The additionality of forest conservation interventions is frequently questioned. In particular, they are often considered to be located in places where forests are not threatened, which points to the existence of location biases. Revisiting this location bias concept, we conceptually distinguish potential and effective additionality and theoretically consider how the objectives of the implementer affect the siting choice of the forest conservation interventions and their additionality. Our theoretical intuition is that the choices of the implementers are influenced by the quality of institutions. Our results show that (1) the implementer's objective and local institutions may lead the implementer to select a site with low development potential and low forest threat, and (2) the selection of a site with low development potential, which is frequently presented as a location bias, does not necessarily preclude additionality.

In West Africa, vast areas are being deforested; the remnant forest patches provide a wealth of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation potential, yet they are threatened by human activity. Forest patches <100 ha have not been widely catalogued before; we mapped forest loss of small forest patches outside of protected areas in the Guinean savannah and humid Guineo-Congolian bioclimatic regions of Togo, Benin, Nigeria and Cameroon between 2000 and 2022. Focusing on the dynamics of small patches, without considering the splitting process of larger patches, we quantified changes in their number and area and the rate and trend of forest loss. Small forest patches are widespread, yet their area and number have decreased, while the forest loss rate is increasing. Primary forest patches lost almost half of their area annually – twice as much as secondary forests, and this loss was especially pronounced across small patches (0.5 – 10 ha), suggesting deforestation preferentially occurs in the smallest patches of primary forest. If forest loss continues at the current rate, 14% of the total forest area mapped in this study will have disappeared by 2032, jeopardizing their potential to provide ecosystem services and emphasizing the need for measures to counter their deforestation.

Conflicts over resources with poorly defined property rights have fuelled both deforestation and violence in the Brazilian Amazon. However, what happens when the State enhances its ability to monitor and enforce existing environmental laws? We study the case of the list of Municípios Prioritários, a policy that allocates additional resources to verify compliance with environmental laws in municipalities with high deforestation rates. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, our findings suggest that an improvement in the ability of the State to monitor and enforce environmental laws can reduce conflicts over the appropriation of value from resources with poorly defined property rights. Consistent with existing studies, we also find that the policy led to a reduction in deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the current approach to curb violence in a region where the activity of mafias has considerably grown since the turn of the twenty-first century.

The amphibians of the Indonesian island of Sumatra are poorly known, despite it being recognized as a biodiversity hotspot. For determining conservation priorities, up-to-date knowledge of the state of amphibian diversity in Sumatra is crucial, particularly considering the high deforestation rate on the island. To address this, I compiled and analysed a comprehensive dataset for amphibians known from Sumatra, to identify knowledge gaps and assess the significance of these data for conservation on the island and, more broadly, across Indonesia. The compilation indicates there are 135 amphibian species currently recorded for Sumatra, 55% more than the number known in 1923. Approximately 44 species have been described since 2000. Associated data on larvae and calls is lacking for many species. Although 66% of the amphibians of Sumatra are categorized as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List, this may not represent the actual conservation status of these species because many of the assessments are outdated. In addition, 14% of species have not yet been evaluated. This study highlights the need for more comprehensive studies on the amphibians of Sumatra.

The concept of a forest transition – a regional shift from deforestation to forest recovery – tends to equate forest area expansion with sustainability, assuming that more forest is good for people and the environment. To promote debate and more just and ecologically sustainable outcomes during this period of intense focus on forests (such as the United Nations’ Decade on Ecological Restoration, the Trillion Trees initiative and at the United Nations’ Climate Change Conferences), we synthesize recent nuanced and integrated research to inform forest management and restoration in the future. Our results reveal nine pitfalls to assuming forest transitions and sustainability are automatically linked. The pitfalls are as follows: (1) fixating on forest quantity instead of quality; (2) masking local diversity with large-scale trends; (3) expecting U-shaped temporal trends of forest change; (4) failing to account for irreversibility; (5) framing categories and concepts as universal/neutral; (6) diverting attention from the simplification of forestlands into single-purpose conservation forests or intensive production lands; (7) neglecting social power transitions and dispossessions; (8) neglecting productivism as the hidden driving force; and (9) ignoring local agency and sentiments. We develop and illustrate these pitfalls with local- and national-level evidence from Southeast Asia and outline forward-looking recommendations for research and policy to address them. Forest transition research that neglects these pitfalls risks legitimizing unsustainable and unjust policies and programmes of forest restoration or tree planting.

We examine how agricultural subsidies may induce deforestation and interact with conservation programs by analyzing two large-scale national programs in Mexico that have existed simultaneously for more than a decade: an agricultural subsidy for livestock (PROGAN) and a program of payments for ecosystem services (PES). Looking across the entire Mexican landscape, we exploit the surprises in the timing of enrollment in PROGAN's waves, fluctuations in program payments, and the change in the value of the subsidy induced by inflation and currency fluctuations to identify the impacts of the livestock subsidy on environmental outcomes. We find that PROGAN increased municipal deforestation by 7 per cent. The deforestation effects of PROGAN were smaller in municipalities with higher concentrations of PES recipients. We suggest that livestock subsidies could be better targeted to places with low deforestation risk and high livestock productivity to maximize food production and minimize negative externalities caused by deforestation.

