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The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.
A shock-induced separation loss reduction method, using local blade suction surface shape modification (smooth ramp structure) with constant adverse pressure gradient with the consideration of radial equilibrium effect to split a single shock foot into multiple weaker shock wave configuration, is investigated on the NASA Rotor 37 for promoting aerodynamic performance of a transonic compressor rotor. Numerical investigation on baseline blade and improved one with blade modification on suction side has been conducted employing the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method to reveal flow physics of ramp structure. The results indicate that the passage shock foot of baseline is replaced with a family of compression waves and a weaker shock foot generating moderate adverse pressure gradient on ramp profile, which is beneficial for mitigating the shock foot and shrinking flow separation region as well. In addition, the radial secondary flow of low-momentum fluids within boundary layer is decreased significantly in the region of passage shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction on blade suction side, which mitigates the mass flow and mixing intensity of tip leakage flow. With the reduction of flow separation loss induced by passage shock, the adiabatic efficiency and total pressure ratio of improved rotor are superior to baseline model. This study herein implies a potential application of ramp profile in design method of transonic and supersonic compressors.
Resonant response of water waves in a narrow gap, with the interaction of multiple highly resonant modes, is an interesting hydrodynamic phenomenon with practical applications. Gap resonances between two identical fixed rectangular boxes are experimentally investigated for unidirectional waves with broadside incidence. We show that gap resonances can be driven through both linear wave excitation and nonlinear processes, i.e. frequency doubling, tripling and quadrupling – apparently new observations. It is striking that the time histories of the gap resonances excited through different nonlinear interactions are remarkably similar to each other. It seems likely that the nonlinear sum-frequency transfer functions for gap resonances depend strongly on the output frequency sum of the interacting linear components, but only weakly on the frequency difference. In terms of their structure in multiple frequency space (at second order the bi-frequency plane for two components), these transfer functions must then have a near-flat form in the direction(s) perpendicular to the leading diagonal. This is supported by our potential flow calculations of the quadratic transfer functions (QTFs). It is therefore convenient to approximate the QTF matrix as ‘flat’ in the direction perpendicular to the leading diagonal. This approximation is justified through experimental data that includes viscous damping. It is too complex, if not impossible, to calculate the full cubic or quartic transfer functions as direct evidence. However, the experimental analysis does provide some support for the near-flat structure being applicable to transfer functions above second order. The flat form approximation greatly reduces lengthy calculations of the high-order transfer functions.
Fluid–fluid displacement in porous media has been viewed through the lens of Lenormand's phase diagram since the late 1980s. This diagram suggests that the character of the flow is controlled by two dimensionless parameters: the capillary number and the viscosity ratio. It is by now well known, however, that the wettability of the system plays a key role in determining the pore-scale displacement mechanisms and macroscopic invasion patterns. Here, we endow Lenormand's diagram with the impact of wettability using dynamic and quasi-static pore-network models. By using the fractal dimension and the ratio of characteristic viscous and capillary pressures we delineate the five principal displacement regimes within the extended phase diagram: stable displacement, viscous fingering, invasion percolation, cooperative pore filling and corner flow. We discuss the results in the context of pattern formation, displacement-front dynamics, pore-scale disorder and displacement efficiency.
2-D junction characterization by dual lens electron holography, scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM), and scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM) on a variety of semiconductor devices is reported, including optical modulators, regular complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) devices, and SiGe hetero-junction bipolar transistors. In most cases these techniques provide comparable results, while in some instances one technique has advantages over the other and vice versa. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.
This study aimed to analyse the differences between underwater continuous drilling and traditional intermittent drilling for attic cholesteatoma.
The clinical data of 61 patients with attic cholesteatoma who underwent an endoscopic approach procedure were analysed. Forty patients underwent underwater continuous drilling (group A), and 21 patients underwent traditional intermittent drilling (group B).
The operation time was 64.61 ± 12.90 minutes in group A and 79.60 ± 16.81 minutes in group B (p < 0.05). The anaesthesia time was 102.69 ± 17.93 minutes in group A and 119.82 ± 19.28 minutes in group B (p < 0.05). The dry ear time, the hearing improvement rate and the post-operative complications were no different in the two groups.
