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Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
This study aims to investigate the prevalence and genotype distribution of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among men with different sexual orientations with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in China. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2016–2017 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province. Convenient sampling was used to recruit male participants from HIV voluntary counselling and testing clinics and Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A face-to-face questionnaire interview was administered and an anal-canal swab was collected for HPV genotyping. A total of 160 HIV-positive and 113 HIV-negative men participated in the study. The prevalence of any type HPV was 30.6% for heterosexual men, 74.1% for homosexual and 63.6% for bisexual men among HIV-positive participants, while the prevalence was 8.3%, 29.2% and 23.8% respectively among HIV-negatives. The most prevalent genotypes were HPV-58 (16.9%), HPV-6 (15.6%) and HPV-11 (15.0%) among HIV-positive men, and were HPV-16 (4.4%), HPV-52 (4.4%) and HPV-6 (3.5%) among HIV-negative men. Having ever had haemorrhoids and having ever seen blood on tissue after defaecation was associated with HPV infection. One-fourth of the HPV infections in this study population can be covered by the quadrivalent vaccine in market. The highly prevalent anal HPV infection among men especially HIV-infected men calls for close observation and further investigation for anal cancer prevention.
Alanyl-glutamine (Ala-Gln), a highly soluble and stable glutamine dipeptide, is known to improve gut integrity and function. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether dietary Ala-Gln supplementation could improve growth performance, intestinal development and digestive-absorption function in weaned piglets. A total of 100 purebred Yorkshire piglets weaned at 21 days of age were assigned randomly to four dietary treatment groups and fed a basal diet (control group) or a basal diet containing 0.15%, 0.30% and 0.45% Ala-Gln, respectively. Compared with the control group, piglets fed the Ala-Gln diets had higher average daily gain and lower feed : gain and diarrhea rate (P < 0.05). Moreover, dietary Ala-Gln supplementation increased villous height and villous height : crypt depth ratio in duodenum and jejunum (P < 0.05), as well as the activities of maltase and lysozyme in jejunum mucosa (P < 0.05). In addition, a decrease in serum diamine oxidase activity and crypt depth in duodenum and jejunum was observed in piglets fed the Ala-Gln diets (P < 0.05). Serum cytosolic phospholipase A2 (cPLA2) concentration and gene expression of cPLA2, Na+-dependent glucose transporter 1, glucose transporter 2 and peptide transporter 1 in jejunum were increased by feeding Ala-Gln diets relative to control diet (P < 0.05). These results indicated that feeding Ala-Gln diet has beneficial effects on the growth performance of weaned piglets, which associated with maintaining intestinal morphology and digestive-absorption function.
The association between opportunistic infection (OI) and anaemia among HIV-infected patients remains to be studied. We investigated the prevalence and risk factors of anaemia in hospitalised HIV-infected patients to reveal the association between OI and anaemia. We conducted a retrospective study of HIV-positive hospitalised patients from June 2016 to December 2017 in Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University. Patients’ information on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were carefully collected. The comparison of anaemia prevalence between groups was conducted with χ2 test. A logistic regression model was carried out to analyse the predictors of anaemia. The total prevalence of anaemia in hospitalised HIV-infected patients was 55.15%. The prevalence of mild, moderate and severe anaemia was 41.42%, 11.08% and 2.64%, respectively. Predictors independently associated with anaemia were: CD4 counts <50 cells/μl (odds ratio (OR): 6.376, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.916–21.215, P = 0.003), CD4 counts 50–199 cells/μl (OR: 6.303, 95% CI = 1.874–21.203, P = 0.003), co-infection with tuberculosis (TB) (OR: 2.703, 95% CI = 1.349–5.414, P = 0.005) or Penicillium marneffei (PM) (OR: 7.162, 95% CI = 3.147–15.299, P < 0.001). In Fujian, China, more than half inpatients with HIV were anaemic, but severe anaemia is infrequent. Lower CD4 counts, co-infection with TB or PM were independent risk factors for anaemia. Chinese HIV patients especially with TB, PM infection and low CD4 level should be routinely detected for anaemia to improve therapy.
Cognition is multidimensional, and each domain plays a unique and crucial part in successful daily life engagement. However, less attention has been paid to multi-domain cognitive health for the elderly, and the role of lifestyle factors in each domain remains unclear.
