To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure email@example.com
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Observational studies show associations between low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cardiometabolic risk markers. This Mendelian randomisation study examined associations between cardiometabolic markers in children and SNP in genes related to vitamin D metabolism (DHCR7; group-specific complement (GC); cytochrome P450 subfamily IIR1 (CYP2R1); and CYP24A1) and action (CYP27B1 and VDR). In 699 healthy 8–11-year-old children, we genotyped eleven SNP. We generated a genetic risk score based on SNP associated with low 25(OH)D and investigated associations between this and blood pressure, plasma lipids and insulin. Furthermore, we examined whether SNP related to vitamin D actions modified associations between 25(OH)D and the cardiometabolic markers. All GC and CYP2R1 SNP influenced serum 25(OH)D. A risk score based on four of the six SNP was associated with 3·4 (95 % CI 2·6, 4·2) mmol/l lower 25(OH)D per risk allele (P < 0·001), but was not associated with the cardiometabolic markers. However, interactions were indicated for the three VDR SNP (Pinteraction < 0·081) on associations between 25(OH)D and TAG, systolic blood pressure and insulin, which all decreased with increasing 25(OH)D only in major allele homozygotes (β –0·02 (95 % CI –0·04, –0·01) mmol/l; β –0·5 (95 % CI –0·9, –0·1) mmHg; and β –0·5 (95 % CI –1·4, 0·3) pmol/l, respectively). In conclusion, genetic variation affected 25(OH)D substantially, but the genetic score was not associated with cardiometabolic markers in children. However, VDR polymorphisms modified associations with vitamin D, which warrants further investigation of VDR's role in the relationship between vitamin D and cardiometabolic risk.
Atmospheric emissions of nitrogen (N) from New Zealand dairy farms are significant but have the potential to be affected by manure management prior to land application. The current work examined whether reducing cattle manure dry matter (DM) from 0.16 high DM (HDM) to 0.06 low DM (LDM), to enhance infiltration and reduce ammonia (NH3) emissions when applied to grassland, would affect nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Pasture was cut, simulating grazing, and either amended with HDM (173 kg N/ha) or LDM manure (48 kg N/ha) or left unamended. Ammonia emissions from HDM manure were higher than from LDM manure, as a flux or as a percentage of total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN, i.e. NH3 + NH4+) applied, due to more TAN being retained near the soil surface and the higher soil surface pH under HDM manure treatment. Cumulative N2O emissions over 37 days from HDM plots were higher than from the control but not from the LDM plots. After 5 days, the daily N2O emission rate was larger from HDM plots than from LDM and control plots. The N2O fluxes from LDM and HDM treatments did not differ, either as a proportion of TAN applied or as a proportion of total-N applied. Increasing DM contributed to reductions in both oxygen (O2) availability and relative gas diffusivity, and thus potentially N2O production. Under the conditions of the current study, lower manure DM content reduced NH3 emissions but did not increase cumulative losses of N2O.
The aim of this study was to identify the risk correlates for coexisting common mental disorders (CMDs) in the chronic care population in South Africa, with the view to identifying particularly vulnerable patient populations.
The sample comprised 2549 chronic care patients enrolled in the baseline and endline rounds of a facility detection survey conducted by the Programme for Improving Mental Health Care in three large facilities in the Dr Kenneth Kaunda district in the North West province of South Africa. Participants were screened for depression using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9) and for alcohol misuse using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Data were analysed according to the number of morbidities, disorder type (physical or mental) and demographic variables. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more disorders (physical and/or mental).
Just over one-third of the sample reported two or more physical conditions. Women were more at risk of being depressed than were men, with men more at risk of alcohol misuse. Those who were employed were at lower risk of having coexisting CMDs, while being younger, HIV positive, and food deprived were all found to be associated with higher risk for having coexisting CMDs.
In the face of the large treatment gap for CMDs in South Africa, and the role that coexisting CMDs can play in exacerbating the burden of chronic physical diseases, mental health screening and treatment interventions should target HIV-positive, younger patients living in circumstances where there is household food insecurity.