Group A and group B had no differences in surgical outcome or hearing recovery. However, treatment in the former group resulted in a significantly shortened operation and anaesthesia time.
The present study was undertaken to evaluate the influence of rumen-protected folic acid (RPFA) on slaughter performance, visceral organ and gastrointestinal tract coefficients, and meat quality in lambs. Sixty-six lambs from 120 Hu ewes were selected based on body weight and maternal diets and then assigned to six groups using a randomised block experimental design in a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement. The first factor was folic acid (FA) as RPFA in the maternal diet (0 mg/kg (M0F), 16 mg/kg (M16F) or 32 mg/kg (M32F) on DM basis). The second factor was FA in the lambs’ diet from weaning until slaughter (0 mg/kg (OC) or 4·0 mg/kg (OF)). The results indicated that the addition of 16 mg/kg FA to the maternal diet increased pre-slaughter weight (PSW), dressing and meat percentage, the reticulum and omasum coefficients, length of the jejunum and ileum, tail fat and perirenal fat coefficient and a* value of the meat colour. The addition of RPFA to the lambs’ diet increased PSW, dressing and meat percentage, eye muscle area, abomasum weight, weight and length of the small intestine, but reduced the coefficients of tail fat. An M × O interaction was observed for the weights of heart, lungs, rumen and total stomach, weight and coefficient of omental fat and the girth rib value. Collectively, RPFA in the maternal and lambs’ diet improved slaughter performance and meat quality by stimulating the morphological development of the gastrointestinal tract and the distribution of fat in the body.
An acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreak caused by a norovirus occurred at a hospital in Shanghai, China, was studied for molecular epidemiology, host susceptibility and serological roles. Rectal and environmental swabs, paired serum samples and saliva specimens were collected. Pathogens were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) phenotypes of saliva samples and their binding to norovirus protruding proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBGA-binding interfaces and the surrounding region were analysed by the MegAlign program of DNAstar 7.1. Twenty-seven individuals in two care units were attacked with AGE at attack rates of 9.02 and 11.68%. Eighteen (78.2%) symptomatic and five (38.4%) asymptomatic individuals were GII.6/b norovirus positive. Saliva-based HBGA phenotyping showed that all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases belonged to A, B, AB or O secretors. Only four (16.7%) out of the 24 tested serum samples showed low blockade activity against HBGA-norovirus binding at the acute phase, whereas 11 (45.8%) samples at the convalescence stage showed seroconversion of such blockade. Specific blockade antibody in the population played an essential role in this norovirus epidemic. A wide HBGA-binding spectrum of GII.6 supports a need for continuous health attention and surveillance in different settings.
Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.
To evaluate the dynamic properties of a coupled structure based on the dynamic properties of its substructures, this paper investigates the dynamic substructuring issue from the perspective of response prediction. The main idea is that the connecting forces at the interface of substructures can be expressed by the unknown coupled structural responses, and the responses can be solved rather easily. Not only rigidly coupled structures but also resiliently coupled structures are investigated. In order to further comprehend and visualize the nature of coupling problems, the Neumann series expansion for a matrix describing the relation between the coupled and uncoupled substructures is also introduced in this paper. Compared with existing response prediction methods, the proposed method does not have to measure any forces, which makes it easier to apply than the others. Clearly, the frequency response function matrix of coupled structures can be derived directly based on the response prediction method. Compared with existing frequency response function synthesis methods, it is more straightforward and comprehensible. Through demonstration of two examples, it is concluded that the proposed method can deal with structural coupling problems very well.
To examine cross-sectional associations of four aspects of the consumer food environment – price, availability, marketing and product placement – with BMI and fruit and vegetable intake.
This cross-sectional study measured the consumer food environment using grocery store audits and surveys. Outcomes were measured through surveys and physical exams. Multivariable linear regression models were run; models were all adjusted for age, neighbourhood, education, race/ethnicity and financial burden.
Non-proportional quota sample of four socio-economically and racial/ethnically diverse neighbourhoods in Chicago, IL.
Women (n 228) aged 18–44 years.
Participants who reported seeing healthy food marketing had a higher vegetable intake (β = 0·24, 95 % CI 0·06, 0·42). There was some suggestive evidence that participants who shopped at stores that were more expensive (β = −0·90, 95 % CI −1·94, 0·14) had lower BMI, but this association was not statistically significant. Multivariable regression models did not indicate any significant association between any measure of the consumer food environment and fruit intake.
