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This chapter charts Syria’s descent into conflict, from the eruption of demonstrations in March 2011 to the unrestrained brutality that would come to characterise the Syrian conflict – itself an umbrella for a number of distinct conflicts, both civil and international. The chapter focuses on the Syrian government’s leading role in Syria’s conflagration. Beginning with an analysis of the conflict’s origins and the Syrian government’s strategy, which developed from suppression and terror to a ‘total war’, the chapter describes the conduct of the Syrian government against its own people, elaborating on the chemical weapons attacks. It then discusses Russia’s and Iran’s intervention and concludes with an assessment of the implications of the conflict on the civil society in Syria in terms of deaths and casualties, demographic changes in the population of Syria, and the economic repercussions of the conflict.
Introducing the two regions at the heart of this study, chapter two maps out the geographical, political, economic, and cultural setting of the book. While it focuses on the years around the Great Reforms, it puts this period into broader perspective, tracing continuity and change throughout the nineteenth century. Thus, the chapter combines elements of temporal and spatial comparison, highlighting the distinctiveness of the two regions and their similarities. First, it discusses their dynamic, and diverging, role in the imperial imagination. While both regions were considered to be different from both the empire’s peripheries and traditional heartlands, they were appropriated as part of the imperial core, in discourse and in practice. Second, the chapter reviews the demographic composition of the two territories, their changing institutional landscapes and forms of governance. Finally, it charts the socio-economic conditions under which people lived, while paying close attention to the effects of migration. In all of these questions, the situation of Muslim Tatars is foregrounded.
How and why do predators sometimes fuel disease outbreaks but other times thwart them? Answering this could help explain spatial and temporal variation in disease and could explain why attempts to control disease by manipulating predators sometimes fail. We give eight mechanisms by which predators can suppress/spread disease in prey populations, exploring each generally and reviewing evidence from the study system that has been the focus of much of our research. This system focuses on Daphnia dentifera, a dominant herbivore in lake food webs in the Midwestern United States. D. dentifera is prey to bluegill sunfish and phantom midge larvae, as well as host to a virulent fungal pathogen. We review evidence for bluegill sunfish as ‘healthy herds’ predators that reduce disease, and for midge larvae as ‘predator spreaders’ that fuel disease outbreaks. We find that both predators can impact disease via multiple mechanisms. Bluegill feed selectively on infected hosts and also depress disease in Daphnia by reducing the density of midge larvae which spread disease. They also increase the abundance of Ceriodaphnia, which reduce disease. Midge larvae increase disease in their hosts, in part by releasing spores into the water column where they can be consumed by additional hosts.
U.S. federal agencies should treat Latinos as a racial or quasi-racial group in demographic data collection, rather than an ethnic or pan-ethnic group, as they do currently. Survey data must rely on self-reported racial and ethnic identification. But people often identify their own race differently from how others perceive them. In order for self-reported survey data to be useful for the enforcement of antidiscrimination law, it is important that it tracks how others perceive the respondents’ race and ethnicity, not just how they see themselves. To capture racial perceptions of Latinos, government surveys need to balance three subsidiary criteria: the promotion of self-reported racial identifications that are useful as a proxy for the perceptions of others; the ability to measure intra-group differences in how Latinos are racially perceived; and the extent to which Latinos are collectively perceived as a race. A survey format that treated Latinos as a racial group would likely be more amenable to these goals than the current format, but there are some areas, which this paper identifies, where further empirical research is needed in order to be sure.
This chapter reviews the Lebanese constitution of 1926 and examines how the confessional provisions were inserted during the French mandate (1920-1943). It shows that confessional articles were drafted by the Lebanese drafters of the constitution to preserve communal identities and to stave off communal strife. The chapter further investigates the implications of this constitution with it quotas and confessional formula insofar as it was ill-equipped to adjust to demographic changes over time.
India has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.
