the main changes was reached; however, a wide rift occurred on two key points: should this be done rapidly or gradually, and what should come first: market liberalization or development of new institutions? An important clarification is made that criticisms of the Washington Consensus for ignoring social costs of liberalization and institutional development were unfounded straw-man depictions. All relevant documents or statements of international institutions clearly include both of these elements; at most, such criticisms could justifiably note IMF and others paid insufficient attention to these elements.
The old debate in history on how much individual leaders matter compared to underlying forces that move things is explored in this chapter for the post-communist transition episode. Key leaders in Central Europe, like Havel and Klaus in Czechoslovakia, and Wałęsa, Mazowiecki, and Balcerowicz in Poland, may have had the historical force of a return to prewar Europe behind them, but it was their strong commitment that resulted in seizing the opportunity of 1989’s critical juncture and moving fast to consolidate Big Bang reforms before old and new vested interests could capture the process. In Bulgaria, Romania, and even more so farther east, remnants of the old elite did not have this commitment and used the excuse of historical inertia to slow the process to their personal benefit. The best example of this was the almost complete lack of reforms in the three years of Kravchuk’s presidency in Ukraine. Some exceptions on both sides existed – Slovakia and Serbia hesitated despite the European heritage, while Yeltsin in Russia without this incentive initially tried to leverage this critical juncture into real reforms led by a capable and committed reformer Gaidar – the power of the old-guard interest soon led to aborting this Big Bang effort.
This chapter concludes with five main stylized facts. First the extent of reform progress and socioeconomic performance diverged considerably in three decades, with many countries essential completing reforms, but a few only slightly changed from the communist period. Second, in all post-communist countries, the levels of income and living standards are an improvement over the socialist period. Third, the most advanced reformers have gone a long way to catch-up to the EU, with incomes two to three times higher. Four, all countries saw a new capitalist class emerge, but, in the former USSR, a new super-rich group of oligarchs emerged and exerted great political power. Fifth, corruption has been reduced significantly in the advanced reformers, many now within the EU sphere, but persists at very high levels farther East.
This chapter discusses the contribution of BIS research to the shift in the way financial stability issues have been looked at before and after the great financial crisis of 2007–9. It also considers the policy implications for the post-crisis reforms. The 1997–8 Asian crisis was an important turning point, focusing BIS research on the endogenous causes of financial instability and thus on the resilience and the risks of the financial system as a whole. From the late 1990s, the BIS started advocating a macroprudential approach to financial stability, including the adoption of countercyclical macroprudential policies. These ideas, while being shared by some academics and central banks, were largely ignored in policy circles, including in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The chapter argues that the great financial crisis of 2007–9 catapulted these same ideas to the top of the reform agenda. Work done previously by the BIS and others, i.a. on the issue of countercyclical capital buffers, could be leveraged and find its way on the reform agenda pushed by the Financial Stability Board and the G20. The ‘measured contrarianism‘ of the BIS in this area thus added real value.
The taskforce appointed in 2016 to undertake a review of the legal sector in Kenya highlighted a decline in public service and pro bono work as one of the challenges facing the legal profession in the country. In its report, the taskforce made several proposals to tackle the problem, all directed at qualified lawyers. This article seeks to contribute to the deliberations anticipated from the findings of the taskforce, by suggesting instead that the problem of a declining public service ethic be addressed by targeting law students. Bringing students face to face with real clients and their needs can play an important role in broadening their horizons and shaping their beliefs about, and attitudes towards, the different possible careers they can pursue with their education. The article specifically recommends clinical legal education as a practical and comprehensive means by which students can be encouraged from early on to have an interest in pro bono and public service work.
In this chapter, we examine the performance of the Irish economy over the period 2008 to 2014. In particular, we examine whether the recovery observed was due to the successful adoption of structural reforms in labour and product markets or whether the improved performance was due to a rebalancing of the Irish economy, post-2008, away from the disproportionate influence of the construction (nontradable) sector and back to the more productive tradable sector. Prior to 2007, Ireland had seen the emergence of a significant, property-related credit boom that resulted in the Irish economy being increasingly influenced by the nontradable sector. This was in sharp contrast to the earlier period of the Celtic tiger, which had mainly relied on export-orientated growth. We use a small open economy DSGE model with a tradable and a nontradable sector to examine this issue. Our results suggest that the financial crisis acted as a rebalancing mechanism for the Irish economy, with the tradable sector contracting less and recovering quicker than the nontradable sector. Our model-based simulations indicate that the Irish recovery is mostly export driven, with structural reforms playing a very minor role in stimulating growth in the immediate period after the crisis.
Over recent years, a consensus has emerged that 'policy failures that allowed imbalances to get so large' were probably the main root cause of the Euro area crisis. Reflecting this, the new Euro area governance arrangements include a Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) that seeks to identify and take corrective action against emerging imbalances. This chapter uses a Bayesian structural VAR model to assess the feasibility of managing macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area using four macroeconomic policy tools: fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, product market structural reforms and labour market reforms. Consistent with the emerging literature, it finds that managing macroeconomic imbalances is likely to be difficult. However, it raises the tantalising prospect that a combination of eliminating structural rigidities before macroeconomic imbalances arise plus using macroprudential policy to manage emerging macroeconomic imbalances could be effective.
Financial crisis could play a key role in changing the policy equilibrium concerning financial markets and institutions. Using a recent comprehensive dataset on financial liberalization across ninety-four countries for the period between 1973 and 2015, we formally test the validity of this prediction for the member states of the European Union as well as a global sample. We contribute by (a) using a new up-to-date dataset of reforms and crises and (b) subjecting it to a combination of difference-in-differences and local projection estimations. In the global sample, our findings on the causal relationship between crises and liberal reforms consistently point out a negative direction between the two, suggesting that governments react to crises by intervening in financial markets. However, in a dynamic setting with impulse responses, we also illustrate that such interventions are only temporary and liberalization process restarts after a financial crisis. In the EU sample, however, we do not find sufficient evidence to support either of these observations.