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We developed a mechanism model which allows for simulating the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with the combined effects of human adaptive behaviours and vaccination, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reported cases and vaccination data) between 22 January 2020 and 18 July 2022, we validated the model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting method. We found that (1) if without adaptive behaviours, the epidemic could sweep the world in 2022 and 2023, causing 3.098 billion of human infections, which is 5.39 times of current number; (2) 645 million people could be avoided from infection due to vaccination; and (3) in current scenarios of protective behaviours and vaccination, infection cases would increase slowly, levelling off around 2023, and it would end completely in June 2025, causing 1.024 billion infections, with 12.5 million death. Our findings suggest that vaccination and the collective protection behaviour remain the key determinants against the global process of COVID-19 transmission.
Little is known about the effects of dietary patterns on prevalent pre-eclampsia in Chinese population. This study aimed to investigate the associations between dietary patterns and the odds of pre-eclampsia among Chinese pregnant women. A 1:1 age- and gestational week-matched case–control study was conducted between March 2016 and February 2019. A total of 440 pairs of pre-eclampsia cases and healthy controls were included. Dietary intakes were assessed by a seventy-nine-item FFQ and subsequently grouped into twenty-eight distinct groups. Factor analysis using the principal component method was adopted to derive the dietary patterns. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyse the associations of dietary patterns with prevalent pre-eclampsia. We identified four distinct dietary patterns: high fruit-vegetable, high protein, high fat-grain and high salt-sugar. We found that high fruit-vegetable dietary pattern (quartile (Q)4 v. Q1, OR 0·71, 95 % CI 0·55, 0·92, Ptrend = 0·013) and high protein dietary pattern (Q4 v. Q1, OR 0·72, 95 % CI 0·54, 0·95, Ptrend = 0·011) were associated with a decreased odds of pre-eclampsia in Chinese pregnant women. Whereas high fat-grain dietary pattern showed a U-shaped association with pre-eclampsia, the lowest OR was observed in the third quartile (Q3 v. Q1, OR 0·75, 95 % CI 0·57, 0·98, Ptrend = 0·111). No significant association was observed for high salt-sugar dietary pattern. In conclusion, pregnancy dietary pattern characterised by high fruit-vegetable or high protein was found to be associated with a reduced odds of pre-eclampsia in Chinese pregnant women.
Subthreshold depression (sD) negatively impacts well-being and psychosocial function and is more prevalent compared with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, as adults with sD are less likely to seek face-to-face intervention, internet-based cognitive-behavioral therapy (ICBT) may overcome barriers of accessibility to psychotherapy. Although several trials explored the efficacy of ICBT for sD, the results remain inconsistent. This study evaluated whether ICBT is effective in reducing depressive symptoms among Chinese adults with sD.
A randomized controlled trial was performed. The participants were randomly assigned to 5 weeks of ICBT, group-based face-to-face cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), or a waiting list (WL). Assessments were conducted at baseline, post-intervention and at a 6-month follow-up. The primary outcome measured depressive symptoms using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Outcomes were analyzed using a mixed-effects model to assess the effects of ICBT.
ICBT participants reported greater reductions on all the outcomes compared to the WL group at post-intervention. The ICBT group showed larger improvement on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) at post-intervention (d = 0.12) and at follow-up (d = 0.10), and with CES-D at post-intervention (d = 0.06), compared to the CBT group.
ICBT is effective in reducing depressive symptoms among Chinese adults with sD, and improvements in outcomes were sustained at a 6-month follow-up. Considering the low rates of face-to-face psychotherapy, our findings highlight the considerable potential and implications for the Chinese government to promote the use of ICBT for sD in China.
We propose a new neighbouring prediction model for mortality forecasting. For each mortality rate at age x in year t, mx,t, we construct an image of neighbourhood mortality data around mx,t, that is, Ꜫmx,t (x1, x2, s), which includes mortality information for ages in [x-x1, x+x2], lagging k years (1 ≤ k ≤ s). Combined with the deep learning model – convolutional neural network, this framework is able to capture the intricate nonlinear structure in the mortality data: the neighbourhood effect, which can go beyond the directions of period, age, and cohort as in classic mortality models. By performing an extensive empirical analysis on all the 41 countries and regions in the Human Mortality Database, we find that the proposed models achieve superior forecasting performance. This framework can be further enhanced to capture the patterns and interactions between multiple populations.
