More than 80% of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases are mild or moderate. In this study, a risk model was developed for predicting rehabilitation duration (the time from hospital admission to discharge) of the mild-moderate COVID-19 cases and was used to conduct refined risk management for different risk populations.

A total of 90 consecutive patients with mild-moderate COVID-19 were enrolled. Large-scale datasets were extracted from clinical practices. Through the multivariable linear regression analysis, the model was based on significant risk factors and was developed for predicting the rehabilitation duration of mild-moderate cases of COVID-19. To assess the local epidemic situation, risk management was conducted by weighing the risk of populations at different risk.

Ten risk factors from 44 high-dimensional clinical datasets were significantly correlated to rehabilitation duration (P < 0.05). Among these factors, 5 risk predictors were incorporated into a risk model. Individual rehabilitation durations were effectively calculated. Weighing the local epidemic situation, threshold probability was classified for low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. Using this classification, risk management was based on a treatment flowchart tailored for clinical decision-making.

The proposed novel model is a useful tool for individualized risk management of mild-moderate COVID-19 cases, and it may readily facilitate dynamic clinical decision-making for different risk populations.