This paper investigates hedge funds’ ability to time industry-specific returns and shows that funds’ timing ability in the manufacturing industry improves their future performance, probability of survival, and ability to attract more capital. The results indicate that the best industry-timing hedge funds in the manufacturing sector have the highest return exposure to earnings surprises. This, together with persistently sticky earnings surprises, transparent information environment in regards to earnings releases, and large post-earnings-announcement drift in the manufacturing industry, explain to a great extent why best-timing hedge funds can generate significantly larger future returns compared to worst-timing hedge funds.

The rate at which young children are directly spoken to varies due to many factors, including (a) caregiver ideas about children as conversational partners and (b) the organization of everyday life. Prior work suggests cross-cultural variation in rates of child-directed speech is due to the former factor, but has been fraught with confounds in comparing postindustrial and subsistence farming communities. We investigate the daylong language environments of children (0;0–3;0) on Rossel Island, Papua New Guinea, a small-scale traditional community where prior ethnographic study demonstrated contingency-seeking child interaction styles. In fact, children were infrequently directly addressed and linguistic input rate was primarily affected by situational factors, though children's vocalization maturity showed no developmental delay. We compare the input characteristics between this community and a Tseltal Mayan one in which near-parallel methods produced comparable results, then briefly discuss the models and mechanisms for learning best supported by our findings.

Although there is some evidence that duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is geographically stable, few have examined whether the phenomenon is temporally stable. We examined DUP in two cohorts within two discrete time periods (1995–1999 and 2003–2005) spanning a decade in the same geographically defined community psychiatric service with no early intervention programme. Patients were diagnosed by Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID) and we determined the DUP using the Beiser Scale. The DUP of the 240 participants did not differ significantly between study periods.

Low intensity subsistence agriculture is generally believed to be less damaging to wildlife than intensive farming. As Myanmar is undergoing rapid modernization, subsistence farming may shift to intensive agriculture, resulting in increased threats to species of conservation concern such as the green peafowl Pavo muticus. Here we investigate habitat use of the green peafowl in a low intensity agricultural landscape surrounding a small forest fragment in southern Shan State, Myanmar. The forest belongs to Nan Kone Buddha Monastery and the green peafowl is protected from hunting in the area on the basis of religious beliefs. We established three survey transects with a total length of 3,414 m. During February 2016–January 2017 we conducted surveys twice daily for 4 consecutive days every month, walking all transects in both directions in the mornings and afternoons and recording visual and auditory peafowl encounters. We estimated peafowl density to be 2.63 animals/km2 in the less disturbed western part of the study area and 1.13 animals/km2 in the eastern part, which had higher levels of human disturbance. The peafowl's habitat use was significantly non-random, with forest patches being the most utilized habitat, followed by croplands. Within a 300 m buffer zone around the forest patch, the order of habitat preference was crop > scrub > fallow, with crop significantly preferred over the other two habitats. We conclude that preserved isolated forest blocks adjacent to community-managed agricultural areas are important for green peafowl conservation, and discuss the implications for long-term conservation management of the species.

Thirty-two percent of bird species in South-East Asia are likely to become extinct by the end of this century. However, due to a lack of data this number may be an underestimate. The Chestnut-headed Partridge Arborophila cambodiana found in south-west Cambodia’s Cardamom Mountain range is a largely unknown potentially at-risk species. We used line transects and camera traps to survey A. cambodiana in four protected areas in the Cardamom Mountains to estimate population densities. We also assessed their current distribution range and broad scale habitat changes from 1996 to 2016. We found A. cambodiana in evergreen and semi-evergreen forest at a density of 1.23 calling males/km2, and at altitudes above 400 m and where the slope was between 11 and 43o. From 1996 to 2016 A. cambodiana’s potential habitat decreased by 11%, whilst the total evergreen forest cover in the Cardamom Mountains decreased by 20%. A. cambodiana has a very restricted range within which the habitat has been fragmented. Compounded by human disturbance and development activities that negatively affect the species, we suggest a revision of its IUCN Red List status from ‘Least Concern’ to ‘Near Threatened’ as it partially meets a range of threatened Red List species criteria.

