This article examines the fertility desires, intentions and outcomes of 406 alumni of a middle school in Dalian city, Liaoning province, when they were surveyed in 2014–2015 (during their late 20s and early 30s). It also looks at how and why the fertility desires, plans and outcomes of a 47-member representative subsample and their spouses changed from year to year as they moved through their 20s and 30s between 2008 and 2021. Although most respondents started out wanting two children, longitudinal interviews with the representative subsample and their spouses showed that most gradually resigned themselves to having no more than one child. This was because they felt unable to provide two children with the high standard of living and childcare that their own experiences as singletons had led them to consider essential for proper childrearing.

This article analyses temperature data for Seoul based on a well defined daily average temperature (DAT) derived from records dating from 1954 to 2009, and considers related weather derivatives using a previous methodology. The temperature data exhibit some quite distinctive features, compared to other cities that have been considered before. Thus Seoul has: (i) four clear seasons; (ii) a significant seasonal range, with high temperature and humidity in the summer but low temperature and very dry weather in winter; and (iii) cycles of three cold days and four warmer days in winter. Due to these characteristics, seasonal variance and oscillation in Seoul is more apparent in winter and less evident in summer than in the other cities. We construct a deterministic model for the average temperature and then simulate future weather patterns, before pricing various weather derivative options and calculating the market price of risk (MPR).