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The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.
While there has been much research on welfare exit and entry into employment, less research has looked at return to government assistance. Applying survival analysis on data from a national government assistance programme in Singapore, we found two important factors of welfare return to which activation programmes need to pay greater attention. First, return was more likely if former beneficiaries accumulated a higher number of types of arrears rather than higher dollar values of arrears. This new finding contributes to the emerging literature on bandwidth tax, and suggests the importance of designing programmes that relieve mental accounting due to debt and poverty. Second, return was more likely if respondents had an infant or toddler child. This points to the importance of a range of support policies including affordable and accessible childcare, exemption from work requirement in receipt of welfare, and family leave for low-wage workers.
The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed serious challenges. It is vitally important to further clarify the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak for future study and prevention and control measures. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial−temporal analysis were performed based on COVID-19 cases from 21 January 2020 to 1 March 2020 in Shandong Province, and close contacts were traced to construct transmission chains. A total of 758 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported in Shandong. The sex ratio was 1.27: 1 (M: F) and the median age was 42 (interquartile range: 32–55). The high-risk clusters were identified in the central, eastern and southern regions of Shandong from 25 January 2020 to 10 February 2020. We rebuilt 54 transmission chains involving 209 cases, of which 52.2% were family clusters, and three widespread infection chains were elaborated, occurring in Jining, Zaozhuang and Liaocheng, respectively. The geographical and temporal disparity may alert public health agencies to implement specific measures in regions with different risk, and should attach importance on how to avoid household and community transmission.
Porphyromonas gingivalis has been linked to the development and progression of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and is considered to be a high-risk factor for ESCC. Currently, the commonly used methods for P. gingivalis detection are culture or DNA extraction-based, which are either time and labour intensive especially for high-throughput applications. We aimed to establish and evaluate a rapid and sensitive direct quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) protocol for the detection of P. gingivalis without DNA extraction which is suitable for large-scale epidemiological studies. Paired gingival swab samples from 192 subjects undergoing general medical examinations were analysed using two direct and one extraction-based qPCR assays for P. gingivalis. Tris-EDTA buffer-based direct qPCR (TE-direct qPCR), lysis-based direct qPCR (lysis-direct qPCR) and DNA extraction-based qPCR (kit-qPCR) were used, respectively, in 192, 132 and 60 of these samples for quantification of P. gingivalis. The sensitivity and specificity of TE-direct qPCR was 95.24% and 100% compared with lysis-direct qPCR, which was 100% and 97.30% when compared with kit-qPCR; TE-direct qPCR had an almost perfect agreement with lysis-direct qPCR (κ = 0.954) and kit-qPCR (κ = 0.965). Moreover, the assay time used for TE-direct qPCR was 1.5 h. In conclusion, the TE-direct qPCR assay is a simple and efficient method for the quantification of oral P. gingivalis and showed high sensitivity and specificity compared with routine qPCR.
This report is on the synthesis by electrospinning of multiferroic core-shell nanofibers of strontium hexaferrite and lead zirconate titanate or barium titanate and studies on magneto-electric (ME) coupling. Fibers with well-defined core–shell structures showed the order parameters in agreement with values for nanostructures. The strength of ME coupling measured by the magnetic field-induced polarization showed the fractional change in the remnant polarization as high as 21%. The ME voltage coefficient in H-assembled films showed the strong ME response for the zero magnetic bias field. Follow-up studies and potential avenues for enhancing the strength of ME coupling in the core–shell nanofibers are discussed.
This paper presents Parallel World Framework as a solution for simulations of complex systems within a time-varying knowledge graph and its application to the electric grid of Jurong Island in Singapore. The underlying modeling system is based on the Semantic Web Stack. Its linked data layer is described by means of ontologies, which span multiple domains. The framework is designed to allow what-if scenarios to be simulated generically, even for complex, inter-linked, cross-domain applications, as well as conducting multi-scale optimizations of complex superstructures within the system. Parallel world containers, introduced by the framework, ensure data separation and versioning of structures crossing various domain boundaries. Separation of operations, belonging to a particular version of the world, is taken care of by a scenario agent. It encapsulates functionality of operations on data and acts as a parallel world proxy to all of the other agents operating on the knowledge graph. Electric network optimization for carbon tax is demonstrated as a use case. The framework allows to model and evaluate electrical networks corresponding to set carbon tax values by retrofitting different types of power generators and optimizing the grid accordingly. The use case shows the possibility of using this solution as a tool for CO2 reduction modeling and planning at scale due to its distributed architecture.