How do people answer polar questions? In this fourteen-language study of answers to questions in conversation, we compare the two main strategies; first, interjection-type answers such as uh-huh (or equivalents yes, mm, head nods, etc.), and second, repetition-type answers that repeat some or all of the question. We find that all languages offer both options, but that there is a strong asymmetry in their frequency of use, with a global preference for interjection-type answers. We propose that this preference is motivated by the fact that the two options are not equivalent in meaning. We argue that interjection-type answers are intrinsically suited to be the pragmatically unmarked, and thus more frequent, strategy for confirming polar questions, regardless of the language spoken. Our analysis is based on the semantic-pragmatic profile of the interjection-type and repetition-type answer strategies, in the context of certain asymmetries inherent to the dialogic speech act structure of question–answer sequences, including sequential agency and thematic agency. This allows us to see possible explanations for the outlier distributions found in ǂĀkhoe Haiǁom and Tzeltal.

The Virtual Personalities Model is a motive-based neural network model that provides both a psychological model and a computational implementation that explicates the dynamics and often large within-person variability in behavior that arises over time. At the same time the same model can produce—across many virtual personalities—between-subject variability in behavior that when factor analyzed yields familiar personality structure (e.g., the Big Five). First, we describe our personality model and its implementation as a neural network model. Second, we focus on detailing the neurobiological underpinnings of this model. Third, we examine the learning mechanisms, and their biological substrates, as ways that the model gets “wired up,” discussing Pavlovian and Instrumental conditioning, Pavlovian to Instrumental transfer, and habits. Finally, we describe the dynamics of how initial differences in propensities (e.g., dopamine functioning), wiring differences due to experience, and other factors could operate together to develop and change personality over time, and how this might be empirically examined. Thus, our goal is to contribute to the rising chorus of voices seeking a more precise neurobiologically based science of the complex dynamics underlying personality.

The Reformation in Ireland has traditionally been seen as an unmitigated failure. This article contributes to current scholarship that is challenging this perception by conceiving the sixteenth-century Irish Church as part of the English Church. It does so by examining the episcopal career of John Bale, bishop of Ossory, County Kilkenny, 1552–3. Bale wrote an account of his Irish experience, known as the Vocacyon, soon after fleeing his diocese upon the accession of Queen Mary to the English throne and the subsequent restoration of Roman Catholicism. The article considers Bale's episcopal career as an expression of the relationship between Church and state in mid-Tudor England and Ireland. It will be shown that ecclesiastical reform in Ireland was complemented by political subjugation, and vice versa. Having been appointed by Edward VI, Bale upheld the royal supremacy as justification for implementing ecclesiastical reform. The combination of preaching the gospel and enforcing the 1552 Prayer Book was, for Bale, the best method of evangelism. The double effect was to win converts and align the Irish Church with the English form of worship. Hence English reformers exploited the political dominance of England to export their evangelical faith into Ireland.

This study determines the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes consumed by long-term care (LTC) residents. This cross-sectional study was completed in thirty-two LTC homes in four Canadian provinces. Weighed and estimated food and beverage intake were collected over 3 non-consecutive days from 632 randomly selected residents. Nutrient intakes were adjusted for intra-individual variation and compared with the Dietary Reference Intakes. Proportion of participants, stratified by sex and use of modified (MTF) or regular texture foods, with intakes below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) or Adequate Intake (AI), were identified. Numbers of participants that met these adequacy values with use of micronutrient supplements was determined. Mean age of males (n 197) was 85·2 (sd 7·6) years and females (n 435) was 87·4 (sd 7·8) years. In all, 33 % consumed MTF; 78·2 % (males) and 76·1 % (females) took at least one micronutrient pill. Participants on a MTF had lower intake for some nutrients (males=4; females=8), but also consumed a few nutrients in larger amounts than regular texture consumers (males=4; females =1). More than 50 % of participants in both sexes and texture groups consumed inadequate amounts of folate, vitamins B6, Ca, Mg and Zn (males only), with >90 % consuming amounts below the EAR/AI for vitamin D, E, K, Mg (males only) and K. Vitamin D supplements resolved inadequate intakes for 50–70 % of participants. High proportions of LTC residents have intakes for nine of twenty nutrients examined below the EAR or AI. Strategies to improve intake specific to these nutrients are needed.

