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Uncertainties in estimates of glacier and ice-cap contribution to sea-level rise exist in part due to poor quantification of mass-balance errors, particularly those resulting from extrapolation of sparse measurements. Centre-line data are often assumed to be representative of the glacier as a whole, with little attention paid to extrapolation errors or their effect on mass-balance estimates. Here we present detailed digital elevation model (DEM) measurements of glacier-wide elevation changes over the last ~40 years at two glaciers on Svalbard, Norwegian Arctic. Austre Br0ggerbreen and Midtre Lovenbreen are shown to have lost 27.54 ± 0.98 and 9.65 ± 0.76 × 107m3 of ice, respectively, between 1966 and 2005, findings that we relate to trends in average summer air temperatures and winter accumulation. These volume losses correspond to geodetic balances of -0.58 ± 0.03 and -0.41 ± 0.03 mw.e. a-1, respectively. Our analysis revealed high spatial complexity in patterns of elevation change, varying between glaciers, between measurement intervals and within and between elevation bins. Balances from extrapolated centre-line geodetic data were the same (within errors) as those from full-coverage DEM differencing in the majority of comparisons, yet significantly underestimated balance in three instances. Additionally, field mass balance from centre-line ablation stake data underestimated balances from full-coverage geodetic measurements during three of six measurement periods. These findings may support the hypothesis that field measurements underestimate Svalbard glacier mass loss, at least partly as a result of the failure of centre-line measurements to account for glacier-wide variations in ablation. Our results demonstrate the importance of deriving accurate interpolation functions and constraining extrapolation errors from sparse measurements.
Photogrammetric processing of archival stereo imagery offers the opportunity to reconstruct glacier volume changes for regions where no such data exist, and to better constrain the contribution to sea-level rise from small glaciers and ice caps. The ability to derive digital elevation model (DEM) measurements of glacier volume from photogrammetry relies on good-quality, well-distributed ground reference data, which may be difficult to acquire. This study shows that ground-control points (GCPs) can be identified and extracted from point-cloud airborne lidar data and used to control photogrammetric glacier models. The technique is applied to midtre Lovénbreen, a small valley glacier in northwest Svalbard. We show that the amount of ground control measured and the elevation accuracy of GCP coordinates (based on known and theoretical error considerations) has a significant effect on photogrammetric model statistics, DEM accuracy and the subsequent geodetic measurement of glacier volume change. Models controlled with fewer than 20 lidar control points or GCPs from sub-optimal areas within the swath footprint overestimated volume change by 14–53% over a 2 year period. DEMs derived from models utilizing 20–25 or more GCPs, however, gave volume change estimates within ∼4% of those from repeat lidar data (−0.51 m a−1 between 2003 and 2005). Our results have important implications for the measurement of glacier volume change from archival stereo-imagery sources.
A computer model of background and mass extinctions in a taxonomic hierarchy has been used to study the effects of different extinction patterns in a search for clues as to the causes of actual extinction events. Model taxa at four levels were built up from speciation events in adaptive space according to rules of origination which seem plausible biologically. The frequency distribution of species among the three higher taxonomic levels in the model is similar to that in living marine taxa which have good fossil records. Three mass extinction patterns were imposed on the model after species diversity had attained equilibrium (i.e., when speciation = background extinction): random; bloc (contiguous niches were cleared); and clade (all members of selected higher taxa were removed). Effects on the taxonomic profile varied with pattern. Four of the five historical mass extinctions resemble the effects of the random pattern. End-Permian families were harder hit than those in the random model, but this may be a result of an extremely high species extinction level. It is concluded that the effect of extinctions on the taxonomic hierarchy provides a tool to help in understanding extinction causes.
To describe treatment and referral patterns and National Health Service resource use in patients with chronic pain associated with low back pain or osteoarthritis, from a Primary Care perspective.
Osteoarthritis and low back pain are the two commonest debilitating causes of chronic pain, with high health and social costs, and particularly important in primary care. Understanding current practice and resource use in their management will inform health service and educational requirements and the design and optimisation of future care.
Multi-centre, retrospective, descriptive study of adults (⩾18 years) with chronic pain arising from low back pain or osteoarthritis, identified through primary care records. Five general practices in Scotland, England (two), Northern Ireland and Wales. All patients with a diagnosis of low back pain or osteoarthritis made on or before 01/09/2006 who had received three or more prescriptions for pain medication were identified and a sub-sample randomly selected then consented to an in-depth review of their medical records (n=264). Data on management of chronic pain were collected retrospectively from patients’ records for three years from diagnosis (‘newly diagnosed’ patients) or for the most recent three years (‘established’ patients).
Patients received a wide variety of pain medications with no overall common prescribing pattern. GP visits represented the majority of the resource use and ‘newly diagnosed’ patients were significantly more likely to visit their GP for pain management than ‘established’ patients. Although ‘newly diagnosed’ patients had more referrals outside the GP practice, the number of visits to secondary care for pain management was similar for both groups.
This retrospective study confirmed the complexity of managing these causes of chronic pain and the associated high resource use. It provides an in-depth picture of prescribing and referral patterns and of resource use.
Fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake is influenced by behavioural and environmental factors, but these have rarely been assessed simultaneously. We aimed to quantify the relative influence of supermarket availability, perceptions of the food environment and shopping behaviour on F&V intake.
A cross-sectional study.
Eight counties in South Carolina, USA, with verified locations of all supermarkets.
A telephone survey of 831 household food shoppers ascertained F&V intake with a seventeen-item screener, primary food store location, shopping frequency and perceptions of healthy food availability, and supermarket availability was calculated with a geographic information system. Path analysis was conducted. We report standardized beta coefficients on paths significant at the 0·05 level.
Frequency of grocery shopping at primary food store (β = 0·11) was the only factor exerting an independent, statistically significant direct effect on F&V intake. Supermarket availability was significantly associated with distance to utilized food store (β = −0·24) and shopping frequency (β = 0·10). Increased supermarket availability was significantly and positively related to perceived healthy food availability in the neighbourhood (β = 0·18) and ease of shopping access (β = 0·09). Collectively considering all model paths linked to perceived availability of healthy foods, this measure was the only other factor to have a significant total effect on F&V intake.
While the majority of the literature to date has suggested an independent and important role of supermarket availability for F&V intake, our study found only indirect effects of supermarket availability and suggests that food shopping frequency and perceptions of healthy food availability are two integral components of a network of influences on F&V intake.
The electronic properties of ThO2 single crystals were studied using x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS). The XPS results show that the Th 4f core level is in an oxidation state that is consistent with that expected for Th in ThO2. The effective Debye temperature is estimated from the temperature dependent photoemission intensities of the Th 4f core level over the temperature range of 290 to 360 K. A Debye temperature of 468±32 K has been determined.
Hydrothermal synthesis of ThO2, UxTh1-xO2, and UOx at temperatures between 670°C and 700°C has been demonstrated. Synthesis at these temperatures is 50-80°C below prior growth studies and represents a new lower bound of successful growth. ThO2 single crystals of dimensions 6.49mm x 4.89mm x 3.89 mm and weighing 0.633g have been synthesized at average growth rates near 0.125mm/week. Single crystal UxTh1-xO2 crystals with mole fractions up to x≈0.30 have also been grown. The largest alloyed crystal with mole fraction x≈0.23 has dimensions of 2.97mm x 3.23mm x ∼3mm and recorded average growth rates near 0.2mm/week. Four structures were solved from X-ray diffraction data and their crystallographic data reported here. Rocking curve analysis determined a dislocation density of 1.2×109 cm-2.