To examine the relationship between the therapeutic effect of intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion and histone acetylation in refractory sudden sensorineural hearing loss.
Thirty-four refractory sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients were enrolled and treated with intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion. Pure tone average, acetylated histone H3, acetylated histone H4 and histone deacetylase 2 (HDAC2) were measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells before and after intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion. Sixteen healthy volunteers were recruited to obtain normal reference values.
Pure tone average in sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients improved from 84.14 ± 13.54 dB to 73.56 ± 18.45 dB after intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion. Up-regulations in HDAC2 protein level, and down-regulations in histone H3 and H4 acetylation were observed in the intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion sensitive group (pure tone average gain of 15 dB or more), while no significant changes were observed in the intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion insensitive group (pure tone average gain of less than 15 dB).
Intratympanic methylprednisolone perfusion can improve hearing in a considerable number of refractory sudden sensorineural hearing loss patients. The therapeutic effect is closely related to reduced histone acetylation.
Hunger relief agencies have a limited capacity to monitor the nutritional quality of their food. Validated measures of food environments, such as the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010), are challenging to use due to their time intensity and requirement for precise nutrient information. A previous study used out-of-sample predictions to demonstrate that an alternative measure correlated well with the HEI-2010. The present study revised the Food Assortment Scoring Tool (FAST) to facilitate implementation and tested the tool’s performance in a real-world food pantry setting.
We developed a FAST measure with thirteen scored categories and thirty-one sub-categories. FAST scores were generated by sorting and weighing foods in categories, multiplying each category’s weight share by a healthfulness parameter and summing the categories (range 0–100). FAST was implemented by recording all food products moved over five days. Researchers collected FAST and HEI-2010 scores for food availability and foods selected by clients, to calculate correlations.
Five food pantries in greater Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Food carts of sixty food pantry clients.
The thirteen-category FAST correlated well with the HEI-2010 in prediction models (r = 0·68). FAST scores averaged 61·5 for food products moved, 63·8 for availability and 62·5 for client carts. As implemented in the real world, FAST demonstrated good correlation with the HEI-2010 (r = 0·66).
The FAST is a flexible, valid tool to monitor the nutritional quality of food in pantries. Future studies are needed to test its use in monitoring improvements in food pantry nutritional quality over time.
Projected changes to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnostic criteria in the upcoming International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11 may affect the prevalence and severity of identified cases. This study examined differences in rates, severity, and overlap of diagnoses using ICD-10 and ICD-11 PTSD diagnostic criteria during consecutive assessments of recent survivors of traumatic events.
The study sample comprised 3863 survivors of traumatic events, evaluated in 11 longitudinal studies of PTSD. ICD-10 and ICD-11 diagnostic rules were applied to the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) to derive ICD-10 and ICD-11 diagnoses at different time intervals between trauma occurrence and 15 months.
The ICD-11 criteria identified fewer cases than the ICD-10 across assessment intervals (range −47.09% to −57.14%). Over 97% of ICD-11 PTSD cases met concurrent ICD-10 PTSD criteria. PTSD symptom severity of individuals identified by the ICD-11 criteria (CAPS total scores) was 31.38–36.49% higher than those identified by ICD-10 criteria alone. The latter, however, had CAPS scores indicative of moderate PTSD. ICD-11 was associated with similar or higher rates of comorbid mood and anxiety disorders. Individuals identified by either ICD-10 or ICD-11 shortly after traumatic events had similar longitudinal course.
This study indicates that significantly fewer individuals would be diagnosed with PTSD using the proposed ICD-11 criteria. Though ICD-11 criteria identify more severe cases, those meeting ICD-10 but not ICD-11 criteria remain in the moderate range of PTSD symptoms. Use of ICD-11 criteria will have critical implications for case identification in clinical practice, national reporting, and research.