We conducted a cross-sectional study of 3,230 older adults aged 60+ years in Xiamen, China, in 2016. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was used to measure general cognition and six specific sub-domains. To account for educational effects, we adjusted the MoCA score and divided respondents into three education-specific groups (low, moderate, and high education groups with ≤5, 6~8, and ≥9 years of education, respectively). A series of proportional odds models were used to detect the associations between two categories of lifestyle factors – substance abuse (cigarette and alcohol) and leisure activity (TV watching, reading, smartphone use, social activity, and exercise) – and general cognition and the six sub-domains in those three groups.
Among the 3,230 respondents, 2,617 eligible participants were included with a mean age of 69.05 ± 7.07 years. Previous or current smoking/drinking was not associated with MoCA scores in the whole population, but unexpectedly, the ex-smokers in the low education group performed better in general cognition (OR = 2.22) and attention (OR = 2.05) than their never-smoking counterparts. Modest TV watching, reading, and smartphone use also contributed to better cognition among elderly participants in the low education group. For the highly educated elderly, comparatively longer reading (>3.5 hours/week) was inversely associated with general cognition (OR = 0.53), memory (OR = 0.59), and language (OR = 0.54), while adequate exercise (5~7 days/week) was positively related to these factors with OR = 1.48, OR = 1.49, and OR = 1.53, respectively. For the moderately educated elderly, only modest reading was significantly beneficial.
Lifestyle factors play different roles in multidimensional cognitive health in different educational groups, indicating that individual intervention strategies should be designed according to specific educational groups and different cognitive sub-domains.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the leading causes of death and morbidity associated with liver disease. Risk factors identified for the transmission of HCV include contaminated blood products, intravenous drug use, body piercing, an infected mother at birth, sexual activity, and dental therapy, among others. However, the exact diversity of the HCV genotype and genetic variation among patients with low-risk factors is still unknown. In this study, we briefly described and analysed the genotype distribution and genetic variation of HCV infections with low-risk factors using molecular biology techniques. The results suggested that genotype 1b was predominant, followed by genotypes 2a and 1a. Genetic variations in the 5′ UTR sequences of HCV were identified, including point mutations, deletions, and insertions. The frequency of genetic variations in 1b was higher than in 2a. This study provides considerable value for the prevention and treatment of liver disease caused by HCV among patients with low-risk factors and for the development of HCV diagnostic reagents and vaccines.
Diarrhea is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and the incidence of diarrhea in the world has changed little over the past four decades. To assess the prevalence of and healthcare practices for diarrhea, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Pudong, Shanghai, China. In October 2014, a total of 5324 community residents were interviewed. Respondents were asked if they had experienced diarrhea (defined as ⩾3 passages of watery, loose, bloody, or mucoid stools within a 24-h period) in the previous month prior to the interview. The monthly prevalence of diarrhea was 4·1% (95% CI: 3·3–4·8), corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·54 episodes per person-year. The proportion of individuals with diarrhea who sought healthcare was 21·2% (95% CI: 13·4–29·0). Diarrhea continues to impose a considerable burden on the community and healthcare system in Pudong. Young age and travel were identified as predictors of increased diarrhea occurrence.
A highly efficient parallelization scheme of direct numerical simulation (DNS) for two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection is presented. By introducing the parallel diagonal dominant (PDD) algorithm to solve the pressure Poisson equation and adjusting the domain decomposition accordingly, all-to-all communication as the usual obstacle to parallel computing can be eliminated. Excellent strong scaling and weak scaling for the parallel efficiency are achieved. Numerical results show that very complex structures in flow exist at very high Ra numbers. The required high resolution both in space and in time can be obtained by the present method at low parallel overhead.
An experimental investigation into laser ablation of secondary explosives, cyclotetramethylene tetranitramine (HMX), has been carried out by using a solid-state laser at the wavelength of 1064 nm. The ion particles of decomposition were detected by using a time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Possible attributions of both negative ions and positive ions were obtained. Some obvious peaks were found at m/z = 18, 28, 46, 60, and 106, corresponding to H2O, CO/N2/H2CN, NO2, CH2NO2/N2O2, and N(NO2)2/CH2(NO2)2, respectively. According to the distribution of the particles, three possible pathways were proposed to explain the process of particles. The results may shed some light on the possible decomposition mechanism of HMX under laser initiation.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of using Multiplex 3, a hand-held canopy fluorescence sensor, to determine rice nitrogen (N) status at different growth stages. In 2013, a paddy rice field experiment with five N fertilizer treatments and two varieties was conducted in Northeast China. Field samples and fluorescence data were collected simultaneously at the panicle initiation (PI), stem elongation (SE), and heading (HE) stages. Four N status indicators, leaf N concentration (LNC), plant N concentration (PNC), plant N uptake (PNU) and N nutrition index (NNI), were determined. The preliminary results indicated that different N application rates significantly affected most of the fluorescence variables, especially the simple fluorescence ratios (SFR_G, SFR_R), flavonoid (FLAV), and N balance indices (NBI_G, NBI_R). These variables were highly correlated with N status indicators. More studies are needed to further evaluate the accuracy of rice N status diagnosis using fluorescence sensing at different growth stages.
