This paper presents and tests a method to scale up from the
dynamics of infection and disease on single plants in
order to predict the behaviour of epidemics in populations of plants,
in the presence of a biological control agent.
Specifically, we quantify the effect of the antagonistic fungus,
Trichoderma viride, Pers ex. Gray, on the pathozone
dynamics of the damping-off fungus, Rhizoctonia solani Kühn
on radish. The results from these individual-based
experiments are used to predict the progress of an epidemic and
the results are compared with experimental
epidemics in microcosms. The addition of T. viride
close to a germinating radish plant reduced the extent of the
pathozone influence from 22·6 to 13·8 mm. Trichoderma
viride also inhibited the evolution of infection efficiency
of R. solani. The evolution of infection efficiency over time
is described by a simple non-linear model for the
probability of infection with distance, in which certain of the
parameters vary with time. By combining this with
a model based on conditional probabilities for the location and
infectivity of randomly dispersed propagules within
the pathozone, we were able to scale up and predict the disease progress of
R. solani in a population of radish
plants, and the extent of control effected by T. viride.
Disease progress rose progressively to a maximum of 42%
diseased plants in the unprotected crop compared with a sigmoidal
approach to 13% in the protected crop. We
show that these properties are consistent with a monomolecular function
for primary infection with a temporally-varying rate parameter. We also
show that the central region of the pathozone, where the joint probabilities of
occurrence of a randomly located propagule and its ability to infect
are maximal, has a large influence on the
sensitivity of epidemics to pathozone dynamics. This is an important
example of interpreting population
behaviour of an epidemic from the infection and disease of single plants.