A free standing 2D PS colloidal crystal with Au nanoshells/hydrogel composite film (CAuHCF) was fabricated by embedding a 2D PS colloidal crystal with Au nanoshells into a polyacrylic acid (PAA) hydrogel film. This CAuHCF can act as a visualized sensor with high diffraction intensity. The 2D PS colloidal crystal with Au nanoshells was prepared by depositing an Au layer on PS colloidal crystal obtained by interfacial self-assembly. The diffraction intensity of the CAuHCF was increased by about 30-fold than that of traditional 2D PS colloidal crystal/hydrogel composite film on transparent substrate due to large scattering cross section of Au shell. Such sensors based Au nanoshells array with the simple preparation process and the strong diffraction signal are promising ones for practical applications in visual detection. Additionally, with the simple preparation process and high diffraction intensity, other visualized sensors based different hydrogel matrix and the 2D PS colloidal crystal with Au nanoshells could be synthesized for monitoring various analysts.
Understanding film initiation and growth mechanisms at the atomic level is crucial to obtain high-quality nonpolar ZnO films. Using the advanced reactive force field-based molecular dynamics method, we theoretically studied the effect of substrate temperature (350–950 K) on the quality, layer develop mechanism and defect formation of ZnO films. Investigation of the energy, radial distribution function, layer coverage, sputtering and injecting phenomena indicated that the present films grown at 500–600 K possessed the optimal quality. Further investigation of the growth condition, instant film profiles, interfacial microstructure evolutions and layered snapshots revealed that, addition of atoms on newly formed localized films can induce some partially bonded or extruded atoms out of the film plane. Further adherence of depositing atoms to these unstable or extruded atoms induces the initiation and growth of a new layer.
Grape proanthocyanidins (GPCs) are a family of naturally derived polyphenols that have aroused interest in the poultry industry due to their versatile role in animal health. This study was conducted to investigate the potential benefits and appropriate dosages of GPCs on growth performance, jejunum morphology, plasma antioxidant capacity and the biochemical indices of broiler chicks. A total of 280 newly hatched male Cobb 500 broiler chicks were randomly allocated into four treatments of seven replicates each, and were fed a wheat–soybean meal-type diet with or without (control group), 7.5, 15 or 30 mg/kg of GPCs. Results show that dietary GPCs decrease the feed conversion ratio and average daily gain from day 21 to day 42, increase breast muscle yield by day 42 and improve jejunum morphology between day 21 and day 42. Chicks fed 7.5 and 15 mg/kg of GPCs show increased breast muscle yield and exhibit improved jejunum morphologies than birds in the control group. Dietary GPCs fed at a level of 15 mg/kg markedly increased total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD) activity between day 21 and day 42, whereas a supplement of GPCs at 7.5 mg/kg significantly increased T-SOD activity and decreased lipid peroxidation malondialdehyde content by day 42. A supplement of 30 mg/kg of GPCs has no effect on antioxidant status but adversely affects the blood biochemical indices, as evidenced by increased creatinine content, increased alkaline phosphatase by day 21 and increased alanine aminotransferase by day 42 in plasma. GPC levels caused quadratic effect on growth, jejunum morphology and plasma antioxidant capacity. The predicted optimal GPC levels for best plasma antioxidant capacity at 42 days was 13 to 15 mg/kg, for best feed efficiency during grower phase was 16 mg/kg, for best jejunum morphology at 42 days was 17 mg/kg. In conclusion, GPCs (fed at a level of 13 to 17 mg/kg) have the potential to be a promising feed additive for broiler chicks.