Pig farmers and veterinarians have high prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) due to the occupational livestock exposure, while few reported this association on slaughterhouse workers. We conducted this cross-sectional study to explore the phenotypic and molecular characteristics of S. aureus and MRSA in slaughterhouse pig-related workers and control workers in Guangdong Province, China. Participants were interviewed and provided two nasal swabs. Swabs were tested for S. aureus, and isolates were further tested for antimicrobial susceptibility, virulence genes and multi-locus sequence typing. Compared with control workers, pig-related workers have significantly higher prevalence of MRSA carriage (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) 3·70, 95% CI 1·63–8·40). The proportions of MRSA resistant to clindamycin, erythromycin, tetracycline or chloromycetin were significantly higher in pig-related workers than in control workers. The predominant phenotypes of S. aureus were resistant to penicillin, clindamycin, erythromycin and tetracycline. Three MRSA CC9 isolates with livestock-associated characteristics (resistance to tetracycline and absence of immune evasion cluster (IEC) genes) were detected in pig-related workers but not in control workers. For human-associated CCs (CC7, CC59, CC6, and CC188), there was no significant difference in IEC profile or antimicrobial resistance between the groups. These findings reveal that there may be a potential risk for livestock-to-human transmission of LA-MRSA and human-to-human transmission of human-associated MRSA.
This study aimed to evaluate subjective symptom changes in obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome patients following nasal surgery, and to explore treatment efficacy in improving patient quality of life.
Patients with nasal blockage accompanied by habitual snoring were stratified into four groups. Their subjective symptoms were evaluated before and after nasal surgery.
There was a significant decrease in the nasal blockage symptom visual analogue scale, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Snore Outcomes Survey, Spouse/Bed Partners Survey and Sino-Nasal Outcome Test 20 scores for all patients at six months after surgery. The visual analogue scale score for subjective olfactory function was significantly improved in the severe obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome patient group.
Nasal surgery can effectively improve the subjective symptoms of patients with simple snoring accompanied by nasal blockage and of patients with obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome, thus improving their quality of life.
EVA foams, like all other polymers, also exhibit strain-rate effects and hysteresis. However, currently available approaches for predicting the mechanical response of polymeric foam subjected to an arbitrarily imposed loading history and strain-rate effect are highly limited. Especially, the strain rates in the intermediate rate domain (between 100 and 102 s–1) are extremely difficult to study. The use of data generated through the drop tower technique for implementation in constitutive equations or numerical models has not been considered in past studies. In this study, an experiment including a quasi-static compression test and drop impact tests with a high speed camera was conducted. An inverse analysis technique combined with a finite element model for material parameter identification was developed to determine the stress–strain behavior of foam at different specific strain rates. It was used in this study to simulate multiple loading and unloading cycles on foam specimens, and the results were compared with experimental measurements.
A new death line for radio pulsars is presented in this paper within the framework of vacuum gap and inverse Compton scattering (ICS) induced pair production process. The 8.5s period pulsar PSR J2144-3933 is located above the death line without any additional assumptions. An “appearance line” instead of the so-called “Hubble line”, is also presented in this paper. Both of those two lines fit observations well.
Peripheral blood viral load is an important indicator of viral production and clearance. Previous studies have suggested that viral load might predict the rate of decrease in CD4+ cell count and progression to AIDS and death. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends in HIV-1 viral load in southeast China. Among inpatients newly diagnosed with HIV infection, we found that viral load has increased over the past decade from 4·20 log10 copies/ml in 2002 to 6·61 log10 copies/ml in 2014, with a mean increase of 0·19 log10 copies/ml each year. However, the CD4+ cell count was stable and insensitive to changes in viral load. Thus, increasing viral load appears to be an emerging trend in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients.
