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Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth.
LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables.
Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%.
These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.
The time-varying flow in which fluid is withdrawn from or added to a reservoir of infinite or arbitrary finite depth through a point sink or source of variable strength beneath a free surface is considered. Backed up by some analytic work, a numerical method is used, and the results are compared with previous work on steady and unsteady flows. In the case of withdrawal for an impulsively started flow, it is found that the critical flow rate increases with reservoir depth, although it changes little as the depth increases beyond double the sink submergence depth. The largest flow rate at which steady solutions can evolve in source flows follows a similar pattern although at a considerably higher value. Simulations indicate that some of the previously calculated steady state solutions at higher flow rates may be unstable, if they exist at all.
To evaluate the reliability and validity of the FFQ administered to participants in the follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), and to provide calibration coefficients.
A random sample stratified by country of birth, age, sex and BMI was selected from MCCS participants. Participants completed two FFQ and three 24 h recalls over 1 year. Reliability was evaluated by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Validity coefficients (VC) were estimated from structural equation models and calibration coefficients obtained from regression calibration models.
Adults born in Australia, Greece or Italy.
Nine hundred and sixty-five participants consented to the study; of these, 459 participants were included in the reliability analyses and 615 in the validity and calibration analyses.
The FFQ showed good repeatability for twenty-three nutrients with ICC ranging from 0·66 to 0·80 for absolute nutrient intakes for Australian-born and from 0·51 to 0·74 for Greek/Italian-born. For Australian-born, VC ranged from 0·46 (monounsaturated fat) to 0·83 (Ca) for nutrient densities, comparing well with other studies. For Greek/Italian-born, VC were between 0·21 (Na) and 0·64 (riboflavin). Calibration coefficients for nutrient densities ranged from 0·39 (retinol) to 0·74 (Mg) for Australian-born and from 0·18 (Zn) to 0·54 (riboflavin) for Greek/Italian-born.
The FFQ used in the MCCS follow-up study is suitable for estimating energy-adjusted nutrients for Australian-born participants. However, its performance for estimating intakes is poorer for southern European migrants and alternative dietary assessment methods ought to be considered if dietary data are to be measured in similar demographic groups.
The steady, axisymmetric flow induced by a point sink (or source) submerged in an inviscid fluid of infinite depth is computed and the resulting deformation of the free surface is obtained. The effect of surface tension on the free surface is determined and is the new component of this work. The maximum Froude numbers at which steady solutions exist are computed. It is found that the determining factor in reaching the critical flow changes as more surface tension is included. If there is zero or a very small amount of surface tension, the limiting factor appears to be the formation of small wavelets on the free surface; but, as the surface tension increases, this is replaced by a tendency for the lowest point on the free surface to descend sharply as the Froude number is increased.
The steady, axisymmetric flow induced by a point sink (or source) submerged in an
unbounded inviscid fluid is computed. The resulting deformation of the free surface
is obtained, and a limit of steady solutions is found that is quite different to
those obtained in past work. More accurate solutions indicate that the old limiting
flow rate was too high and, in fact, the breakdown of steady solutions at a lower
flow rate is characterized by the appearance of spurious wavelets at the free
Human campylobacteriosis exhibits a distinctive seasonality in temperate regions. This paper aims to identify the origins of this seasonality. Clinical isolates [typed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)] and epidemiological data were collected from Scotland. Young rural children were found to have an increased burden of disease in the late spring due to strains of non-chicken origin (e.g. ruminant and wild bird strains from environmental sources). In contrast the adult population had an extended summer peak associated with chicken strains. Travel abroad and UK mainland travel were associated with up to 17% and 18% of cases, respectively. International strains were associated with chicken, had a higher diversity than indigenous strains and a different spectrum of MLST types representative of these countries. Integrating empirical epidemiology and molecular subtyping can successfully elucidate the seasonal components of human campylobacteriosis. The findings will enable public health officials to focus strategies to reduce the disease burden.
