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When 2017 Hurricane Harvey struck the coastline of Texas on August 25, 2017, it resulted in 88 fatalities and more than US $125 billion in damage to infrastructure. The floods associated with the storm created a toxic mix of chemicals, sewage and other biohazards, and over 6 million cubic meters of garbage in Houston alone. The level of biohazard exposure and injuries from trauma among persons residing in affected areas was widespread and likely contributed to increases in emergency department (ED) visits in Houston and cities receiving hurricane evacuees. We investigated medical surge resulting from these evacuations in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex EDs.
We used data sourced from the North Texas Syndromic Surveillance Region 2/3 in ESSENCE to investigate ED visit surge following the storm in DFW hospitals because this area received evacuees from the 60 counties with disaster declarations due to the storm. We used the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to estimate the magnitude and duration of the ED surge. ITS was applied to all ED visits in DFW and visits made by patients residing in any of the 60 counties with disaster declarations due to the storm. The DFW metropolitan statistical area included 55 hospitals. Time series analyses examined data from March 1, 2017–January 6, 2018 with focus on the storm impact period, August 14–September 15, 2017. Data from before, during, and after the storm were visualized spatially and temporally to characterize magnitude, duration, and spatial variation of medical surge attributable to Hurricane Harvey.
During the study period overall, ED visits in the DFW area rose immediately by about 11% (95% CI: 9%, 13%), amounting to ~16 500 excess total visits before returning to the baseline on September 21, 2017. Visits by patients identified as residing in disaster declaration counties to DFW hospitals rose immediately by 127% (95% CI: 125%, 129%), amounting to 654 excess visits by September 29, 2017, when visits returned to the baseline. A spatial analysis revealed that evacuated patients were strongly clustered (Moran’s I = 0.35, P < 0.0001) among 5 of the counties with disaster declarations in the 11-day window during the storm surge.
The observed increase in ED visits in DFW due to Hurricane Harvey and ensuing evacuation was significant. Anticipating medical surge following large-scale hurricanes is critical for community preparedness planning. Coordinated planning across stakeholders is necessary to safeguard the population and for a skillful response to medical surge needs. Plans that address hurricane response, in particular, should have contingencies for support beyond the expected disaster areas.
The political atmosphere on US college campuses is overwhelmingly left-leaning and liberal, with the vast majority of faculty self-identifying as socially progressive. Considerable research on cognitive biases has demonstrated the pervasive role of people’s attitudes, which act as filters during thinking and reasoning – particularly about politically-valenced topics. The prevalence of faculty from one side of the political spectrum coupled with the omnipresence of cognitive biases means that college campuses and the research done by their faculty runs the risk of favoring one side during what should, scientifically-speaking, be a process of fair and open inquiry. We discuss these phenomena and document numerous examples in which lack of genuine viewpoint diversity has spelled trouble for sound science. We advocate a more ideologically-diverse scientific workforce to better enable true diversity of thinking on key issues of our time.
There are large between-country differences in measures of economic and noneconomic well-being. Many researchers view increasing the stock of human capital as the key to raising economic development, promoting democratization, and improving health, and hence improving overall societal well-being. The single most studied aspect of human capital concerns cognitive competence. Differences in population cognitive competence might explain these societal differences. Evidence suggests that education builds cognitive competence, and education and cognitive competence promote better social outcomes, in terms of both economic and noneconomic factors. However, measuring population cognitive competence for countries requires representative samples, culture-fair tests, equivalency in the relationship between test measures and other cognitive attributes, and comparability in testing situations. In most cases, none of this has been achieved.
The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) comprises multiple longitudinal, community-representative investigations of twin and adoptive families that focus on psychological adjustment, personality, cognitive ability and brain function, with a special emphasis on substance use and related psychopathology. The MCTFR includes the Minnesota Twin Registry (MTR), a cohort of twins who have completed assessments in middle and older adulthood; the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS) of twins assessed from childhood and adolescence into middle adulthood; the Enrichment Study (ES) of twins oversampled for high risk for substance-use disorders assessed from childhood into young adulthood; the Adolescent Brain (AdBrain) study, a neuroimaging study of adolescent twins; and the Siblings Interaction and Behavior Study (SIBS), a study of adoptive and nonadoptive families assessed from adolescence into young adulthood. Here we provide a brief overview of key features of these established studies and describe new MCTFR investigations that follow up and expand upon existing studies or recruit and assess new samples, including the MTR Study of Relationships, Personality, and Health (MTR-RPH); the Colorado-Minnesota (COMN) Marijuana Study; the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study; the Colorado Online Twins (CoTwins) study and the Children of Twins (CoT) study.
Subclinical adolescent alcohol use is highly prevalent and may have deleterious effects on important psychosocial and brain outcomes. Prior research has focused on identifying endophenotypes of pathological drinking, and the predictors of normative drinking remain understudied. This study investigated the incremental predictive value of two potential psychophysiological endophenotypes, P3 amplitude (an index of decision making) and midfrontal theta power (a correlate of attentional control), for prospectively predicting the expression and initiation of alcohol use emerging in adolescence.
A large (N = 594) epidemiological sample was prospectively assessed at ages 11/14/17. Alcohol/substance use was assessed at all ages via a computerized self-report inventory. EEG was recorded at age-14 during a visual oddball task to elicit P3 and theta.
Reduced target-related P3 and theta at age-14 prospectively predicted drinking at age-17 independent of one another. Among alcohol-naive individuals at age-14, attenuated P3 and theta increased the odds of new-onset alcohol behaviors 3 years later. Importantly, the endophenotypes provided significant incremental predictive power of future non-clinical alcohol use beyond relevant risk factors (prior alcohol use; tobacco/illicit drug initiation; parental alcohol use disorder).
