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Statistical models are commonly employed in the estimation of influenza-associated excess mortality that, due to various reasons, is often underestimated by laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths reported by healthcare facilities. However, methodology for timely and reliable estimation of that impact remains limited because of the delay in mortality data reporting. We explored real-time estimation of influenza-associated excess mortality by types/subtypes in each year between 2012 and 2018 in Hong Kong using linear regression models fitted to historical mortality and influenza surveillance data. We could predict that during the winter of 2017/2018, there were ~634 (95% confidence interval (CI): (190, 1033)) influenza-associated excess all-cause deaths in Hong Kong in population ⩾18 years, compared to 259 reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. We estimated that influenza was associated with substantial excess deaths in older adults, suggesting the implementation of control measures, such as administration of antivirals and vaccination, in that age group. The approach that we developed appears to provide robust real-time estimates of the impact of influenza circulation and complement surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed deaths. These results improve our understanding of the impact of influenza epidemics and provide a practical approach for a timely estimation of the mortality burden of influenza circulation during an ongoing epidemic.
Full-scale simulations of a (Magnetorheological) MR damper are carried out for revealing its hysteretic behaviors associated with implementation of semi-active control using the routine of computational fluid dynamics. By virtue of the structural symmetry of the MR damper, a two-dimensional configuration for finite element simulation is built up. Herschel-Bulkley model is employed to represent the property of the MR fluid, of which the control parameters and their relevances to the input current are addressed. Typical cases involving sinusoidal and irregular displacements, steady and transient currents loaded upon the MR damper are investigated. Numerical investigations reveal that the damper force has a positive correlation with input current, excitation amplitude and excitation frequency. The full-scale simulation is proved to exhibit a sound accuracy through the validation of experimental data. It provides a logical manner revealing the true performance of MR dampers under desirable operating modes in practice, and can be readily integrated with the gain design of the associated semi-actively controlled structure. This progress bypasses the technical challenge inherent in the traditional tests with low-frequency cyclic loadings due to the limitation of experimental setup. Besides, comparative study between two-dimensional and three-dimensional configuration simulations of the MR damper shows that former has a better applicability, which can be carried out on a low-cost platform.
Rhizoctonia solani Kühn and Pythium aphanidermatum Edson cause cabbage seedling damping-off, resulting in severe yield losses. The current study demonstrates the production of toxic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by two strains of Bacillus mycoides and the evaluation of a potential use of B. mycoides as a biocontrol agent to control cabbage damping-off. Two VOCs, dimethyl disulphide and ammonia, were found to reduce radial growth, cause hyphal deformation and result in organelle degeneration in both R. solani and P. aphanidermatum. Pathogen hyphae, after being exposed to VOCs, showed poor rigidity, shrinkage, curling and swelling. The amount of VOCs produced by B. mycoides and the antagonistic activity against plant pathogens varied, depending on the type of medium used to culture bacteria. Application of B. mycoides cell suspensions to cultivation medium promotes growth of five different plant species tested. Experiments conducted in greenhouses revealed that B. mycoides did not reduce damping-off incidence caused by R. solani. However, B. mycoides reduced damping-off incidence induced by P. aphanidermatum by as much as 45% on cabbage seedlings. The results provide valuable information on the feasibility of utilizing B. mycoides as a biocontrol agent in controlling cabbage damping-off.
Gut microbes, especially those in the large intestine, are actively involved in nutrient metabolism; however, their impact on host nitrogen (N) metabolism remains largely unknown. This study was designed to investigate the effects of feeding a cocktail of antibiotics (AGM) (ampicillin, gentamycin and metronidazole) on intestinal microbiota, N utilization efficiency, and amino acid (AA) digestibility in cannulated pigs, with the aim of exploring the impact of gut microbiota on host N metabolism. In total, 16 piglets were surgically fitted with a simple distal ileal T-cannula and a jugular venous catheter. The pigs were fed a basal diet without antibiotics (control; CON) or with antibiotics (antibiotic; ANTI), for 2 weeks. The results showed that feeding AGM did not affect weight gain or digestive enzyme activity. The antibiotics increased the concentration of urea N (P<0.05). However, they reduced N utilization, and the total tract apparent digestibility of isoleucine, methionine, valine, tyrosine and total AA (P<0.05). Furthermore, the antibiotics increased the terminal ileum apparent digestibility of CP, phenylalanine, valine, alanine, tyrosine and total AA (P<0.05). AGM markedly altered the composition of the microbiota in the ileum and feces, with a reduction in populations of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus and Ruminococcus, and an increase in the abundance of Escherichia coli (P<0.05). The antibiotics also significantly increased the concentration of cadaverine and ammonia, both in ileal digesta and feces (P<0.05), suggesting a marked impact on N metabolism in the intestine. The analyses indicated that the alteration of gut microbiota was correlated with the apparent digestibility of CP and AA in the intestine. These findings suggest that the AGM-induced alteration of gut microbiota may contribute to the change in intestinal N metabolism, and consequently, N excretion from the body. These results also suggest that antibiotics could have a significant effect on host N metabolism. The present study contributes to our understanding of the effects of antibiotics and provides a rational scientific basis for diet formulation during AGM use.