In a longitudinal study including 642 healthy 8–11-year-old Danish children, we investigated associations between vitamin D dependent SNP and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations across a school year (August–June). Serum 25(OH)D was measured three times for every child, which approximated measurements in three seasons (autumn, winter, spring). Dietary and supplement intake, physical activity, BMI and parathyroid hormone were likewise measured at each time point. In all, eleven SNP in four vitamin D-related genes: Cytochrome P450 subfamily IIR1 (CYP2R1); 7-dehydrocholesterol reductase/nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide synthetase-1(DHCR7/NADSYN1); group-specific complement (GC); and vitamin D receptor were genotyped. We found minor alleles of CYP2R1 rs10500804, and of GC rs4588 and rs7041 to be associated with lower serum 25(OH)D concentrations across the three seasons (all P<0·01), with estimated 25(OH)D differences of −5·8 to −10·6 nmol/l from major to minor alleles homozygosity. In contrast, minor alleles homozygosity of rs10741657 and rs1562902 in CYP2R1 was associated with higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations compared with major alleles homozygosity (all P<0·001). Interestingly, the association between season and serum 25(OH)D concentrations was modified by GC rs7041 (Pinteraction=0·044), observed as absence of increase in serum 25(OH)D from winter to spring among children with minor alleles homozygous genotypes compared with the two other genotypes of rs7041 (P<0·001). Our results suggest that common genetic variants are associated with lower serum 25(OH)D concentrations across a school year. Potentially due to modified serum 25(OH)D response to UVB sunlight exposure. Further confirmation and paediatric studies investigating vitamin D-related health outcomes of these genotypic differences are needed.
Development and long-term retention of replacement beef females in a semi-arid environment are of a major concern for extensive livestock producers. Furthermore, the demand of not only producing a thriving, healthy calf, but having sufficient milk to support that first calf is essential. To address this issue, we conducted a 3-year study measuring milk production and milk constituent yields in primiparous beef heifers (n=48; 16/year reared under two different feeding regimens) raising steer calves. Cows received 1.8 or 1.2 kg/day winter supplementation for ~80 day before parturition and their heifer calves were then randomly assigned to heifer development treatments that provided ad libitum (AL) or 80% (less than ad libitum (LAL)) of ad libitum feed post weaning. Heifers developed on the AL treatment also received 1.8 kg/day winter supplementation for life, whereas heifers developed on the LAL treatment received 1.2 kg/day winter supplementation for life. Milk production of primiparous cows was measured with a portable milking machine every other week from days 27 to 125 postpartum. Milk yield for the 125-day lactation period was calculated from area under the lactation curve approximated by trapezoidal summation. The ANOVA model included in utero winter nutrition, post-weaning heifer development treatment, year and their interaction. Heifers subjected to the AL treatment reached peak milk yield ~12.3 day later (P=0.02) than heifers receiving LAL treatment. In addition, an in utero nutrition×post-weaning heifer treatment×year interaction existed (P⩽0.04) for milk peak yield, average daily milk yield (kg/day) and nutrient composition (protein, lactose, fat, solids non-fat, g/day). These interactions manifest as changes in magnitude and rank across the 3 years of the study. Livestock production in extensive environments is subject to variations in seasonal precipitation patterns and quality and quantity of grazeable forage and these fluctuations have a large impact on milk yield. In summary, the gestational nutritional environment of a heifer’s mother may interact with the heifer’s nutrient consumption during post-weaning growth and the current year to trigger variation in year-to-year milk production.