Echinococcus shiquicus is currently limited to the Qinghai–Tibet plateau, a large mountainous region in China. Although the zoonotic potential remains unknown, progress is being made on the distribution and intermediate host range. In this study, we report E. shiquicus within Gansu and Qinghai provinces in regions located not only around the central areas but also the southeast edge of the plateau and describe their genetic relationship with previous isolates from the plateau. From 1879 plateau pikas examined, 2.39% (95% CI 1.79–3.18) were infected with E. shiquicus. The highest prevalence of 10.26% (4.06–23.58) was recorded in Makehe town, Qinghai province. Overall the prevalence was marginally higher in Qinghai (2.5%, CI 1.82–3.43) than in Gansu (2%, CI 1.02–3.89). The cox1 and nad1 genes demonstrated high and low haplotype and nucleotide diversities, respectively. The median-joining network constructed by the cox1–nad1 gene sequences demonstrated a star-like configuration with a median vector (unsampled haplotype) occupying the centre of the network. No peculiar distinction or common haplotype was observed in isolates originating from the different provinces. The presence of E. shiquicus in regions of the southeast and northeast edges of the Qinghai–Tibet plateau and high genetic variation warrants more investigation into the haplotype distribution and genetic polymorphism by exploring more informative DNA regions of the mitochondrial genome to provide epidemiologically useful insight into the population structure of E. shiquicus across the plateau and its axis.
This study examined Echinococcus spp. genotypes and genetic variants isolated from humans as well as domestic and wild animals from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Area using the cox1 gene. All samples except the pika isolates were identified as the Echinococcus granulosus sensu stricto. Sixteen different haplotypes with considerable intraspecific variation were detected and characterized in mitochondrial cox1 sequences. The parsimonious network of cox1 haplotypes showed star-like features, and the neutrality indexes computed via Tajima's D and Fu's Fs tests showed high negative values in E. granulosus s. s., indicating deviations from neutrality; the Fst values were low among the populations, implying that the populations were not genetically differentiated. The pika isolates were identified as E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus. Only one haplotype was recognized in the pika isolates. E. granulosus s. s. was the predominant species found in animals and humans, followed by E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus, with high genetic diversity circulating among the animals and humans in this area. Further studies are needed to cover many sample collection sites and larger numbers of pathogen isolates, which may reveal abundant strains and/or other haplotypes in the hydatid cysts infecting human and animal populations of the QTPA, China.
Adverse weather-related risk is a main source of crop production loss and a big concern for agricultural insurers and reinsurers. In response, weather risk hedging may be valuable, however, due to basis risk it has been largely unsuccessful to date. This research proposes the Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copula model in modelling the spatial dependence of weather risk to reduce basis risk. The analysis shows that the Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copula model can improve the hedging performance through more accurate modelling of the dependence structure of weather risks and is more efficient in hedging extreme downside weather risk, compared to the benchmark copula models. Further, the results reveal that more effective hedging may be achieved as the spatial aggregation level increases. This research demonstrates that hedging weather risk is an important risk management method, and the approach outlined in this paper may be useful to insurers and reinsurers in the case of agriculture, as well as for other related risks in the property and casualty sector.
The dislocation movements under the action of electric pulses (athermal effect) at cryogenic conditions were studied by ex situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and slip trace analysis innovatively. By applying electric pulses directly through aluminum TEM samples in a liquid nitrogen bath, plenty of non-octahedral-like dislocation glides generally forming at high temperatures (e.g., >453 K for aluminum) were observed at cryogenic temperatures (<130 K). Occurrence of the non-octahedral-like dislocation glides indicates a substantial increase in the degrees of freedom for dislocation glides, offering a new/complementary explanation for the acceleration effect of electric pulses on dislocation movements, especially in the sole athermal effect. In comparison, previous theories relied on extra driving force and/or increased dislocation mobility on the octahedral planes in a face-centered cubic metal. The athermal effects of electric pulse were discussed and the selective heating at the dislocation cores was proposed to account for non-octahedral-like dislocation glides.