We report on a novel processing route to prepare La0.8Ce0.2(Fe0.95Co0.05)11.8Si1.2/Cu bulk composites by low-temperature hot pressing. With increasing copper content, the compressive strength of the composites first decrease and then increase owing to the buffering effect of copper, but the magnetocaloric effect reduces to some extent. Copper addition improves the thermal conductivity of the composites, which compensates for the decrease in thermal conductivity due to porosity. A relatively large entropy change of 5.75–7.19 J/(kg K) at 2 T near the Curie temperature (249 K), good thermal conductivity of 7.51–15.55 W/(m·K), and improved compressive strength of 151.1–248.0 MPa make these composites attractive magnetic refrigeration materials.
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute infectious disease caused by serotypes of the enterovirus (EV) family. HFMD reinfection occurs commonly in lack of cross-protection between different EV serotypes. In this study, we investigated the hazards of HFMD reinfection using Cox-proportional hazard model. Retrospective data of 95 209 HFMD cases in Wuhan during 2008–2015 was used. Kaplan–Meier survival methods and Cox-proportional hazard model were used to estimate the hazard probabilities. Of the all HFMD cases, about 2% experienced reinfection (1842/95 209). Kaplan–Meier curves revealed the reinfection risk sharply increased before 40 months from first infection. Higher hazards of reinfection were detected among those who were males, aged 3 years and below, scattered children, belonging to urban areas and first infected with coxsackievirus (CV)-A16 compared with their respective counterparts. Cox-proportional hazard model suggested that gender, age, group, living area and serotypes of first infection had significant effect on reinfection even after adjusting for potential confounding effects of other selected factors considered in the study. These results indicate that boys aged 3 years and below, especially those living in urban areas and first infected with CV-A16 are more prone to reinfection. Interventions should be imposed on these high-risk populations.
Superior and inferior rice grains have different weights and are located on the upper primary branch and lower secondary branches of the panicle, respectively. To study differences in germination vigour of these two types of grain, a number of factors were investigated from 0 to 48 h of germination. The present study demonstrated that in inferior grains the starch granule structure was looser at 0 h, with full water absorption at 48 h, while in superior grains the structure was tight and dense. Relative water content increased, and dry matter decreased, more rapidly in inferior grains than in superior ones. Abscisic acid and gibberellin levels, as well as α-amylase activity, also changed more rapidly in inferior grains, while soluble sugar content and amylase coding gene expression increased more rapidly in inferior than superior grains during early germination. The expression of OsGAMYB was higher in inferior grains at 24 h but higher in superior grains at 48 h. The phenotypic index of seedlings was higher in seedlings from superior grains at the two-leaf stage. However, the thousand-grain weight and yield per plant in superior and inferior plants showed no significant difference at harvest. The present study indicates that inferior grains germinate faster than superior ones in the early germination stage. Although inferior grains produced weaker seedlings, it is worthwhile using them in rice production due to their comparative yield potential over that of superior grains.
This paper reports the measurement of the energy loss of protons at the energy of 100 keV penetrating a partially ionized hydrogen plasma. The plasma of ne ≈ 1015–16 cm−3; Te ≈ 1–2 eV and lifetime of about 8 µs is created by the hydrogen gas discharge. The experimental results show an increase of a factor of 2.8 in the energy loss, which are in good agreement with the Bethe, Standard Stopping Model, Li–Petrasso and Vlasov models’ predictions within the error limit. The Bethe–Bloch Coulomb logarithm term is found to increase by a factor of 4.0 for free electrons as compared with the situation where bound electrons prevail. The potential application of protons energy loss for diagnosing the electron density in plasma is proposed too.