Sufficient summer/autumn vitamin D status appears important to mitigate winter nadirs at northern latitudes. We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate autumn vitamin D status and its determinants in 782 Danish 8–11-year-old children (55°N) using baseline data from the Optimal well-being, development and health for Danish children through a healthy New Nordic Diet (OPUS) School Meal Study, a large randomised controlled trial. Blood samples and demographic and behavioural data, including 7-d dietary recordings, objectively measured physical activity, and time spent outdoors during school hours, were collected during September–November. Mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was 60·8 (sd 18·7) nmol/l. Serum 25(OH)D levels ≤50 nmol/l were found in 28·4 % of the children and 2·4 % had concentrations <25 nmol/l. Upon multivariate adjustment, increasing age (per year) (β −2·9; 95 % CI −5·1, −0·7 nmol/l), female sex (β −3·3; 95 % CI −5·9, −0·7 nmol/l), sampling in October (β −5·2; 95 % CI −10·1, −0·4 nmol/l) and November (β −13·3; 95 % CI −17·7, −9·1), and non-white ethnicity (β −5·7; 95 % CI −11·1, −0·3 nmol/l) were negatively associated with 25(OH)D (all P<0·05). Likewise, immigrant/descendant background was negatively associated with 25(OH)D, particularly in females (β −16·3; 95 % CI −21·9, −10·7) (P<0·001) (Pinteraction=0·003). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (min/d) (β 0·06; 95 % CI 0·01, 0·12), outdoor walking during school hours (min/week) (β 0·4; 95 % CI 0·1, 0·6) and intake of vitamin D-containing supplements ≥3 d/week (β 8·7; 95 % CI 6·4, 11·0) were positively associated with 25(OH)D (all P<0·05). The high proportion of children with vitamin D status below the recommended sufficiency level of 50 nmol/l raises concern as levels expectedly drop further during winter months. Frequent intake of vitamin D supplements was strongly associated with status. MVPA and outdoor activity during school hours should be investigated further in interventions to improve autumn vitamin D status in children at northern latitudes.
Vitamin D status has been associated with cardiometabolic markers even in children, but the associations may be confounded by fat mass and physical activity behaviour. This study investigated associations between vitamin D status and cardiometabolic risk profile, as well as the impact of fat mass and physical activity in Danish 8–11-year-old children, using baseline data from 782 children participating in the Optimal well-being, development and health for Danish children through a healthy New Nordic Diet (OPUS) School Meal Study. We assessed vitamin D status as serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and measured blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, homoeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance, plasma lipids, inflammatory markers, anthropometry and fat mass by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and physical activity by 7 d accelerometry during August–November. Mean serum 25(OH)D was 60·8 (sd 18·7) nmol/l. Each 10 mmol/l 25(OH)D increase was associated with lower diastolic blood pressure (−0·3 mmHg, 95 % CI −0·6, −0·0) (P=0·02), total cholesterol (−0·07 mmol/l, 95 % CI −0·10, −0·05), LDL-cholesterol (−0·05 mmol/l, 95 % CI −0·08, −0·03), TAG (−0·02 mmol/l, 95 % CI −0·03, −0·01) (P≤0·001 for all lipids) and lower metabolic syndrome (MetS) score (P=0·01). Adjustment for fat mass index did not change the associations, but the association with blood pressure became borderline significant after adjustment for physical activity (P=0·06). In conclusion, vitamin D status was negatively associated with blood pressure, plasma lipids and a MetS score in Danish school children with low prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, and apart from blood pressure the associations were independent of body fat and physical activity. The potential underlying cause–effect relationship and possible long-term implications should be investigated in randomised controlled trials.
A child's diet is an important determinant for later health, growth and development. In Denmark, most children in primary school bring their own packed lunch from home and attend an after-school care institution. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the food, energy and nutrient intake of Danish school children in relation to dietary guidelines and nutrient recommendations, and to assess the food intake during and outside school hours. In total, 834 children from nine public schools located in the eastern part of Denmark were included in this cross-sectional study and 798 children (95·7 %) completed the dietary assessment sufficiently (August–November 2011). The whole diet was recorded during seven consecutive days using the Web-based Dietary Assessment Software for Children (WebDASC). Compared with the food-based dietary guidelines and nutrient recommendations, 85 % of the children consumed excess amounts of red meat, 89 % consumed too much saturated fat, and 56 % consumed too much added sugar. Additionally 35 or 91 % of the children (depending on age group) consumed insufficient amounts of fruits and vegetables, 85 % consumed insufficient amounts of fish, 86 % consumed insufficient amounts of dietary fibre, 60 or 84 % had an insufficient Fe intake (depending on age group), and 96 % had an insufficient vitamin D intake. The study also showed that there is a higher intake of fruits and bread during school hours than outside school hours; this is not the case with, for example, fish and vegetables, and future studies should investigate strategies to increase fish and vegetable intake during school hours.
