The agricultural research for development (AR4D) domain is becoming increasingly complex, and theory of change (ToC) approaches can provide critical guidance through the maze of transformation concerning engagement, partnership, and research. Most of the major benefits that accrue through the use of ToCs relate to internal learning within project teams. Finding the balance between applying a ToC that is both useful and time- and resource-smart is challenging and may need iteration to get right. Quantitative impact assessment methods must be blended with qualitative methods in ToC-based AR4D, so that evaluation becomes about both the process and numbers, while new methods require developing for blended evaluation. The evidence base concerning the efficiency, efficacy, and failings of ToC-based AR4D urgently requires further development and synthesis, and the lessons must be applied broadly.

In this chapter, I offer an original analytical framework for what I call recognition conflicts. I propose a definition and a typology that can help identify these conflicts beyond the specific geographical and temporal boundaries of my empirical cases. The second part of the chapter is intended as a methodological and conceptual framework to orient the reader throughout the remainder of the book. I provide a rationale for the country case selection, a description of methods used and my methodological approaches, and a brief discussion of key concepts and terminology.

The preface describes the research methodology and the writing process that led to this book. It begins by explaining how the author collected information from the relevant sources, verified its completeness and accuracy, and analysed it under a unified framework. It then turns to the issue of storytelling style and to the author’s decision to present his findings in the form of a fictionalized account. In so doing, the preface discusses the problem of verifiability of classified information, the issue of trust between the narrator and the audience, and the promises and pitfalls of literary writing when it comes to informing, reporting, or commenting on real life.

In the past two decades, several democracies have slipped into democratic recession. Faced with economic or security crises, democratically elected executives in Latin America, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Africa have used their popularity to push for legislation – particularly constitutional amendments – that, over time, destroys systems of checks and balances, hinders free and fair elections, and erodes political rights and civil liberties. Across the world, these heads of government have found ways to subvert democratic norms while simultaneously maintaining a democratic façade. Using and abusing elections and institutional reform, they are turning new and old democracies alike into competitive authoritarian regimes.

Chapter 5 – Heuristics and Positions: A Framework for Analysing Discourses of Humanisation – discusses what is necessary from a methodological perspective to analyse the appearance of the individual human being in global politics. To this end, the chapter develops an interpretative methodology and presents in more detail the abductive research logic and the method employed in the case studies. The book draws on positioning analysis and introduces it to the toolbox of IR scholars. The chapter also outlines the research design and its operationalisation for the case studies. The analytical framework allows overcoming methodological individualism by studying the appearance of the individual human being in global politics instead of studying individual human beings. In doing so, the individual human being is made analytically accessible for scholars of global politics.

This chapter shows how the paternalist policy style impacts social policy implementation at the provincial level and below. The top-down approach in paternalist provinces produces relatively standardized social policy but reduces opportunities for officials to innovate and tailor policies to local conditions. Fiscal transfers from the center often foster corruption and dependency in these provinces. Thus, many paternalist provinces have experienced rising inequality despite targeted policies and transfers. While focusing on health policy in paternalist provinces, this chapter also discusses the impact of paternalism on education, poverty alleviation, and housing.

This chapter explicates how to apply heuristic Bayesian reasoning in qualitative case study research. Steps include defining a set of mutually exclusive hypotheses to compare, assessing prior odds, identifying evidence, evaluating likelihood ratios for the evidence, and updating via Bayes’ rule to obtain posterior odds for the hypotheses.

Mixed provinces exhibit elements of pragmatism in addition to elements of paternalism. They tend to be more politically open than paternalist provinces but more restrictive than their pragmatist counterparts. This combination produces a policy style in which provincial leaders take a top-down approach to policymaking and standardize new policies across the province yet tend to be relatively frugal in their social policy allocations both in relative and per capita spending. In some cases, mixed provinces are caught in the middle: they do not generate as much revenue as coastal provinces, but they are not poor enough to be eligible for certain fiscal transfers from the central government. As a result, the budget for social policy in these provinces is often among the smallest in the country. This chapter focuses on health policy in mixed provinces, while also discussing the impact of a mixed policy style on education, poverty alleviation, and housing.

This chapter introduces Bayesian reasoning for qualitative research, highlights contributions to methodological literature, and overviews the book.

This chapter explicates how to apply explicit Bayesian analysis in qualitative case study research, which involves quantifying probabilities and leveraging the mathematical apparatus of Bayesian probability theory. This approach allows us to more effectively communicate our judgments and make more systematic inferences from complex or ambiguous evidence.

This chapter shows how pragmatist provinces shape social policy provision through the devolution of responsibility to local government. Pragmatist provinces have followed Deng Xiaoping’s “do what works” approach to the policy process. Despite the risks within an authoritarian system, officials in pragmatist provinces are more likely to experiment and innovate. These provinces devolve more responsibility to their localities, which offers opportunities for local officials to learn new skills and develop capacity in new areas. However, as they are generally wealthier, pragmatist provinces receive fewer fiscal transfers from the center for social policy. Therefore, they sometimes drag their feet in implementing unfunded mandates that do not coincide with their provincial priorities. While focusing on health policy in pragmatist provinces, this chapter also discusses the impact of pragmatism on education, poverty alleviation, and housing.

This chapter examines the significance of attitudinal research in understanding the dynamics of language contact situations in multilingual societies from a cross-disciplinary perspective. This chapter provides practical guidance for the study of language attitudes and ideologies in multilingual communities by discussing issues relating to research planning and design (e.g. identifying which languages are to be explored, whose language attitudes are to be examined in the community), as well as data analysis and interpretation (e.g. quantitative data collected through questionnaires or matched-guise techniques, or qualitative data through interviews or ethnographies). Other important considerations for attitudinal research in multilingual communities are also covered (e.g. the mismatch between positive attitudes towards a language or languages and language use, or links between language policies and language attitudes in language revitalisation projects). The main points made in the chapter are illustrated by means of two case studies. The first relates to language attitudes in multilingual classrooms and the second focuses on language attitudes and ideologies amongst new speakers of minority languages with a focus on Galician in the Autonomous Community of Galicia in north-western Spain.

The opening chapter provides a brief outline of the conventional division of labor between qualitative and quantitative methods in the social sciences. It sketches the main standards that govern case study research. It then offers an overview of subsequent chapters, which challenge some of these distinctions or deepen our understanding of what makes qualitative case studies useful for both causal inference and policy practice.