The current report is the first of our knowledge to demonstrate that deviations in parietal P3 and midfrontal theta prospectively predict the emergence of normative/non-pathological drinking. P3 and theta provide modest yet significant explanatory variance beyond prominent self-report and familial risk measures. Findings offer strong evidence supporting the predictive utility of P3 and theta as candidate endophenotypes for adolescent drinking.
This article describes and measures how the Bank of Amsterdam supplied a successful fiat money in a world of specie by offering the unlimited repo of large coins at a near-zero rate. Our data from 1736 to 1791 finds that such liberal access led to volatile loan levels and that the Bank responded with sterilization by means of open market operations. In this way, the Bank held its money stock at a roughly constant level and helped stabilize its value. Profit was another part of the Bank’s policy framework, and the pursuit of seigniorage eventually compromised stabilization.
This volume has achieved a large coverage of the experimentally well-studied areas of the temperate and subtropical coasts of the world (see Figure 1.1) – venturing into the tropics in some regions (Chapter 14, South-East Asia) and including mangroves (Chapter 17). Coral reef systems have not been considered. Much of the emphasis has been on rocky habitats as this is where the majority of experimental work on interactions has been done (but see Chapter 6). As well as reviewing regions where there has been a long history of experimental research (e.g., Chapters 2–4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16), areas of emerging experimental research in the last twenty-five years (e.g., Chapter 8, western Mediterranean; Chapter 12, south-east Pacific) and understudied regions (e.g., Chapter 7, Argentina; Chapter 14, South-East Asia) have also been included, allowing more comprehensive insights into the processes important for shaping these communities. In this short synthesis chapter, we first consider the main processes determining patterns covered by the previous chapters. We then consider major human impacts in these regions. Finally, we identify gaps in knowledge and make some suggestions for the way forward. We make the case for combining phylogeographic studies with macro-ecology and biogeography, coupled with well-designed hypothesis testing experiments, to better understand processes generating patterns on micro-evolutionary (hundreds to thousands of years) and ecological (up to hundreds of years) time scales.
The synthesis of the Aquatic Biodiversity and Ecosystems Conference (ABEC) 2015, which was held to assess scientific progress over the past twnety-five years, this book provides a comprehensive and global review of work since the 1992 publication of Plant-Animal Interactions in the Marine Benthos. Taking a regional and, where appropriate, habitat perspective, it considers sites of coastal biodiversity from around the world to incorporate a global approach. The volume analyses abiotic and biotic interactions, and the factors determining distribution patterns, community structure and ecosystem functioning of coastal systems. It explores themes of how phylogeography and biogeographic process influence assemblage composition, and hence drive community structure and the respective roles of environmental factors and biological interactions, with the overall goal to establish how general are the processes in different regions and habitats. For researchers, graduate students and academics studying coastal ecosystems, with interest for conservation practitioners managing areas of high biodiversity.
At the end of the 2015 Aquatic Biodiversity and Ecosystems Conference, a day was set aside for a workshop following up on the 1990 Plant–Animal Interactions meeting and its associated Systematics Association book – Plant–Animal Interactions in the Marine Benthos (John et al., 1992). Talks given throughout the 2015 conference also informed the present volume and its chapters. The 2015 workshop took a comparative approach with a series of informal presentations and discussion sessions from selected participants from around the world. The general aim was to take a regionally based view of the role of interactions in setting distribution patterns, community structure and functioning of shallow-water marine ecosystems. The coverage was predominantly coastal, down to the limit of light penetration. Most contributions were from those working on rocky intertidal and subtidal habitats, reflecting the size (and willingness to contribute) of the research community coupled with the greater tradition of experimental approaches to examine interactions on more tractable hard substrata. In addition, mangroves, biofilms and the deep sea were also considered as special systems that are ubiquitous across several oceans where significant advances have been made and, therefore, warranted inclusion. Recent advances in remotely operated vehicles, for example, have increased the scope for observation and experiment in the deep sea (Johnson et al., 2013); whereas mangroves are important ecosystem engineers which provide important ecosystem services, but are declining globally (Polidoro et al., 2010; Chee et al., 2017). Biofilms were also included as a subject given their global distribution and importance as the site of first settlement of macrobenthic organisms and as a food source for grazers (Abreu et al., 2007). While this volume does not feature any chapters specifically on artificial structures, ocean sprawl or eco-engineering, a large number of talks and posters at the conference dealt with these emerging issues, reflecting their global importance (see Firth et al., 2016; Bishop et al., 2017 and Strain et al., 2018 for reviews). A notable omission is coral reefs, which were not covered because they already have a well-established community of research workers and deserve a volume in their own right. Inevitably, there are gaps in coverage reflecting difficulties in soliciting and delivering input, especially on soft shores as well as certain geographic locations. Coverage in 1992 and 2018 is shown on the maps in Figure 1.1.
Originalism has long been criticized for its “law office history” and other historical sins. But a recent “positive turn” in originalist thought may help make peace between history and law. On this theory, originalism is best understood as a claim about our modern law--which borrows many of its rules, constitutional or otherwise, from the law of the past. Our law happens to be the Founders' law, unless lawfully changed. This theory has three important implications for the role of history in law. First, whether and how past law matters today is a question of current law, not of history. Second, applying that current law may often require deference to historical expertise, but for a more limited inquiry: one that looks specifically at legal doctrines and instruments, interprets those instruments in artificial ways, and makes use of evidentiary principles and default rules when the history is obscure. Third, ordinary legal reasoning already involves the application of old law to new facts, an inquiry that might otherwise seem daunting or anachronistic. Applying yesterday's “no vehicles in the park” ordinance is no less fraught--and no more so--than applying Founding-era legal doctrines.