This paper draws on recent advances in our knowledge (much of it owed to the proliferation of military diplomas) and a new analytical method to quantify the number of soldiers and their children who received Roman citizenship between 14 and 212 c.e. Although significant uncertainties remain, these can be quantified and turn out to be small relative to the overall scale of enfranchisement. The paper begins by reviewing what is known about grants of citizenship to soldiers, with particular attention to the remaining uncertainties, before presenting a quantitative model of the phenomenon. The total number of beneficiaries was somewhere in the region 0.9–1.6 million — significantly lower than previous estimates have suggested. It also emerges that the rate of enfranchisement varied substantially over time, in line with significant changes in manpower, length of service (and hence the number of recruits and discharged veterans) and the rate of family formation among soldiers. The Supplementary Material available online (https://doi.org/10.1017/S0075435819000662) contains a database of military diplomas (Supplementary Appendix 1), a mathematical model of enfranchisement implemented in MS Excel (Supplementary Appendix 2), a description of the model (Supplementary Appendix 3A) and a derivation of the model of attrition across service cohorts in Fig. 6 (Supplementary Appendix 3B).
Chapter V focuses on the life of a carpenter’s family as a representation of a typical artisan family in the early Roman Empire and explores its size, composition, income, social position, and daily routine.
The regeneration niche defines the specific environmental requirements of the early phases of a plant's life cycle. It is critical for the long-term persistence of plant populations, particularly for obligate seeders that are highly vulnerable to stochastic events in fire-prone ecosystems. Here, we assessed germination characteristics and the relationship between population structure, soil seed bank density and fire response in Stachystemon vinosus (Euphorbiaceae), a rare endemic shrub from Western Australia, from burnt and long unburnt habitats. Many plants in long unburnt habitat were similar in size to those in recently burnt habitat. Soil seed bank density was related to plant abundance and fire history with density lower in burnt than unburnt sites. Thus, inter-fire recruitment may play a critical role in the requirements of the study species. To assess the dormancy status and germination requirements we used a ‘move-along’ experiment with temperatures from six seasonal phases of the year. Seeds were incubated under light and dark conditions, with and without smoked water, and with and without dry after-ripening. Germination was most effective when seeds were treated with smoked water and incubated in the dark at temperatures resembling autumn/winter conditions. After-ripening increased germination in light and dark incubated seeds in the absence of smoked water but was unnecessary for optimal germination in smoked water treated seeds. Irrespective of treatment, seeds showed a requirement for cooler temperatures for germination. These results suggest that rising temperatures and changes in fire regime associated with global warming may alter future germination responses of Stachystemon vinosus.
Rapid increases in herbicide resistance have highlighted the ability of weeds to undergo genetic change within a short period of time. That change, in turn, has resulted in an increasing emphasis in weed science on the evolutionary ecology and potential adaptation of weeds to herbicide selection. Here we argue that a similar emphasis would also be invaluable for understanding another challenge that will profoundly alter weed biology: the rapid rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and the associated changes in climate. Our review of the literature suggests that elevated CO2 and climate change will impose strong selection pressures on weeds and that weeds will often have the capacity to respond with rapid adaptive evolution. Based on current data, climate change and rising CO2 levels are likely to alter the evolution of agronomic and invasive weeds, with consequences for distribution, community composition, and herbicide efficacy. In addition, we identify four key areas that represent clear knowledge gaps in weed evolution: (1) differential herbicide resistance in response to a rapidly changing CO2/climate confluence; (2) shifts in the efficacy of biological constraints (e.g., pathogens) and resultant selection shifts in affected weed species; (3) climate-induced phenological shifts in weed distribution, demography, and fitness relative to crop systems; and (4) understanding and characterization of epigenetics and the differential expression of phenotypic plasticity versus evolutionary adaptation. These consequences, in turn, should be of fundamental interest to the weed science community.
The Global Societal Accounts (GSA) answer some fundamental questions about society: How many are we? Who are we? How are we organised? What do we do? Stock/flow accounting can be used to create demographic accounts using characteristics such as age, education and skills. A network perspective can be used to connect concepts such as social capital and institutions. The final accounts of the GSA are the time use of all individuals in society.