The low (high) abnormal returns of stocks with high (low) beta, which we refer to as the beta anomaly, is one of the most persistent anomalies in empirical asset pricing research. This article demonstrates that investors’ demand for lottery-like stocks is an important driver of the beta anomaly. The beta anomaly is no longer detected when beta-sorted portfolios are neutralized to lottery demand, regression specifications control for lottery demand, or factor models include a lottery demand factor. The beta anomaly is concentrated in stocks with low levels of institutional ownership and it exists only when the price impact of lottery demand is concentrated in high-beta stocks.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: This research project envisions the integration of Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) and UI Health Cerner electronic medical record (EMR) system with the following goals: (1) enable sharing of data about the status of the housing insecure and homeless. (2) Identify and match patient record accurately. (3) Record housing insecurity or homelessness information with structured data elements in the EMR. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We created a Master Person Index (MPI) of the homeless individuals from HMSI using OpenEMPI software package, which is an open source implementation of an Enterprise Master Patient Index (EMPI). An entity model was generated based on the selective data elements from HMIS database, which were relevant for the patient identity management and healthcare service management. An automated script was implemented to extract data from HMIS and load it into OpenEMPI to build the MPI. Once the MPI is setup, the Emergency Department users were able to perform patient identity matching and confirm housing insecure or homeless status of their patients by querying the index using the web-based tool. We developed structured data elements to record homelessness information, which will allow us to measure the prevalence of this risk among patients. We are also exploring the possibility to integrate the systems the using the IHE PIX/PDQ profile, which provides ways for healthcare applications to query a patient information server for a patient based on user-defined search criteria, and retrieve a patient’s information directly into the application. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We implemented a MPI of homeless individuals, which would allow the emergency department users to perform patient identity matching of housing insecure or homeless patients, without undue privacy intrusions. We are confident that IHE PIX/PDQ profile is able to support the integration of healthcare and housing and homeless services systems and enable the data sharing in an efficient way. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The project addressed the gap in the sharing of data about housing insecure or homeless persons between healthcare and housing and social services that will result in improvements in coordination of care, reduce the cycle time from recognition of risk to the referral to housing and services and improve health outcomes and residential stability. Successful completion of this integration project will give us a model that we can scale to many other communities.

The South-East Asian ranges of two narrow-geographical range species, Germain’s Peacock Pheasant Polyplectron germaini (GPP) and Orange-necked Partridge Arborophila davidi (ONP) have been shrinking due to pressures from anthropogenic activities. To improve our knowledge of population densities of Germain’s Peacock Pheasant and the Orange-necked Partridge in their remaining habitats, their current and historical distribution range, and the contraction of their distribution range as a surrogate for population declines, we carried out line and point transect surveys in protected areas in southern Vietnam to estimate their density and subsequently model their habitat associations. Our results consistently showed that the density of the GPP was not significantly different among mosaic, evergreen, or mixed deciduous forests, but appeared to be notably lower in bamboo forest, while the density of the ONP was highest in evergreen and mosaic forests and lower in bamboo, with no detections in mixed-deciduous forest. GPP was mostly found close to water sources in mosaic, evergreen and mixed-deciduous forests. The presence of ONP was positively associated with elevation, evergreen and mosaic forest. Primary forest loss, mainly in the lowlands, within the ranges of both species was at least 70% over the last 70 years, suggesting that suitable habitats within the range of both species may have shrunk by at least 60–70%. In addition, a number of threats still occur in their remaining suitable habitats, making them increasingly vulnerable in the long-term, if conservation interventions, such as increased protection, are not implemented.

In Thailand, as for most of South-East Asia, large vertebrates are declining rapidly due to habitat degradation and increasing hunting pressure. Once relatively common in the evergreen forest of Southern Thailand, the Great Argus Argusianus argus is currently limited to a few populations, whose status is currently unknown. In this study we investigated changes in Great Argus abundance over the past 13 years in Hala-Bala Wildlife Sanctuary. Our aim was to estimate and compare the abundance and density of this species from an earlier two-year survey in 2001–2002 and ours in 2014, and to assess the effect of landscape change on its status of the species. We conducted surveys from March to August 2014 during the breeding season. We placed point counts that overlapped the line transects from the 2001–2002 survey. The results indicated a decline of > 35% in mean abundance from 2001 to 2014. In addition, male abundance has shifted and is now positively related to distance from the forest edge. High levels of human disturbance close to the forest edge may have resulted in the birds moving to the core of the forest, suggesting a need to increase protection and management of forest edge areas. In common with other studies of large vertebrates, our results confirm the importance of long-term studies to highlight the negative effects of human disturbance.