Macrofossils from woodrat (Neotoma) middens serve as an important proxy for reconstructing past vegetation in arid and semiarid regions of North America. The presence/absence of plant macrofossils in middens can provide valuable information on temporal and spatial patterns of plant migration and range boundaries. The primary aim of this study was to determine how local plant abundance, distance of plant populations from midden sites, and species population density on the landscape affect the probability of occurrence of macrofossils in middens. The study was designed with the primary intent of determining the reliability of middens in detecting scattered populations of Pinus ponderosa. We analyzed macrofossil assemblages from 42 modern woodrat middens from West Carrizo Canyon in southeastern Colorado, near the current eastern range margin of Pinus ponderosa. We compared midden contents with composition of the surrounding vegetation, measuring distance from the midden to the nearest individual of selected plant species, and the percent cover of each species within 30 m of the midden. We used this information to model the probability of species presence in a midden across a range of population densities on the landscape. Macrofossils of Juniperus spp., Quercus gambelii, and Opuntia spp. were consistently found in middens regardless of their local abundance in vegetation, although populations occurred within 30 m of all middens. Pinus edulis and P. ponderosa occurred in nearly all middens within 20–30 m of individual trees. P. ponderosa was rare in middens >20–30 m away from individual trees. Results of a simple simulation model suggest that middens become absolutely reliable indicators of P. ponderosa presence on the landscape only when average tree density exceeds 50 stems ha−1. Woodrats reliably collected macrofossils of Pinus edulis, P. ponderosa, Juniperus spp., Quercus gambelii, and Opuntia spp. when populations of these taxa occur within 20–30 m of a midden site. Woodrats did not collect P. ponderosa when the nearest individuals were more than 30 m away. Low-density populations of these and other species may be difficult to detect in fossil woodrat-midden series owing to reduced probability that individuals grow within foraging distance of the middens. Data from this and similar studies can be used to construct and parameterize a forward model of macrofossil representation in woodrat middens.

Late Quaternary reflooding of the Persian Gulf climaxed with the mid-Holocene highstand previously variously dated between 6 and 3.4 ka. Examination of the stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental context of a mid-Holocene whale beaching allows us to accurately constrain the timing of the transgressive, highstand and regressive phases of the mid- to late Holocene sea-level highstand in the Persian Gulf. Mid-Holocene transgression of the Gulf surpassed today's sea level by 7100–6890 cal yr BP, attaining a highstand of > 1 m above current sea level shortly after 5290–4570 cal yr BP before falling back to current levels by 1440–1170 cal yr BP. The cetacean beached into an intertidal hardground pond during the transgressive phase (5300–4960 cal yr BP) with continued transgression interring the skeleton in shallow-subtidal sediments. Subsequent relative sea-level fall produced a forced regression with consequent progradation of the coastal system. These new ages refine previously reported timings for the mid- to late Holocene sea-level highstand published for other regions. By so doing, they allow us to constrain the timing of this correlatable global eustatic event more accurately.

Volcanic eruptions commonly produce buoyant ash-laden plumes that rise through the stratified atmosphere. On reaching their level of neutral buoyancy, these plumes cease rising and transition to horizontally spreading intrusions. Such intrusions occur widely in density-stratified fluid environments, and in this paper we develop a shallow-layer model that governs their motion. We couple this dynamical model to a model for particle transport and sedimentation, to predict both the time-dependent distribution of ash within volcanic intrusions and the flux of ash that falls towards the ground. In an otherwise quiescent atmosphere, the intrusions spread axisymmetrically. We find that the buoyancy-inertial scalings previously identified for continuously supplied axisymmetric intrusions are not realised by solutions of the governing equations. By calculating asymptotic solutions to our model we show that the flow is not self-similar, but is instead time-dependent only in a narrow region at the front of the intrusion. This non-self-similar behaviour results in the radius of the intrusion growing with time $t$ as $t^{3/4}$ , rather than $t^{2/3}$ as suggested previously. We also identify a transition to drag-dominated flow, which is described by a similarity solution with radial growth now proportional to $t^{5/9}$ . In the presence of an ambient wind, intrusions are not axisymmetric. Instead, they are predominantly advected downstream, while at the same time spreading laterally and thinning vertically due to persistent buoyancy forces. We show that close to the source, this lateral spreading is in a buoyancy-inertial regime, whereas far downwind, the horizontal buoyancy forces that drive the spreading are balanced by drag. Our results emphasise the important role of buoyancy-driven spreading, even at large distances from the source, in the formation of the flowing thin horizontally extensive layers of ash that form in the atmosphere as a result of volcanic eruptions.

Hospital evacuations that occur during, or as a result of, infrastructure outages are complicated and demanding. Loss of infrastructure services can initiate a chain of events with corresponding management challenges. This report describes a modeling case study of the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital in Houston, Texas (USA). The study uses a model designed to track such cascading events following loss of infrastructure services and to identify the staff, resources, and operational adaptations required to sustain patient care and/or conduct an evacuation. The model is based on the assumption that a hospital’s primary mission is to provide necessary medical care to all of its patients, even when critical infrastructure services to the hospital and surrounding areas are disrupted. Model logic evaluates the hospital’s ability to provide an adequate level of care for all of its patients throughout a period of disruption. If hospital resources are insufficient to provide such care, the model recommends an evacuation. Model features also provide information to support evacuation and resource allocation decisions for optimizing care over the entire population of patients. This report documents the application of the model to a scenario designed to resemble the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital, demonstrating the model’s ability to recreate the timeline of an actual evacuation. The model is also applied to scenarios demonstrating how its output can inform evacuation planning activities and timing.

Vugrin ED , Verzi SJ , Finley PD , Turnquist MA , Griffin AR , Ricci KA , Wyte-Lake T . Modeling Evacuation of a Hospital without Electric Power. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2015;30(3):1-9