The previous chapters have shown that there is one powerful community (“the GDP multinational") which is being challenged by a heterogeneous and weakly organised community (“the Beyond-GDP cottage industry). The ever-expanding range of Beyond-GDP initiatives will not lead to success however. A new strategy is based on the GDP success story and aims to create an institutionalised community with a clear goal and coherent structure based on a common language. The chapter argues that the community should not be based on the SDGs, green accounting or the SEEA. It also argues that the community should not be based on economic terminology and theory but rather on multidisciplinary building blocks such as stock/flow accounting, networks and limits. The aim of the community is to enhance well-being and sustainability and one of its most important features is its common language: the System of Global and National Accounts (SGNA). The SGNA has four system accounts (environment, society, economy and distribution), which describe how the systems are developing. However, this does not yet tell people whether the developments are good or bad. This is left to the quality accounts.
Hypertension prevalence is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like South Africa, and migration and its concomitant urbanization are often considered to be associated with this rise. However, relatively little is known about the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and internal migration – a highly prevalent population process in LMICs. This study employed data for a group of 194 adult men and women from an original pilot dataset drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in north-east South Africa conducted in 2012. Migrants in the sample were identified, tracked and interviewed. The relationship between BP and migration distance and the number of months an individual spent away from his/her home village was estimated using robust OLS regression, controlling for a series of socioeconomic, health and behavioural characteristics. It was found that migrants who moved a longer distance and for longer durations had significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures compared with shorter-term migrants and those who remained nearby or in their home village. These associations remained robust and statistically significant when adjusting for measures of socioeconomic conditions, as well as body mass index and the number of meals consumed per day. Migration, both in terms of distance and time away, explained significant variation in the blood pressure of migrants in this typical South African context. The findings suggest the need for further studies of the nutritional and psycho-social factors associated with geographic mobility that may be important to understand rising hypertension levels in LMICs.
Maternal education plays a central role in children’s health, but there has been little research comparing the role of maternal education across health outcomes. It is important to distinguish child health outcomes from medical care outcomes. Health outcomes such as short-term morbidity and stunting are multifactorial in origin and determined by a range of factors not necessarily under a mother’s control. Mother’s education, given the necessary structural factors such as medical centres, is likely to lead to increased access to, and uptake of, medical services. Using data from the 2004–05 India Human Development Survey, eight separate logistic regressions were carried out on 11,026 women of reproductive age and their last-born child under five years of age. The results showed that maternal education had the strongest association with medical care, immunization (except polio) and iron supplementation for pregnant mothers, moderate association with underweight and weak association with short-term diseases and stunting. In addition, the study investigated whether maternal education impacts child health and medical care outcomes through the intervening roles of empowerment and human, social and cultural capital. These intervening linkages were found to be missing for short-term diseases and stunting, bolstering the argument that the influence of maternal education is limited for these outcomes.
Proactive integrated weed management (IWM) is critically needed in no-till production to reduce the intensity of selection pressure for herbicide-resistant weeds. Reducing the density of emerged weed populations and the number of larger individuals within the population at the time of herbicide application are two practical management objectives when integrating cover crops as a complementary tactic in herbicide-based production systems. We examined the following demographic questions related to the effects of alternative cover-cropping tactics following small grain harvest on preplant, burndown management of horseweed (Erigeron canadensis L.) in no-till commodity-grain production: (1) Do cover crops differentially affect E. canadensis density and size inequality at the time of herbicide exposure? (2) Which cover crop response traits are drivers of E. canadensis suppression at time of herbicide exposure? Interannual variation in growing conditions (study year) and intra-annual variation in soil fertility (low vs. high nitrogen) were the primary drivers of cover crop response traits and significantly affected E. canadensis density at the time of herbicide exposure. In comparison to the fallow control, cover crop treatments reduced E. canadensis density 52% to 86% at the time of a preplant, burndown application. Cereal rye (Secale cereale L.) alone or in combination with forage radish (Raphanus sativus L.) provided the most consistent E. canadensis suppression. Fall and spring cover crop biomass production was negatively correlated with E. canadensis density at the preplant burndown application timing. Our results also show that winter-hardy cover crops reduce the size inequality of E. canadensis populations at the time of herbicide exposure by reducing the number of large individuals within the population. Finally, we advocate for advancement in our understanding of complementarity between cover crop– and herbicide-based management tactics in no-till systems to facilitate development of proactive, herbicide-resistant management strategies.