Children's vitamin D intake and status can be optimised to meet recommendations. We investigated if nutritionally balanced school meals with weekly fish servings affected serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and markers related to bone in 8- to 11-year-old Danish children. We conducted an explorative secondary outcome analysis on data from 784 children from the OPUS School Meal Study, a cluster-randomised cross-over trial where children received school meals for 3 months and habitual lunch for 3 months. At baseline, and at the end of each dietary period, 25(OH)D, parathyroid hormone (PTH), osteocalcin (OC), insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), bone mineral content (BMC), bone area (BA), bone mineral density (BMD), dietary intake and physical activity were assessed. School meals increased vitamin D intake by 0·9 (95 % CI 0·7, 1·1) μg/d. No consistent effects were found on 25(OH)D, BMC, BA, BMD, IGF-1 or OC. However, season-modified effects were observed with 25(OH)D, i.e. children completing the school meal period in January/February had higher 25(OH)D status (5·5 (95 % CI 1·8, 9·2) nmol/l; P = 0·004) than children completing the control period in these months. A similar tendency was indicated in November/December (4·1 (95 % CI –0·12, 8·3) nmol/l; P = 0·057). However, the effect was opposite in March/April (–4·0 (95 % CI –7·0, –0·9) nmol/l; P = 0·010), and no difference was found in May/June (P = 0·214). Unexpectedly, the school meals slightly increased PTH (0·18 (95 % CI 0·07, 0·29) pmol/l) compared with habitual lunch. Small increases in dietary vitamin D might hold potential to mitigate the winter nadir in Danish children's 25(OH)D status while higher increases appear necessary to affect status throughout the year. More trials on effects of vitamin D intake from natural foods are needed.
Clinical and population-based studies report increased prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in individuals with anorexia nervosa and in their relatives. No nationwide study has yet been published on co-occurrence of these disorders.
To investigate comorbidity of ASD in individuals with anorexia nervosa, and aggregation of ASD and anorexia nervosa in their relatives.
In Danish registers we identified all individuals born in 1981–2008, their parents, and full and half siblings, and linked them to data on hospital admissions for psychiatric disorders.
Risk of comorbidity of ASD in probands with anorexia nervosa and aggregation of ASD in families of anorexia nervosa probands were increased. However, the risk of comorbid and familial ASD did not differ significantly from comorbid and familial major depression or any psychiatric disorder in anorexia nervosa probands.
We confirm aggregation of ASD in probands with anorexia nervosa and in their relatives; however, the relationship between anorexia nervosa and ASD appears to be non-specific.
Various foods are associated with effects against metabolic diseases such as insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes; however, their mechanisms of action are mostly unclear. Fatty acids may contribute by acting as precursors of signalling molecules or by direct activity on receptors. The medium- and long-chain NEFA receptor FFA1 (free fatty acid receptor 1, previously known as GPR40) has been linked to enhancement of glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, whereas FFA4 (free fatty acid receptor 4, previously known as GPR120) has been associated with insulin-sensitising and anti-inflammatory effects, and both receptors are reported to protect pancreatic islets and promote secretion of appetite and glucose-regulating hormones. Hypothesising that FFA1 and FFA4 mediate therapeutic effects of dietary components, we screened a broad selection of NEFA on FFA1 and FFA4 and characterised active compounds in concentration–response curves. Of the screened compounds, pinolenic acid, a constituent of pine nut oil, was identified as a relatively potent and efficacious dual FFA1/FFA4 agonist, and its suitability for further studies was confirmed by additional in vitro characterisation. Pine nut oil and free and esterified pure pinolenic acid were tested in an acute glucose tolerance test in mice. Pine nut oil showed a moderately but significantly improved glucose tolerance compared with maize oil. Pure pinolenic acid or ethyl ester gave robust and highly significant improvements of glucose tolerance. In conclusion, the present results indicate that pinolenic acid is a comparatively potent and efficacious dual FFA1/FFA4 agonist that exerts antidiabetic effects in an acute mouse model. The compound thus deserves attention as a potential active dietary ingredient to prevent or counteract metabolic diseases.