The present experiments explored the dynamical character of the gaseous jet injected flush into cross-flow for variable jet-to-cross-flow momentum flux ratios
(5, 12 and 41) and density ratios
(0.35 and 1.0). Contoured nozzle and straight pipe injectors were studied here, with the jet Reynolds number fixed at 1900 as other flow parameters were varied. Simultaneous acetone planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging and stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) were used to study the relationships between scalar and velocity/vorticity fields, with a special focus on comparing PLIF-based extraction of scalar dissipation rates and local strain rates with PIV-based local strain rates in the upstream and downstream shear layers of the jet. There was remarkable similarity between the scalar and vorticity fields for the jet in cross-flow, spanning conditions for absolutely unstable upstream jet shear layers at low
values to conditions for convectively unstable shear layers for larger
, equidensity conditions (Megerian et al., J. Fluid Mech., vol. 593, 2007, pp. 93–129; Getsinger et al., Exp. Fluids, vol. 53, 2012, pp. 783–801). Proper orthogonal decomposition applied to both scalar and velocity fields revealed strengthening instabilities in both the upstream shear layer and in the jet’s wake as
was reduced. The simultaneous measurements allowed PLIF-extracted scalar dissipation rates and strain rates to be determined via a flamelet-like model and compared with PIV-extracted strain rates, each in the diffusion layer-normal direction. There was generally very good qualitative and quantitative agreement for these metrics in both the jet upstream and downstream shear layers for most flow conditions, with excellent correspondence to locations of shear layer vorticity roll up, although downstream shear layer strain rates in some cases showed lesser correspondence between PLIF- and PIV-based data. Such differences are shown to potentially result from diffusion and resolution effects as well as the influence of three-dimensional and transient effects which can be more significant in the lee side of the jet. Nevertheless, the present results reveal interesting dynamics and demonstrate the importance of strain fields in enhanced diffusion and transport phenomena.
From KNK metric, we have shown that there may exist some kind of celestial bodies which can not collapse to black holes provided that the proportion of the content of the magnetic monopoles to the nuclei ξ = Nm/NB exceeds a critical value ξc (l-a2/Rg2), in which ξc =√G mB/gm ∼ 4.4 ×1021, a = J/Mc, Rg =GM/c2.
The musk deer (Moschus berezovskii) is an economically important species from which musk is extracted and used in perfumes and medicines. Cestodes (parasitic flatworms) of the genus Moniezia are important parasites that infect this endangered species and can cause high mortality in young deer. In 1982, Moniezia (S.) sichuanensis sp. nov. was described from a specimen obtained from wild musk deer. The new species was distinct from the other described species of Moniezia by the sawtooth-shaped interproglottidal glands, the thick vagina and the absence of a cirrus spine. In the present study, 12 cestodes collected from musk deer were examined morphologically and confirmed to be M. sichuanensis. Molecular characterization was performed by amplifying and comparing the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) and 5.8S rRNA gene (ITS1–5.8S) of ribosomal DNA with available sequences from other Moniezia species. The amplified sequences ranged from 761 to 764 bp and similarity ranged from 98.7–100%, compared to 67.8–92.4% with other Moniezia spp. Construction of a phylogenetic tree using the neighbour-joining method indicated that all 12 ITS1–5.8S sequences formed a single clade, confirming M. sichuanensis as a separate species. This study provides novel molecular insight into M. sichuanensis that could prove useful for future diagnosis and control of monieziasis in musk deer.
755 CCD observations during the years 2014-2016 have been reduced to derive the precise positions of Triton, the first satellite of Neptune. The observations were made by the 1 m telescope at Yunnan Observatory over 15 nights during the years 2014-2016. The theoretical position of Triton was retrieved from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Horizons system. Our results show that when the newest Gaia catalogue (Gaia DR1) is referred to the mean O-Cs (observed minus computed) residuals are about 0.042 and -0.006 arcsec, the dispersions are 0.012 and 0.012 arcsec in right ascension and declination, respectively. The dispersions are improved very significantly when the Gaia DR1 is referred to. However, the agreement in right ascension is not so good as that in declination, the reason might come from the uncertainty of planet ephemeris. More observations are needed to confirm this.