This article investigates the physical parameters of Athenian democracy. It explores the collective-action problems that these parameters caused and settles debates about them that R. G. Osborne famously provoked. Classical Athens was ten times larger than an average Greek state. Fourth-century Athenians were ten times more numerous. These parameters significantly contributed to the success of Athenian democracy. Athens could field more combatants than almost every other Greek state. With such huge manpower reserves individual Athenians had to fight only every few years. Nevertheless, this huge population also caused collective-action problems. Attica's farmers could not grow enough to feed them. The Athenians never had adequate personnel nor recordkeeping centrally to administer so many citizens over such a large territory. Yet they found effective means at home and abroad to overcome these collective-action problems.
Tree ferns are slow-growing and long-lived components of temperate forests; however, these characteristics make determining size-age and population dynamics through mensuration approaches problematic while dendroecological approaches cannot be used. In this study, we use radiocarbon (14C) dating of Cyathea australis and Dicksonia antarctica to (1) determine their age-to-size relationships, (2) reconstruct the age distribution of tree fern species, and (3) test if predicted ages align with the ages of the co-occurring tree community and observed disturbance history. We used the best age-size models to reconstruct the population structure of tree ferns sampled in five paired rainforest and old-growth eucalypt stands and compared these to the age structure of co-occurring tree species. The species had similar growth allometry; however, C. australis grew four times faster than D. antarctica. The age class structures of tree ferns were congruent with the associated tree species and reflected known fire history and snowfall events in the region. Tree fern abundance increased with increasing time-since-fire and post canopy disturbance. The study demonstrates that 14C dating of tree ferns provides a means of investigating tree fern demographics and the role of disturbance in shaping their population structure in forests of southeast Australia.
Why is the exercise of political power highly concentrated in some polities and widely dispersed in others? We argue that one important causal factor is demographic. Populous polities are characterized by less concentrated structures of authority. To explain this relationship, we invoke two mechanisms: heterogeneity and trust. The theory is demonstrated with a wide variety of empirical measures in cross-country analyses including most sovereign states and extending back to the 19th century. The result suggests the possibility of a ubiquitous ‘law’ of politics.
Tropical bamboos persist in a wide range of light conditions and quickly respond to changes in light availability. However, the mechanisms underpinning this ability remain unknown. In order to test the hypothesis that the modular and hollow culm architecture of bamboos explains their performance in a wide range of light environments, we determined the allometric relationships of two dominant bamboo species of the upper hill dipterocarp forests of Malaysia, Gigantochloa ligulata (n = 29) and Schizostachyum grande (n = 25), via destructive sampling. We also monitored biomass turnover of bamboos and woody trees in 24 permanent plots (1.92 ha in total) over a one-year period. Compared with woody trees, bamboo culms attained 1.5 times the height and their clumps supported four times as much total leaf area at the same above-ground biomass. In addition, at a given height, bamboo clumps had six times larger crown projection area than trees while having a similar amount of total leaf area per unit of crown projection area. Finally, bamboos’ biomass turnover rate was three times higher than trees, and G. ligulata increased its specific rate of biomass increase after canopy disturbance, while trees decreased. We conclude that the unique architecture of bamboos allows them to persist under closed forest canopy light conditions and to respond to gap formation via high biomass turnover rate.