The Upper Guinea Forest (UGF; West Africa), a global biodiversity hotspot, has lost more than 90% of its original area since 1900, threatening endemic species such as the endangered pygmy hippopotamus (Choeropsis liberiensis). However, little is known about the proximate causes of this deforestation. We classified Sentinel-2 data using the random forest algorithm to differentiate between three main human processes (shifting agriculture, intensive agriculture or urban expansion) driving deforestation between 2000 and 2019 across the pygmy hippopotamus distribution area. Out of c. 89 600 km2 in the year 2000, 15 900 km2 (17%) of forest were lost, primarily to shifting agriculture (14 900 km2). Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia accounted for 14 900 km2 (94%) of the net area of forest lost, c. 15 times greater than deforestation in Sierra Leone and Guinea combined (953 km2). Forest loss inside protected areas is pervasive, and it is essential to prioritize conservation efforts in areas where deforestation is still low (e.g., Taï, Sapo and Gola Rainforest national parks). We suggest that the preservation of the UGF will face challenges associated with people’s demand for food and income. Continued landscape-scale planning and action to reduce deforestation are urgently needed to limit the impact of shifting agriculture on pygmy hippopotamus habitat.

The COVID-19 pandemic and government responses led to a halt in economic activity. While this reduced pollution in urban areas, its effect on deforestation in areas outside of cities is unclear. Deforestation may have decreased due to the restrictions on economic activity, but, it may have increased due to the drying up of alternative income sources. We analyzed bi-weekly data on tropical forests worldwide in relation to the dates when different countries implemented lockdown restrictions. Our analysis found that while lockdowns did reduce mobility in forest municipalities, the average effect on deforestation was not significant. However, we did observe variations in the impact of lockdowns on deforestation based on the share of lockdown-vulnerable GDP and the level of government effectiveness. These results stand across tropical countries and within Colombia. These findings highlight the importance of alternative income sources and strong state capacity for effective policies aimed at reducing deforestation.

Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures.

This article examines whether mass deforestation could be prosecuted as a crime against humanity under Article 7 of the Rome Statute. It does so in respect of the situation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon in 2019–2021, where the unbridled exploitation and destruction of the rainforest had a disastrous impact at local, regional and global levels. The article covers three main aspects. First, it explores the existing limits of international criminal law for prosecuting mass deforestation as a crime against humanity, and the contours within which criminalization would be possible. Secondly, it discusses the challenges inherent in the anthropocentric nature of the chapeau requirement of Article 7 for the criminalization of mass deforestation under that provision. Thirdly, it analyses the extent to which mass deforestation could qualify as persecution and/or an ‘other inhumane act’ under Articles 7(1)(h) and (k) of the Rome Statute.

Monkeypox (MPX) is a rare zoonotic illness, like smallpox, caused by the monkeypox virus, which is a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Chordopoxvirinae subfamily that falls under the classification of the Poxviridae family. MPX is clinically characterized by a wide variety of symptoms and signs, including fever, sore throat, headache, myalgia, lymphadenopathy, and rashes. As the world is undergoing progressive industrialization over time, there is a corresponding increase in environmental pollutants and deforestation. Previous studies have found a correlation between exposure to environmental contaminants and the incidence of MPX. Additionally, it has been hypothesized that deforestation may also have played a role in the disease’s resurgence or in its ability to spread. Habitat loss and ecological instability brought on by environmental contaminants and deforestation may increase human-infected animal interaction and hasten the spread. The likely connection should be known by health authorities and doctors, as well as government officials, to help fund further investigations and craft strategies to combat the risk of an increasing prevalence of MPX in the world, especially in densely populated underdeveloped regions of Asia and Africa, where containment of MPX poses greater challenges. In this article, we have provided an important real-world perspective and suggested future recommendations to halt the further spread of MPX to new places.

Coconut farming contributes to the livelihoods of millions of people in tropical countries but is less frequently considered as a threat to biodiversity compared to other palm commodities such as oil palm. The expansion of coconut farming alongside other smallholder agriculture in Sulawesi, Indonesia, is of potential concern as the region is a centre of species endemism. We studied bird diversity and community structure in forests, coconut palm plantations and mixed farmland in Gorontalo Province, northern Sulawesi. Forest and non-forest sites supported similar numbers of species overall, but compared to agricultural areas, forest sites had communities that were more diverse and more even (i.e. different species were present at similar abundances). We found far fewer endemic species in agricultural areas compared to forests, and the communities in palm plantations and mixed farmland sites were dominated by generalist birds, with few indicator taxa. Nevertheless, there was a higher number of endemic species in coconut palm plantations than in mixed farmland sites. These findings mirror patterns of biotic homogenization documented elsewhere in the Wallacea centre of endemism, and imply that coconut palm plantations have comparable biodiversity value to other farmland systems. Increased protection of lowland forests and improved management of coconut farms could be important for supporting the conservation of the endemic birds of Sulawesi in the long term, but this warrants further study.

Large carnivores such as the jaguar Panthera onca are particularly susceptible to population decline and local extinction as a result of habitat loss. Here we report on the long-term monitoring of a local jaguar population in a mixed land-use area in the eastern lowlands of Bolivia from March 2017 to December 2019. We recorded 15 jaguar individuals and four reproduction events (five offspring from three females), suggesting that our study area harbours a resident breeding population. Seven iterations of spatially explicit capture–recapture models provided density estimates of 1.32–3.57 jaguars per 100 km2. Jaguar capture rates were highest in forested areas, with few to no jaguar captures in pastures used for livestock. Massive deforestation after the survey period reduced the proportion of dense forest cover by 33%, shrinking the availability of suitable jaguar habitat and placing the resident jaguar population at risk. We use the jaguar as an indicator species to highlight the threat of habitat destruction in the Chiquitano region and we emphasize the importance of intact forest patches for jaguar conservation.