With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. Such risk is generated by the potential inaccuracy and inappropriate use of models in business applications, which can lead to substantial financial losses and reputational damage. In this paper, we deal with the management and measurement of model risk. First, a model risk framework is developed, adapting concepts such as risk appetite, monitoring, and mitigation to the particular case of model risk. The usefulness of such a framework for preventing losses associated with model risk is demonstrated through case studies. Second, we investigate the ways in which different ways of using and perceiving models within an organisation both lead to different model risks. We identify four distinct model cultures and argue that in conditions of deep model uncertainty, each of those cultures makes a valuable contribution to model risk governance. Thus, the space of legitimate challenges to models is expanded, such that, in addition to a technical critique, operational and commercial concerns are also addressed. Third, we discuss through the examples of proxy modelling, longevity risk, and investment advice, common methods and challenges for quantifying model risk. Difficulties arise in mapping model errors to actual financial impact. In the case of irreducible model uncertainty, it is necessary to employ a variety of measurement approaches, based on statistical inference, fitting multiple models, and stress and scenario analysis.
Nitrogen (N) supply is essential for achieving high grain yield in maize production, but excessive N application can lead to lodging risks and potential yield loss. The main objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of ethephon application under different N fertilizer rates in reducing maize lodging. Field experiments were conducted to determine the interactive effects of ethephon (0 and 180 g/ha) and N rate (0, 75, 150 and 225 kg N/ha) on the morphological and chemical characteristics of basal internode and yield across two summer maize-growing seasons (2011/12) in Wuqiao of the North China Plain. Findings showed that ethephon significantly increased the maximum diameter of the 7th to 14th internodes, and decreased the internode lengths, which led to a decrease in plant and ear heights under different N rates. Significant ethephon × N interaction effects were observed on the diameter and length of internode, dry weight per unit internode length and breaking resistance. Ethephon significantly increased N, cellulose and hemicellulose contents of the basal internode, but cellulose and hemicellulose contents decreased as the rate of N application increased. Internode diameter, dry weight per unit internode length, and N content of the basal internode were significantly positively correlated with breaking resistance. Ethephon significantly increased grain yield and harvest index in 2011, but not in 2012. Grain yield and above-ground biomass were increased with increasing N application in both growing seasons, showing linear and quadratic responses. These results suggested that ethephon could increase stalk strength by improving the morphological and chemical characteristics of the basal internode, and maintain high yield and biomass under high N rates.
Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (MDRPA) infections are major threats to healthcare-associated infection control and the intrinsic molecular mechanisms of MDRPA are also unclear. We examined 348 isolates of P. aeruginosa, including 188 MDRPA and 160 non-MDRPA, obtained from five tertiary-care hospitals in Guangzhou, China. Significant correlations were found between gene/enzyme carriage and increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (P < 0·01). gyrA mutation, OprD loss and metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) presence were identified as crucial molecular risk factors for MDRPA acquisition by a combination of univariate logistic regression and a multifactor dimensionality reduction approach. The MDRPA rate was also elevated with the increase in positive numbers of those three determinants (P < 0·001). Thus, gyrA mutation, OprD loss and MBL presence may serve as predictors for early screening of MDRPA infections in clinical settings.
We aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of HSV-2 discordance and concordance in HIV-1-discordant couples. This study used the baseline data from a cohort study of HIV-1-discordant couples in Dehong prefecture of Yunnan province, China. Of 954 participating couples, 42·4% were affected by HSV-2, of which 20·4% were HSV-2-concordant positive, 7·6% were HSV-2-discordant where the male was HSV-2 positive, and 14·4% were HSV-2 discordant where the female was HSV-2 positive. Compared to HSV-2-negative concordance, HSV-2 discordance with an HSV-2-positive male spouse was significantly associated with characteristics of the male spouse, including Han ethnicity and being in a second marriage. HSV-2 discordance with an HSV-2-positive female spouse was significantly associated with characteristics of the female spouse, including Han ethnicity, having engaged in commercial sex, having a sexual relationship of <3 years and being HIV-1 infected. Compared to HSV-2 discordance, HSV-2-positive concordance was significantly associated with an education level of middle school or higher for both spouses, a sexual relationship of ⩾3 years, more frequent sex and having an HIV-1-infected male spouse. The findings highlight the need for HSV-2 prevention and treatment efforts to reduce HSV-2 transmission in this population, and emphasize the importance of implementing prevention interventions early in couples' relationships.