Our findings add to the growing interest in the role of the consumer food environment in health behaviours. Further research is needed to better understand the role of price and marketing characteristics on eating behaviours and BMI.
Dietary chitosan (CS) supplementation could improve the growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent digestibility and digestive enzyme activities in pigs, broiler chickens, rats and fish, whereas no data has been reported about the effect of CS on the growing Huoyan geese. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the effects of CS on growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent utilization and digestive enzyme activities of growing Huoyan geese. Three hundred and twenty (28 days of age, gender balance) Huoyan geese were randomly divided into control, CS100, CS200 and CS400 groups (based on BW) with 20 geese per pen and 4 replicates pen per group, and the feeding experiment lasted for 4 weeks. The 4 diets contained 0, 100, 200 and 400 mg CS per kg feed, respectively. The results showed that CS200 groups had higher average daily gain, final BW, apparent utilization of DM and CP, and lower feed/gain ratio compared with the control group (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, CS100 and CS200 groups had higher villus height, villus height/crypt depth ratio and lower crypt depth in duodenum and jejunum than those in the control group (P < 0.05). The geese in CS100 and CS200 groups had higher villus height, villus height/crypt depth ratio and lower crypt depth of ileum compared with those in control and CS400 groups (P < 0.05). In addition, compared with the control group, CS200 group has higher trypsin activities and lower lipase activities in duodenal, jejunal and ileal contents (P < 0.05). The results suggested that addition of 200 mg/kg CS had positive effects on growth rate, small intestinal morphology, nutrients apparent utilization and digestive enzyme activities of growing Huoyan geese.
This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and to analyse the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients during convalescence. In this study, we enrolled 71 confirmed cases of COVID-19 who were discharged from hospital and transferred to isolation wards from 6 February to 26 March 2020. They were all employees of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University or their family members of which three cases were <18 years of age. Clinical data were collected and analysed statistically. Forty-one cases (41/71, 57.7%) comprised medical faculty, young and middle-aged patients (aged ⩽60 years) accounted for 81.7% (58/71). The average isolation time period for all adult patients was 13.8 ± 6.1 days. During convalescence, RNA detection results of 35.2% patients (25/71) turned from negative to positive. The longest RNA reversed phase time was 7 days. In all, 52.9% of adult patients (36/68) had no obvious clinical symptoms, and the remaining ones had mild and non-specific clinical symptoms (e.g. cough, sputum, sore throat, disorders of the gastrointestinal tract etc.). Chest CT signs in 89.7% of adult patients (61/68) gradually improved, and in the others, the lesions were eventually absorbed and improved after short-term repeated progression. The main chest CT manifestations of adult patients were normal, GGO or fibre streak shadow, and six patients (8.8%) had extrapulmonary manifestations, but there was no significant correlation with RNA detection results (r = −0.008, P > 0.05). The drug treatment was mainly symptomatic support therapy, and antibiotics and antiviral drugs were ineffective. It is necessary to re-evaluate the isolation time and standard to terminate isolation for discharged COVID-19 patients.
To evaluate open-label treatment with olanzapine in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD).
In two concurrent studies, patients received 12 weeks of open-label olanzapine after completing 12-weeks of double-blind treatment with either olanzapine or placebo. Open-label olanzapine dosing started at 2.5 or 5mg/day and could be increased up to 20mg/day (Study 1) or 15mg/day (Study 2).
Mean ZAN-BPD total scores decreased from approximately 17 points to approximately 8-10 points during the acute phase. After 12 weeks of open-label olanzapine treatment, mean ZAN-BPD total scores were approximately 6-7 points. Patients treated with placebo during the acute phase and then open-label olanzapine showed changes in weight, prolactin, and other laboratory values similar in magnitude to those seen in acutely olanzapine-treated patients. Patients treated with olanzapine during the acute phase showed smaller changes in weight and laboratory values during the open-label extension.
Overall BPD symptom severity was low by the end of the open-label olanzapine treatment period. The types of treatment emergent adverse events appeared to be consistent with those seen previously in patients treated with olanzapine. The direction and magnitude of effects on safety measures depended on the treatment received during the prior double-blind period.