With the aid of the Green's function method and complex function method, the scattering problem of SH-wave by a cylindrical inclusion and a semi-cylindrical hollow in the bi-material half space is considered to obtain the steady state response. Firstly, by the means of the image method, the essential solution of displacement field as well as Green's function is constructed which satisfies the stress free on the horizontal boundary in a right-angle space including a cylindrical inclusion and a semi-cylindrical hollow and bearing a harmonic out-plane line source force at any point on the vertical boundary. Secondly, the bi-material half space is divided into two parts along the vertical interface, and the first kind of Fredholm integral equations containing undetermined anti-plane forces at the linking section is established by “the conjunction method” and “the crack-division method”, the integral equations are reduced to the algebraic equations consisting of finite items by effective truncation. Finally, dynamic stress concentration factor around the edge of cylindrical inclusion and dynamic stress intensity factor at crack tip are calculated, and the influences of effect of interface and different combination of material parameters, etc. on dynamic stress concentration factor and dynamic stress intensity factor are discussed.
Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) are sensitive to rare gamma-ray photons, buried in the background of charged cosmic-ray (CR) particles, the flux of which is several orders of magnitude greater. The ability to separate gamma rays from CR particles is important, as it is directly related to the sensitivity of the instrument. This gamma-ray/CR-particle classification problem in IACT data analysis can be treated with the rapidly-advancing machine learning algorithms, which have the potential to outperform the traditional box-cut methods on image parameters. We present preliminary results of a precise classification of a small set of muon events using a convolutional neural networks model with the raw images as input features. We also show the possibility of using the convolutional neural networks model for regression problems, such as the radius and brightness measurement of muon events, which can be used to calibrate the throughput efficiency of IACTs.
To demonstrate the feasibility of applying the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010) to the hunger relief setting, specifically by assessing the nutritional quality of foods ordered by food shelves (front-line food provider) from food banks (warehouse of foods).
This Healthy FOOD (Feedback On Ordering Decisions) observational study used electronic invoices detailing orders made by 269 food shelves in 2013 and analysed in 2015 from two large Minnesota, USA food banks to generate HEI-2010 scores. Initial development and processing procedures are described.
The average total HEI-2010 score for the 269 food shelves was 62·7 out of 100 with a range from 28 to 82. Mean component scores for total protein foods, total vegetables, fatty acids, and seafood and plant proteins were the highest. Mean component score for whole grains was the lowest followed by dairy, total fruits, refined grains and sodium. Food shelves located in micropolitan areas and the largest food shelves had the highest HEI-2010 scores. Town/rural and smaller food shelves had the lowest scores. Monthly and seasonal differences in scores were detected. Limitations to this approach are identified.
Calculating HEI-2010 for food shelves using electronic invoice data is novel and feasible, albeit with limitations. HEI-2010 scores for 2013 identify room for improvement in nearly all food shelves, especially the smallest agencies. The utility of providing HEI-2010 scores to decision makers in the hunger relief setting is an issue requiring urgent study.
A two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation is carried out to study the focusing effects of the long proton beam propagating in background plasmas. It is found that the smooth beam, with the long length and the small density gradient profile, is focused to high density. The sharp beam, with long length and the large density gradient profile, is modulated into many high density and periodic short beam pulses due to the wakefield induced by the beam. In addition, increasing the plasma density and adopting the non-uniform plasmas are the effective ways to reduce the wakefield.
