This paper investigates whether age of onset of depression, duration of the last episode, number of episodes, and residual symptoms of depression and anxiety are associated with depression relapse in primary care patients who have been on long–term maintenance antidepressant treatment and no longer meet ICD10 criteria for depression.

An observational cohort using data from ANTLER (N = 478), a double-blind placebo-controlled trial. The primary outcome was time to relapse using the retrospective CIS-R. Participants were followed for 12 months.

Primary outcome was available for 468 participants. Time to relapse in those with more than five previous episodes of depression was shorter, hazard ratio (HR) 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23–2.75) compared to people with two episodes; HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.01–2.43) after adjustment. The residual symptoms of depression at baseline were also associated with increased relapse: HR 1.05 (95% CI 1.01–1.09) and HR 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.12) in the adjusted model. There was evidence of reduced rate of relapse in older age of onset group: HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.78–0.95); HR attenuated after adjustment HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.81–1.02). There was no evidence of an association between duration of the current episode and residual anxiety symptoms with relapse.

The number of previous episodes and residual symptoms of depression were associated with increased likelihood of relapse. These factors could inform joint decision making when patients are considering tapering off maintenance antidepressant treatment or considering other treatments to prevent relapse.

This study aimed to investigate general factors associated with prognosis regardless of the type of treatment received, for adults with depression in primary care.

We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Central (inception to 12/01/2020) for RCTs that included the most commonly used comprehensive measure of depressive and anxiety disorder symptoms and diagnoses, in primary care depression RCTs (the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule: CIS-R). Two-stage random-effects meta-analyses were conducted.

Twelve (n = 6024) of thirteen eligible studies (n = 6175) provided individual patient data. There was a 31% (95%CI: 25 to 37) difference in depressive symptoms at 3–4 months per standard deviation increase in baseline depressive symptoms. Four additional factors: the duration of anxiety; duration of depression; comorbid panic disorder; and a history of antidepressant treatment were also independently associated with poorer prognosis. There was evidence that the difference in prognosis when these factors were combined could be of clinical importance. Adding these variables improved the amount of variance explained in 3–4 month depressive symptoms from 16% using depressive symptom severity alone to 27%. Risk of bias (assessed with QUIPS) was low in all studies and quality (assessed with GRADE) was high. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our conclusions.

When adults seek treatment for depression clinicians should routinely assess for the duration of anxiety, duration of depression, comorbid panic disorder, and a history of antidepressant treatment alongside depressive symptom severity. This could provide clinicians and patients with useful and desired information to elucidate prognosis and aid the clinical management of depression.

Low birth weight has been inconsistently associated with risk of developing affective disorders, including major depressive disorder (MDD). To date, studies investigating possible associations between birth weight and bipolar disorder (BD), or personality traits known to predispose to affective disorders such as neuroticism, have not been conducted in large cohorts.

To assess whether very low birth weight (<1500 g) and low birth weight (1500–2490 g) were associated with higher neuroticism scores assessed in middle age, and lifetime history of either MDD or BD. We controlled for possible confounding factors.

Retrospective cohort study using baseline data on the 83 545 UK Biobank participants with detailed mental health and birth weight data. Main outcomes were prevalent MDD and BD, and neuroticism assessed using the Eysenck Personality Inventory Neuroticism scale - Revised (EPIN-R)

Referent to normal birth weight, very low/low birth weight were associated with higher neuroticism scores, increased MDD and BD. The associations between birth weight category and MDD were partially mediated by higher neuroticism.

These findings suggest that intrauterine programming may play a role in lifetime vulnerability to affective disorders.