There is limited evidence on the acceptability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of task-sharing interventions to narrow the treatment gap for mental disorders in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this article is to describe the rationale, aims and methods of the Africa Focus on Intervention Research for Mental health (AFFIRM) collaborative research hub. AFFIRM is investigating strategies for narrowing the treatment gap for mental disorders in sub-Saharan Africa in four areas. First, it is assessing the feasibility, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of task-sharing interventions by conducting randomised controlled trials in Ethiopia and South Africa. The AFFIRM Task-sharing for the Care of Severe mental disorders (TaSCS) trial in Ethiopia aims to determine the acceptability, affordability, effectiveness and sustainability of mental health care for people with severe mental disorder delivered by trained and supervised non-specialist, primary health care workers compared with an existing psychiatric nurse-led service. The AFFIRM trial in South Africa aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of a task-sharing counselling intervention for maternal depression, delivered by non-specialist community health workers, and to examine factors influencing the implementation of the intervention and future scale up. Second, AFFIRM is building individual and institutional capacity for intervention research in sub-Saharan Africa by providing fellowship and mentorship programmes for candidates in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Each year five Fellowships are awarded (one to each country) to attend the MPhil in Public Mental Health, a joint postgraduate programme at the University of Cape Town and Stellenbosch University. AFFIRM also offers short courses in intervention research, and supports PhD students attached to the trials in Ethiopia and South Africa. Third, AFFIRM is collaborating with other regional National Institute of Mental Health funded hubs in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, by designing and executing shared research projects related to task-sharing and narrowing the treatment gap. Finally, it is establishing a network of collaboration between researchers, non-governmental organisations and government agencies that facilitates the translation of research knowledge into policy and practice. This article describes the developmental process of this multi-site approach, and provides a narrative of challenges and opportunities that have arisen during the early phases. Crucial to the long-term sustainability of this work is the nurturing and sustaining of partnerships between African mental health researchers, policy makers, practitioners and international collaborators.
John Bryden, Professor, University of Aberdeen and Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute,Lesley Riddoch, Director, Nordic Horizons,Ottar Brox, Senior Researcher, Norwegian Institute of Urban and Regional Research
NORWAY–BRITAIN RELATIONS AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR
In the autumn of 1956, the Norwegian Prime Minister, Einar Gerhardsen, and his wife Werna were invited to the United Kingdom for an official visit. The invitation was a direct consequence of the Gerhardsens having paid a State visit to the Soviet Union the year before. British sources reported that the Norwegian premier had been much taken in by the Soviet system, hence the invitation to London to counteract these impressions and influences and to strengthen Norway's adherence to the Atlantic alliance. The Norwegian premier had strongly indicated that he saw himself as a kind of bridge-builder between the East and the West. Gerhardsen belonged to the Norwegian Labour Party, Arbeiderpartiet, which had excellent relations with its British counterpart Labour. But Labour had been out of power since 1951. The Conservative government in Britain wanted to strengthen and maintain good relations with Norway, also to show that the Tories had no intention of dismantling the British welfare state, but rather to maintain and strengthen it. The planners in London took great care to showcase for Gerhardsen different aspects of the successful British welfare state. Interestingly, apart from these more general considerations, the absence of genuine Anglo–Norwegian relations is striking. The interlocutors simply did not have much in common or much to talk about. But this is not only the case for 1956, for the whole period under consideration here there was little in terms of real-life alliance politics and relations, despite much official rhetoric to the contrary.
It was standard operating procedure in Whitehall that prior to State visits, the Foreign Office mandarins provided background material and briefing papers for the ministers. This material routinely consisted of a summary of the most important bilateral relations between the United Kingdom and the country of origin for the visiting head of state, a discussion and analysis of the state of affairs, and suggestions for the politicians on how to handle the issues. Going through the material in the National Archives in Kew, it is quite astonishing that there are hardly any Anglo–Norwegian issues that should warrant high-level political discussions.