The steady axisymmetric flow induced by a ring sink (or source) submerged in an unbounded inviscid fluid is computed and the resulting deformation of the free surface is obtained. Solutions are obtained analytically in the limit of small Froude number (and hence small surface deformation) and numerically for the full nonlinear problem. The small Froude number solutions are found to have the property that if the non-dimensional radius of the ring sink is less than , there is a central stagnation point on the surface surrounded by a dip which rises to the stagnation level in the far distance. However, as the radius of the ring sink increases beyond , a surface stagnation ring forms and moves outward as the ring sink radius increases. It is also shown that as the radius of the sink increases, the solutions in the vicinity of the ring sink/source change continuously from those due to a point sink/source () to those due to a line sink/source (). These properties are confirmed by the numerical solutions to the full nonlinear equations for finite Froude numbers. At small values of the Froude number and sink or source radius, the nonlinear solutions look like the approximate solutions, but as the flow rate increases a limiting maximum Froude number solution with a secondary stagnation ring is obtained. At large values of sink or source radius, however, this ring does not form and there is no obvious physical reason for the limit on solutions. The maximum Froude numbers at which steady solutions exist for each radius are computed.
This paper addresses issues in the theory of field-induced electron emission. First, it summarises our present understanding of the theory of Fowler-Nordheim (FN) plots, and shows the relationship between a recent precise (in standard FN theory) approach to the interpretation of the FN-plot intercept and older approximate approaches. Second, it comments on the interpretation of FN plots taken from semiconductor field emitters. Third, it summarises the main points of a recent hypothesis about the mechanism of field-induced emission from carbonbased films and other electrically nanostructured heterogeneous (ENH) materials. Weaknesses in previous hypotheses are noted. It is hypothesised that thin films of all ENH materials, when deposited on a conducting substrate, will emit electrons in appropriate circumstances. Such films emit electrons at low macroscopic fields because they contain conducting nanostructure inside them: this structure generates sufficient geometrical field enhancement near the film/vacuum interface that more-or-less normal Fowler-Nordheim emission can occur. In connection with experiments on amorphous carbon films carried out by a group in Fribourg, it is shown that nanostructure of the size measured by scanning probe techniques should be able to generate field enhancement of the size measured in field electron spectroscopy experiments. This result provides a quantitative corroboration of other work suggesting that emission from amorphous carbon films is primarily due to geometrical field enhancement by nanostructures inside the film. Some counter-arguments to the internal-field-enhancement hypothesis are considered and disposed of. Some advantages of ENH materials as broad-area field emission electron sources are noted; these include control of material design.
During a 15-month period in Scotland a small but important number of human Campylobacter cases (3·2%) arose from 91 putative household outbreaks. Of the 26 outbreaks with known strain composition, 89% were composed of the same MLST which supports the potential use of MLST in public health epidemiology. The number of cases associated with household outbreaks is much larger than general outbreaks and there is some evidence to indicate that there may be secondary transmission, although this is relatively rare.
An estimate of the benefits which would result from a ban on the sale of non-pasteurized milk in Scotland has been assessed by costing a recent outbreak of milk-borne salmonellosis in the Grampian Region.
The cost of such a ban would not exceed the benefits under any but the most severe assumptions about the values attached to intangible benefits
A method for typing Haemophilus species is described, based on the analysis of genomic DNA from Haemophilus parainfluenzae. The DNA was extracted by a rapid method and digested with the restriction enzyme BamHI to provide a characteristic ‘fingerprint’. The pattern of fragments in the ranges 1–1·6 kb, 1·6–2 kb and 2–3 kb were used to produce a numerical profile of each isolate. In total 97 isolates were examined; 88 from throat swab material isolated from the 15 members of a British Antarctic Survey base and 9 type strains. Seventy-two of the 88 antarctic isolates were H. parainfluenzae and were found to be very diverse, comprising 41 identifiable strains with up to 5 strains being isolated from a single throat swab sample. There was evidence for both carriage and transmission within the isolated community. The technique provided a highly discriminatory method for characterizing Haemophilus strains which is suitable for epidemiological studies.
