Severe COVID-19 cases place immediate pressure on hospital resources. To assess this, we analysed survival duration in the first 39 fatal cases in Wuhan, China. Time from onset and hospitalization to death declined rapidly, from ~40 to 7 days, and ~25 to 4 days, respectively, in the outbreak’s first month.

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

The Reformation in Ireland has traditionally been seen as an unmitigated failure. This article contributes to current scholarship that is challenging this perception by conceiving the sixteenth-century Irish Church as part of the English Church. It does so by examining the episcopal career of John Bale, bishop of Ossory, County Kilkenny, 1552–3. Bale wrote an account of his Irish experience, known as the Vocacyon, soon after fleeing his diocese upon the accession of Queen Mary to the English throne and the subsequent restoration of Roman Catholicism. The article considers Bale's episcopal career as an expression of the relationship between Church and state in mid-Tudor England and Ireland. It will be shown that ecclesiastical reform in Ireland was complemented by political subjugation, and vice versa. Having been appointed by Edward VI, Bale upheld the royal supremacy as justification for implementing ecclesiastical reform. The combination of preaching the gospel and enforcing the 1552 Prayer Book was, for Bale, the best method of evangelism. The double effect was to win converts and align the Irish Church with the English form of worship. Hence English reformers exploited the political dominance of England to export their evangelical faith into Ireland.

For many regions, glacier inaccessibility results in sparse geometric datasets for use as model initial conditions (e.g. along the central flowline only). In these cases, two-dimensional (2-D) flowline models are often used to study glacier dynamics. Here we systematically investigate the applicability of a 2-D, first-order Stokes approximation flowline model (FLM), modified by shape factors, for the simulation of land-terminating glaciers by comparing it with a 3-D, ‘full’-Stokes ice-flow model (FSM). Based on steady-state and transient, thermomechanically uncoupled and coupled computational experiments, we explore the sensitivities of the FLM and FSM to ice geometry, temperature and forward model integration time. We find that, compared to the FSM, the FLM generally produces slower horizontal velocities, due to simplifications inherent to the FLM and to the underestimation of the shape factor. For polythermal glaciers, those with temperate ice zones, or when basal sliding is important, we find significant differences between simulation results when using the FLM versus the FSM. Over time, initially small differences between the FLM and FSM become much larger, particularly near cold/temperate ice transition surfaces. Long time integrations further increase small initial differences between the two models. We conclude that the FLM should be applied with caution when modelling glacier changes under a warming climate or over long periods of time.

The incidence of dizygotic (Dz) twinning can be used as an index of natural human fertility. A retrospective study was done at The Royal Women's Hospital, Australia, to see whether the dizygotic to monozygotic (Mz) twinning ratio from one hospital can accurately reflect the national incidence of Dz twinning. The yearly twinning incidence from 1947–1997 was expressed as a Dz:Mz ratio, standardised for maternal age and plotted against previously published national statistics. The proportion of mothers born in Asia (of both singleton and multiples) between 1983–1997 was analysed to see whether different racial mixes might influence twinning trends. There were 5275 twins born of known sex and maternal age between 1947–1997. The agestandardised Dz:Mz ratio increased non-significantly from 1.39 in 1947 to 2.29 in 1953 (P = 0.08), underwent a significant decline to 0.73 in 1977, then remained stable until 1997 (P > 0.05). The same trends were also apparent when the data was pooled into 2-year groups with the increase from 1947/48–1953/54 becoming highly significant (P < 0.009). These trends observed in the hospital-based data were in close agreement with those found in the national statistics, with the exception of a rise in 1977–1982 only reflected in the Australia-wide data. In 1993, 2.6% of mothers were born in Asian countries; by 1997, this had risen to 10.6%. We found that the Dz:Mz ratio from one hospital closely reflects national twinning trends. Prospective studies must account for race, and would need around 200–300 twin pairs per year to minimise fluctuations of the ratio. Twin Research (2000) 3, 12–16.

Current ultrasound techniques can accurately determine the chorionicity of twins, but not zygosity. We previously proposed that the zygosity of spontaneously conceived twins can be determined at early ultrasound, where 2 corpora lutea infers dizygosity, and 1 implies monozygosity. Here we did a case series, comparing zygosity predicted using this method with definitive DNA genotyping of twins after birth. We retrospectively identified 14 ultrasound reports of spontaneous twin pregnancies at 6(+0 days) to 13+6 weeks' gestation, where both ovaries were seen and the number of corpora lutea documented. We visited all twin pairs, obtained buccal smears, and determined zygosity by genotyping 9 independent microsatellite markers. All 8 cases where 2 corpora lutea were seen were dizygotic pregnancies. One further case where 3 corpora lutea were seen was also dizygotic. All 3 sets of monozygotic twins had 1 corpus luteum. There were 2 cases incorrectly assigned, where 1 corpus luteum was seen in dizygotic pregnancies. We conclude if 2 corpora lutea are seen at a first trimester ultrasound of spontaneously conceived dichorionic twins, they appear to be almost certainly dizygotic. However, if 1 corpus luteum is seen in dichorionic twins, zygosity cannot be determined with certainty since it is either monozygotic, or dizygotic where a second corpus luteum has been missed.

Twins achieved through in-vitro fertilisation often undergo a viability ultrasound at 6–9 weeks of gestation. The presence of inter-twin crown-rump length discordance at this stage is not an uncommon finding; however the clinical significance of this is unknown. We analyzed 218 dichorionic twin pregnancies, producing two live fetuses > 24 weeks gestation, to determine whether inter-twin discordance (≥ 85th centile) in the mid-first trimester was associated with birthweight discordance (> 20%), or small for gestational age (< 10th centile). The incidence of birthweight discordance and small for gestational age infants were determined, with no increased risk found for the discordant population. This may provide some reassurance to treating clinicians.