It is widely assumed that nutrition can improve school performance in children; however, evidence remains limited and inconclusive. In the present study, we investigated whether serving healthy school meals influenced concentration and school performance of 8- to 11-year-old Danish children. The OPUS (Optimal well-being, development and health for Danish children through a healthy New Nordic Diet) School Meal Study was a cluster-randomised, controlled, cross-over trial comparing a healthy school meal programme with the usual packed lunch from home (control) each for 3 months (NCT 01457794). The d2 test of attention, the Learning Rating Scale (LRS) and standard tests on reading and mathematics proficiency were administered at baseline and at the end of each study period. Intervention effects were evaluated using hierarchical mixed models. The school meal intervention did not influence concentration performance (CP; primary outcome, n 693) or processing speed; however, the decrease in error percentage was 0·18 points smaller (P< 0·001) in the intervention period than in the control period (medians: baseline 2·03 %; intervention 1·46 %; control 1·37 %). In contrast, the intervention increased reading speed (0·7 sentence, P= 0·009) and the number of correct sentences (1·8 sentences, P< 0·001), which corresponded to 11 and 25 %, respectively, of the effect of one school year. The percentage of correct sentences also improved (P< 0·001), indicating that the number correct improved relatively more than reading speed. There was no effect on overall math performance or outcomes from the LRS. In conclusion, school meals did not affect CP, but improved reading performance, which is a complex cognitive activity that involves inference, and increased errors related to impulsivity and inattention. These findings are worth examining in future trials.
An increasing number of children are exhibiting features of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) including abdominal fatness, hypertension, adverse lipid profile and insulin resistance. Healthy eating practices during school hours may improve the cardiometabolic profile, but there is a lack of evidence. In the present study, the effect of provision of school meals rich in fish, vegetables and fibre on a MetS score (primary outcome) and on individual cardiometabolic markers and body composition (secondary outcomes) was investigated in 834 Danish school children. The study was carried out as a cluster-randomised, controlled, non-blinded, cross-over trial at nine schools. Children aged 8–11 years received freshly prepared school lunch and snacks or usual packed lunch from home (control) each for 3 months. Dietary intake, physical activity, cardiometabolic markers and body composition were measured at baseline and after each dietary period. The school meals did not affect the MetS score (P= 1·00). However, it was found that mean arterial pressure was reduced by 0·4 (95 % CI 0·0, 0·8) mmHg (P= 0·04), fasting total cholesterol concentrations by 0·05 (95 % CI 0·02, 0·08) mmol/l (P= 0·001), HDL-cholesterol concentrations by 0·02 (95 % CI 0·00, 0·03) mmol/l, TAG concentrations by 0·02 (95 % CI 0·00, 0·04) mmol/l (both P< 0·05), and homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance by 0·10 (95 % CI 0·04, 0·16) points (P= 0·001) compared with the control diet in the intention-to-treat analyses. Waist circumference increased 0·5 (95 % CI 0·3, 0·7) cm (P< 0·001), but BMI z-score remained unaffected. Complete-case analyses and analyses adjusted for household educational level, pubertal status and physical activity confirmed the results. In conclusion, the school meals did not affect the MetS score in 8–11-year-olds, as small improvements in blood pressure, TAG concentrations and insulin resistance were counterbalanced by slight undesired effects on waist circumference and HDL-cholesterol concentrations.
This longitudinal study considers externalizing behavior problems from ages 5 to 27 (N = 585). Externalizing problem ratings by mothers, fathers, teachers, peers, and self-report were modeled with growth curves. Risk and protective factors across many different domains and time frames were included as predictors of the trajectories. A major contribution of the study is in demonstrating how heterotypic continuity and changing measures can be handled in modeling changes in externalizing behavior over long developmental periods. On average, externalizing problems decreased from early childhood to preadolescence, increased during adolescence, and decreased from late adolescence to adulthood. There was strong nonlinear continuity in externalizing problems over time. Family process, peer process, stress, and individual characteristics predicted externalizing problems beyond the strong continuity of externalizing problems. The model accounted for 70% of the variability in the development of externalizing problems. The model's predicted values showed moderate sensitivity and specificity in prediction of arrests, illegal drug use, and drunk driving. Overall, the study showed that by using changing, developmentally relevant measures and simultaneously taking into account numerous characteristics of children and their living situations, research can model lengthy spans of development and improve predictions of the development of later, severe externalizing problems.