Using ideal, one-dimensional MHD equations, numerical and analytic solutions are presented which describe the nonlinear behaviour of an imploding current sheet in a low-fl plasma. Initially the current density is uniformly distributed in asheet of finite thickness, and the Lorentz force tending to pinch the plasma together is unopposed by any fluid pressure force. As the implosion develops the current density in the sheet is concentrated into a thin layer at the centre of the sheet, and both the current density and the current in this layer become infinite in a finite time if β = 0. At the moment this occurs, fast-mode shocks are produced which propagate outward from the centre of the current sheet, and as the shocks move away an infinitely thin current sheet is left behind. Although the solutions are related to electric discharges, they are also closely related to a problem posed by Dungey concerning the evolution of a uniformly distributed current in the vicinity of an X-type magnetic neutral line. The implications of these solutions for Dungey's problemare discussed.
An important aspect of pre-flare current sheets in the solar atmosphere is the sudden enhancement of the effective electrical resistivity in the sheet due to the onset of a plasma micro-instability. Numerical and analytical solutions to the isothermal MHD equations are here presented that describe the evolution of a current sheet subsequent to such an enhancement in the resistivity. The solutions show that, if the initial width of the current sheet is less than the acoustic-diffusion length obtained by dividing the resistivity by the sound speed, then isomagnetic shocks are formed. These shocks propagate outward from the the centre of the current sheet and are transformed into fast-mode magneto-acoustic waves when they reach the edges of the current sheet. The fast-mode waves thus formed continue to propagate outward beyond the confines of the current sheet. In contrast to a previous study by Cheng, the present solutions demonstrate that flow speeds several times greater than the local fast-mode wave speed can be produced if the plasma beta parameter and the initial sheet width are sufficiently small. The results may be relevant to the triggering of a solar flare, as in the emerging flux model of flares.
Following Dungey's original magnetohydrodynamic formulation, a solution is obtained for the nonlinear evolution of a current discharge in the vicinity of a magnetic neutral line. For an ideal gas with constant conductivity and uniform mass density we obtain a particular exact solution in the limit of an initial, nearly sheet-like configuration. This particular solution implies special boundary conditions for the pressure and electric field at the surface of the conductor. If These conditions are not met, then the solution eventually breaks down before the current density becomes infinite. The time required for complete breakdown is determined by the wave propagation times from the surface of the fluid to the neutral line and by the diffusion time for the magnetic field through the fluid. For large conductivity and a small sound speed, the maximum current density achieved at the time of the solution's complete breakdown depends upon the ratio of the characteristic diffusion time to the Alfvén wave propagation time. In the limit of infinite conductivity or infinite extension of the fluid, the current density along the neutral line becomes infinite at π/23/2 times the Alfvénic scale time. At this same time the inflow Alfvenic Mach number approaches 21/2i while the outflow Alfvenic Mach number approaches infinity.
Numerical solutions were obtained by Forbes, Priest & Hood (1982) for the resistive decay of a current sheet in an MHD fluid. To check the accuracy of the numerical solutions, a linear, analytical solution was also deived for the regime where diffusion is dominant. In a subsequent reinvestigation of this problem an error in the linear, analytical solution has been discovered. For the parameter values used in the numerical solution this error is too small (≲ 2%) to produce any significant change in the previous test comparison between the numerical and analytical solutions. However, for parameter values much different from those used in the numerical solution, the error in the linear solution can be significant.
The unsteady axisymmetric withdrawal from a fluid with a free surface through a point sink is considered. Results both with and without surface tension are included and placed in context with previous work. The results indicate that there are two critical values of withdrawal rate at which the surface is drawn directly into the outlet, one after flow initiation and the other after the flow has been established. It is shown that the larger of these values corresponds to the point at which steady solutions no longer exist.