The protective effects of dietary pyrroloquinoline quinone disodium (PQQ.Na2) supplementation against oxidized sunflower oil-induced oxidative stress and liver injury in laying hens were examined. Three hundred and sixty 53-week-old Hy-Line Gray laying hens were randomly allocated into one of the five dietary treatments. The treatments included: (1) a diet containing 2% fresh sunflower oil; (2) a diet containing 2% thermally oxidized sunflower oil; (3) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 100 mg/kg of added vitamin E; (4) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 0.08 mg/kg of PQQ.Na2; and (5) an oxidized sunflower oil diet with 0.12 mg/kg of PQQ.Na2. Birds fed the oxidized sunflower oil diet showed a lower feed intake compared to birds fed the fresh oil diet or oxidized oil diet supplemented with vitamin E (P=0.009). Exposure to oxidized sunflower oil increased plasma malondialdehyde (P<0.001), hepatic reactive oxygen species (P<0.05) and carbonyl group levels (P<0.001), but decreased plasma glutathione levels (P=0.006) in laying hens. These unfavorable changes induced by the oxidized sunflower oil diet were modulated by dietary vitamin E or PQQ.Na2 supplementation to levels comparable to the fresh oil group. Dietary supplementation with PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E increased the activities of total superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase in plasma and the liver, when compared with the oxidized sunflower oil group (P<0.05). PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E diminished the oxidized sunflower oil diet induced elevation of liver weight (P=0.026), liver to BW ratio (P=0.001) and plasma activities of alanine aminotransferase (P=0.001) and aspartate aminotransferase (P<0.001) and maintained these indices at the similar levels to the fresh oil diet. Furthermore, oxidized sunflower oil increased hepatic DNA tail length (P<0.05) and tail moment (P<0.05) compared with the fresh oil group. Dietary supplementation of PQQ.Na2 or vitamin E decreased the oxidized oil diet induced DNA tail length and tail moment to the basal levels in fresh oil diet. These results indicate that PQQ.Na2 is a potential antioxidant and is as effective against oxidized oil-related liver injury in laying hens as vitamin E. The protective effects of PQQ.Na2 against liver damage induced by oxidized oil may be partially due to its role in the scavenging of free radicals, inhibiting of lipid peroxidation and enhancing of antioxidant defense systems.
To assess the preparedness of the US mass fatality infrastructure, we developed and tested metrics for 3 components of preparedness: organizational, operational, and resource sharing networks.
In 2014, data were collected from 5 response sectors: medical examiners and coroners, the death care industry, health departments, faith-based organizations, and offices of emergency management. Scores were calculated within and across sectors and a weighted score was developed for the infrastructure.
A total of 879 respondents reported highly variable organizational capabilities: 15% had responded to a mass fatality incident (MFI); 42% reported staff trained for an MFI, but only 27% for an MFI involving hazardous contaminants. Respondents estimated that 75% of their staff would be willing and able to respond, but only 53% if contaminants were involved. Most perceived their organization as somewhat prepared, but 13% indicated “not at all.” Operational capability scores ranged from 33% (death care industry) to 77% (offices of emergency management). Network capability analysis found that only 42% of possible reciprocal relationships between resource-sharing partners were present. The cross-sector composite score was 51%; that is, half the key capabilities for preparedness were in place.
The sectors in the US mass fatality infrastructure report suboptimal capability to respond. National leadership is needed to ensure sector-specific and infrastructure-wide preparedness for a large-scale MFI. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:87–97)
This chapter introduces novel approaches in heterogeneous networks (HetNets) where both large and small cells are deployed in a mixed manner to satisfy the increasing traffic demand and, at the same time, to improve the energy efficiency (EE) of future cellular networks.
In recent years, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of mobile handsets, in particular smart phones, supporting a wide range of applications, such as image and video transfer, cloud services, and cloud storage. The average smart phone usage rate has nearly been tripled and the overall amount of mobile data traffic demand grew 2.3 times in 2011 . Furthermore, the amount of mobile data traffic is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years; recent forecasts are expecting the data traffic to increase more than 500 times in the next ten years [2, 3]. The current cellular systems would not be able to cope with the expected traffic demand increase. This huge amount of traffic demand leads to the need for further densification of the networks, for example in hotspot areas where traffic demand is concentrated as seen in Figure 18.1.
However, traffic load varies from time to time because of the typical night–day behavior due to the users’ daily activities in offices and being back to residential areas during the night . In the current cellular networks, the power consumption of the radio access network (RAN) does not effectively scale with the traffic variations as shown in Figure 18.2. The traffic variations create the opportunities for the design of an adaptive network paradigm that can dynamically scale its power consumption according to the traffic variations.
Generally speaking, the power consumption of the RAN scales with the number of deployed base stations (BSs), each with offset power consumption. In cellular networks, only 10% of the overall power consumption stems from the user equipments (UEs) whereas nearly 90% of power consumption is incurred by the operator networks . Figure 18.3 gives an idea on how the power consumption is distributed across the different parts of a typical cellular network. It is obvious that the RAN and the operation of data centers that provide computations, storage, applications, and data transfer are the most energy intensive parts of the entire network.