The Gaia DR1 catalogue stars are taken as reference ones to reduce the Cassini ISS images of Enceladus in 2015, and a total of 494 Cassini-centered astrometric observation are obtained in right ascension(α) and declination (δ) in the international Celestial Reference Frame(ICRF). Compared with JPL ephemerides SAT367, we derive that their mean residuals are a few tens meters in α*cos(δ) and a few kilometers in δ, and their standard deviation is not over 2 kilometers. Compared with the results from UCAC4 catalogue stars, The Gaia DR1 has the equivalent precision of reduction.
Charge carrier transport across interfaces of dissimilar materials (including vacuum) is the essence of all electronic devices. Ultrafast charge transport across a nanometre length scale is of fundamental importance in the miniaturization of vacuum and plasma electronics. With the combination of recent advances in electronics, photonics and nanotechnology, these miniature devices may integrate with solid-state platforms, achieving superior performance. This paper reviews recent modelling efforts on quantum tunnelling, ultrafast electron emission and transport, and electrical contact resistance. Unsolved problems and challenges in these areas are addressed.
Necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) is a common disease in premature infants characterised by intestinal ischaemia and necrosis. The only effective preventative strategy against NEC is the administration of breast milk, although the protective mechanisms remain unknown. We hypothesise that an abundant human milk oligosaccharide (HMO) in breast milk, 2′-fucosyllactose (2′FL), protects against NEC by enhancing intestinal mucosal blood flow, and we sought to determine the mechanisms underlying this protection. Administration of HMO-2′FL protected against NEC in neonatal wild-type mice, resulted in a decrease in pro-inflammatory markers and preserved the small intestinal mucosal architecture. These protective effects occurred via restoration of intestinal perfusion through up-regulation of the vasodilatory molecule endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS), as administration of HMO-2′FL to eNOS-deficient mice or to mice that received eNOS inhibitors did not protect against NEC, and by 16S analysis HMO-2′FL affected the microbiota of the neonatal mouse gut, although these changes do not seem to be the primary mechanism of protection. Induction of eNOS by HMO-2′FL was also observed in cultured endothelial cells, providing a link between eNOS and HMO in the endothelium. These data demonstrate that HMO-2′FL protects against NEC in part through maintaining mesenteric perfusion via increased eNOS expression, and suggest that the 2′FL found in human milk may be mediating some of the protective benefits of breast milk in the clinical setting against NEC.
Concentrations of organic carbon, carbon isotopes (13C and 14C), atmospheric 10Be in soil, and in situ 10Be in bedrock and weathering rock were determined in a study of a profile of a grassland slope at the Heshan Hilly Land Interdisciplinary Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in Guangdong Province, China. A good linear relationship between depth and the 14C apparent age of the organic carbon demonstrates that the rock weathering process and the accumulation process of organic matter in the slope are relatively stable. Both 14C and 10Be results show that about 34% of soil in the grassland slope has been eroded during the past 3800 yr. The 10Be results for interstitial soil from weathered rocks show that the 90-cm-thick weathering rock layer above the bedrock has evolved over a period of 1.36 Myr. The concentrations of in situ 10Be in the weathered rock and bedrock are 10.7 × 104 atoms/g and 8.31 × 104 atoms/g, respectively. The weathering rate of the bedrock, equivalent to the soil production rate, was estimated at 8.8 × 10-4 cm/yr, and the exposure ages of the weathered rock and the bedrock were 72 kyr and 230 kyr, respectively.
Social networks facilitate the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in people who inject drugs (PWID). The aim of this study was to assess how certain network structural characteristics are related to HCV infections in PWID and to determine the most susceptible individuals for HCV transmission in a network of PWID. PWID (N = 80) from central China were recruited from a previous follow-up case-control study. Demographic and behavioural information was obtained from a computerized database for each group. HCV RNA was extracted from blood specimens. Sequences were used to construct a phylogenetic tree and to determine genetic distances. Socio-metric social links were established between participants. Network measures were calculated using UCINET. Three HCV genotypes were identified, covering five subtypes. The density of the social networks for the whole sample (N = 80), case group (n = 31) and control group (n = 49) was 0.038, 0.054 and 0.008, respectively. PWID infected with HCV were in frequent contact with others within their group. There were four pairs of nodes with genotypic distances of 0.000 that were identified and clustered in subtypes 6a and 1b; each subject pair was linked and found in one clique. Three of the five most active nodes were infected with HCV. These three nodes served as a bridge, contributing to the connection of other nodes. These findings identify susceptible individuals for HCV transmission in PWID based on their frequent contact with others in the network. These results provide data that could be used for modelling HCV transmission patterns and in public health policies.