Imprinting, characterized by unequal expression of the offspring's genes in a parent-of-origin dependent manner, has been functionally implicated in brain development and in psychiatric disorders. In this study, unambiguous distortion in paternal but not maternal transmission of the disease-associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6556547 (T/G) clearly indicated the presence of parent-of-origin effect (POE) in the GABAA receptor β2 subunit gene (GABRB2). ‘Flipping’ of allelic mRNA expression in heterozygotes of SNP rs2229944 (C/T) and the observed two-tiered distribution of mRNA expression levels in heterozygotes of the disease-associated SNP rs1816071 (G/A) furnished important support for the occurrence of imprinting at GABRB2. Imprinting in effect introduced heterozygotes from different parents-of-origin endowed with dissimilar mRNA expression capabilities. The deficit of upper-tiered expressions accounted for the lowered mRNA expression levels in the schizophrenic heterozygotes. This pointed to the necessity of differentiating between two kinds of heterozygotes of different parental origins in disease association studies on GABRB2. Bisulfite sequencing revealed hypermethylation in the neighborhood of SNP rs1816071, and methylation differences between controls and schizophrenia patients. Notably, allele-specific methylation was observed at the disease-associated SNPs rs6556547 and rs1816071. These findings raised the possibility that CpG methylation status of these sites could have an impact on the expression of GABRB2 and the risk of schizophrenia. Furthermore, the occurrence of imprinting and allele-specific methylation in the schizophrenia candidate gene GABRB2 was compatible with the epigenetic hypothesis for schizophrenia pathophysiology, thereby calling for the need to explore the role of epigenetic factors in mediating susceptibility to schizophrenia.
Aripiprazole has demonstrated efficacy for the treatment of paediatric patients (10–17 years) with a manic or mixed episode associated with bipolar I disorder in a clinical trial that utilised the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) Total score as the primary outcome measure.
This analysis evaluated the profile of discrete symptom response using the YMRS and other measures.
Post-hoc analysis of individual items of the YMRS and the parent or subject version of the General Behaviour Inventory (GBI) Mania and Depression scales using data from a 4-week, double-blind, randomised trial that compared aripiprazole (10 or 30 mg/day, n = 197) with placebo (n = 99).
In total, 296 patients were randomised; 80% completed the study. Significant decreases at Week 4 (p < 0.05) were seen in eight YMRS items: elevated mood, increased motor activity/energy, need for sleep, irritability, speech (rate and amount), language/thought disorder, abnormal thought content and disruptive/aggressive behaviour. For the GBI, effect sizes for parent-reported mania items were medium to large (for example, 0.41 for ‘depressed but high energy’ to 0.78 for ‘rage combined with unusually happy’) but were consistently small on subject self-reported items of mania and depression and, for the overall scale, had the poorest agreement with clinician ratings.
Aripiprazole demonstrated improvements in some of the more troublesome symptoms of paediatric patients with bipolar I disorder experiencing an acute manic or mixed episode. Of note, irritability and aggression showed large treatment effects on both clinician and parent-reported measures, but less so for subject-reported measures.
Previously the GABA(A) receptor beta-2 subunit gene GABRB2 was found to be associated with schizophrenia (SCZ). for SNPs and haplotypes in GRBRB2, the associations with bipolar disorder (BPD), the functional consequences on GABRB2 expression and their relationship to demographic and clinical characteristics in BPD and SCZ remain to be elucidated.
Case-control analysis was performed for association study of GABRB2 with BPD, and its mRNA expression in postmortem BPD brains was examined using quantitative real-time PCR. Quantitative trait analysis was subsequently employed to assess the covariate effects of demographic and clinical characteristics on genotypic correlation of GABRB2 expression in SCZ and BPD.
Significant association of GABRB2 with BPD and reduction in GABRB2 mRNA expression in BPD brains were observed in the present study. Duration of illness (DOI) was found to be a significant covariate for the correlation of the disease-associated SNPs rs1816071, rs1816072 and rs187269 with GABRB2 expression in both SCZ and BPD. for individuals with homozygous major genotypes of these SNPs, while GABRB2 expression increased with age in the controls, it decreased with DOI and age in SCZ, and with DOI in BPD. with age of onset as covariate, these three SNPs were significantly correlated with antipsychotic dosage in SCZ.