Objective: The incidence, types, and influencing factors of injuries due to snow-ice disasters are essential for public health preparedness. This study was designed to assess such factors of injuries during the 22-day snowstorm in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China, in 2008.
Methods: A multistage cluster probability sampling method was applied to select the study population in urban, rural, and mountainous areas. Data including sociodemographic characteristics, frequency, and types of injuries during the snowstorm between January 20 and February 10, 2008, were obtained by face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire and by checking the participants' medical records. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine the factors significantly associated with the risk of injuries.
Results: A total of 3169 residents of 1416 families took part in this survey. In 581 residents, 602 injuries were identified. Incidences of frostbite, falling injury, and traffic accident–related injury were 12.78%, 5.30%, and 0.50%, respectively. Injury occurred more frequently in women than in men (odds ratio [OR], 1.42; 95% CI, 1.19-1.70). Frostbite occurred more frequently in women than in men (adjusted OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.43-2.41) and more frequently in urban areas than in other areas (adjusted OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.24-2.20). Travel by bus or car, wearing a scarf, wearing gloves, wearing a raincoat, reducing outdoor activity, and performing regular physical exercise were independent protective factors of frostbite, with an adjusted OR (95% CI) of 0.35 (0.20-0.61), 0.45 (0.33-0.62), 0.35 (0.26-0.48), 0.45 (0.33-0.61), 0.36 (0.27-0.48), and 0.18 (0.13-0.24), respectively. Falling injury occurred more often in mountainous areas than in other areas (adjusted OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.27-2.42). Age 45 years or older, working outside more than 15 days, and wearing a raincoat were independent risk factors of falling injury, with an adjusted OR (95% CI) of 2.30 (1.60-3.32), 1.92 (1.36-2.72), and 2.21 (1.56-3.11), respectively. Falling and traffic accident–related injuries were mainly due to slippery roads.
Conclusions: Frostbite and falling injury were the major injuries caused by an unprecedented snow-ice disaster. Keeping warm and maintaining regular physical exercise appeared to reduce frostbite risk. Public health intervention also reduced the risk of falling and traffic accident–related injuries.
(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2012;6:363-369)
For low-temperature firing of Pb0.94Sr0.06(Ni1/2W1/2)0.02(Mn1/3Nb2/3)0.07(Zr0.51Ti0.49)0.91O3 (PNW–PMN–PZT) system, BiFeO3 is selected as the sintering agent. In this study, the effects of BiFeO3 addition and sintering temperature on the microstructures and piezoelectric properties of the ceramics were investigated in detail. The ceramic with 10 mol% BiFeO3 sintered at 950 °C possesses optimal microstructure and piezoelectric properties. However, with the increase of sintering temperature the lower relative density, abnormal grain growth, and secondary phase accumulated at grain boundaries are observed, which deteriorates the piezoelectric properties. For the ceramics with different BiFeO3 addition sintered at 950 °C, the densification process and the grain growth are improved by suitable BiFeO3, while the morphotropic phase boundary (MPB) moving to the Ti-rich direction and the shrinkage of crystal cell occur. However, extra BiFeO3 inhabits the grain growth and introduces more cavities into the materials. Because of the microstructural changes that accompany the addition of BiFeO3 and the resulting decrease in sintering temperature, the maximum values of the piezoelectric properties are attained. By doping with 10 mol% BiFeO3, the sintering temperature of the PNW–PMN–PZT system can be lowered successfully from 1200 to 950 °C, while the excellent electric properties are kept.
Formation of intermetallic compounds (IMCs) at the interface between two metals during soldering processing exerts much influence on the electrical and mechanical performance of integrate circuits (ICs). Considering both of the thermodynamic and kinetic factors (including nucleation and growth) on phase formation, a new model capable of predicting phase formation sequence at the interface between two metals with different structures has been proposed in this work. Application of this new model on the interfacial reactions between pure elemental pairs of metals such as Ni/Sn, Cu/In, Cu/Sn, and Co/Sn at different temperatures shows good agreement between predictions by this model and experimental observations.
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