These results have thus revealed correlations of GABRB2 SNPs and expression not only with the occurrence of SCZ and BPD, but also with the clinical characteristics of patients, therefore providing support for a shared etiological role played by the gene in both diseases.
We examined the efficacy and safety of low vs. moderate olanzapine doses for the treatment of borderline personality disorder (BPD) in the largest controlled clinical trial ever conducted in this population.
This 12-week, double-blind trial involved patients 18-65 years with a diagnosis of DSM-IV BPD randomized to receive 2.5mg/day olanzapine (N=150), 5-10mg/day olanzapine (N=148), or placebo (N=153). The primary efficacy measure was the change from baseline-to-endpoint (last-observation-carried-forward) on the Zanarini Rating Scale for BPD (ZAN-BPD) total score. Rate of response and time-to-response were also examined (response defined as a >=50% reduction in ZAN-BPD total score).
Mean baseline ZAN-BPD total scores ranged from 17.01 to 17.42, indicating moderate symptom severity. Treatment with OLZ5-10 was associated with significantly greater mean change from baseline-to-endpoint in ZAN-BPD total score than placebo (-8.50 vs. -6.79, p=.010). Response rates were significantly higher for OLZ5-10 (73.6%) than for OLZ2.5 (60.1%, p=.018) and placebo (57.8%, p=.006). Time-to-response was significantly shorter for OLZ5-10 than placebo (p=.028). Treatment-emergent adverse events seen more frequently in the olanzapine groups included somnolence, increased appetite, and weight gain. Mean weight change from baseline-to-endpoint was 2.09kg for OLZ 2.5, 3.17kg for OLZ5-10, and 0.02kg for placebo.
The results of this study suggest that moderate doses of olanzapine (5-10mg/day) are effective in the treatment of overall borderline psychopathology. Also, the types of adverse events observed with olanzapine treatment were similar to those seen previously in adult populations.
Many MRI studies have cited major depression, with or without anti-depressive treatment, associated with structural plasticity changing in several brain regions. Few of these studies researched the effect of the anti-depressive treatment, electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), on depression.
To assess the influence of ECT on the brain structure change during the treatment process by utilizing the voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis.
To determine whether ECT alter brain structure.
We performed HAMD ratings and MRI scans on 12 depressive patients during ECT, analyzing the data by VBM with SPM8 software's family-wise error correction (FWE).
The researchers found volumes changes in white matter in 37 regions between pre-ECT and post-ECT1, but only one region changing between pre-ECT and post-ECT8. Seven regions changing in grey matter between pre-ECT and post-ECT 1⌧but none regions changing between pre-ECT and post-ECT8.
The density changes in several brain regions after a single ECT stimuli, but return to the original level after completing the eighth ECT. Our finding supports that ECT may play a temporary role in treating major depression but do not permanently alter the structures of brain.
Childhoods in urban or rural environments may differentially affect risk for neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, we leveraged on dramatic urbanization and rural-urban migration since the 1980s in China to explore the hypothesis that rural or urban childhoods may differentially influence memory processing and neural responses to neutral and aversive stimuli.
Explore the underlying mechanisms of childhood environment effect on brain function and neuropsychiatric risk.
We examined 420 adult subjects with similar current socioeconomic status and living in Beijing, China, but with differing rural (n = 227) or urban (n = 193) childhoods. In an episodic memory paradigm scanned in a 3 T GE MRI, subjects viewed blocks of neutral or aversive pictures in the encoding and retrieval sessions.
Episodic memory accuracy for neutral stimuli was less than for aversive stimuli (P < 0.001). However, subjects with rural childhoods apparently performed less accurately for memory of aversive but not neutral stimuli (P < 0.01). In subjects with rural childhoods, there was relatively increased engagement of bilateral striatum at encoding, increased engagement of bilateral hippocampus at retrieval of neutral and aversive stimuli, and increased engagement of amygdala at aversive retrieval (P < 0.05 FDR corrected, cluster size > 50).
Rural or urban childhoods appear associated with physiological and behavioural differences, particularly in the neural processing of aversive episodic memory at medial temporal and striatal brain regions. It remains to be explored the extent to which these effects relate to individual risk for neuropsychiatric or stress-related disorders.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.