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When open-cut mines are eventually abandoned, they leave a large hole with sloping sides. The hole fills with rain water, and there is also contaminated run-off from surrounding land, that moves through the rock and eventually through the sloping sides of the abandoned mine. This paper considers a two-dimensional unsteady model motivated by this leaching flow through the rock and into the rain-water reservoir. The stability of the interface between the two fluids is analysed in the inviscid limit. A viscous Boussinesq model is also presented, and a closed-form solution is presented to this problem, after it has been linearized in a manner consistent with Boussinesq theory. That solution suggests that the interfacial zone is effectively neutrally stable as it evolves in time. However, an asymptotic theory in the interfacial region shows the interface to be unstable. In addition, the nonlinear Boussinesq model is solved using a spectral method. Interfacial travelling waves and roll-up are observed and discussed, and compared against the predictions of asymptotic Boussinesq theory.
There is evidence for the cost-effectiveness of health visitor (HV) training to assess postnatal depression (PND) and deliver psychological approaches to women at risk of depression. Whether this approach is cost-effective for lower-risk women is unknown. There is a need to know the cost of HV-delivered universal provision, and how much it might cost to improve health-related quality of life for postnatal women. A sub-study of a cluster-randomised controlled trial in the former Trent region (England) previously investigated the effectiveness of PoNDER HV training in mothers at lower risk of PND. We conducted a parallel cost-effectiveness analysis at 6-months postnatal for all mothers with lower-risk status attributed to an Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) score <12 at 6-weeks postnatal.
Intervention HVs were trained in assessment and cognitive behavioural or person-centred psychological support techniques to prevent depression. Outcomes examined: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gains over the period between 6 weeks and 6 months derived from SF-6D (from SF-36); risk-of-depression at 6 months (dichotomising 6-month EPDS scores into lower risk (<12) and at-risk (⩾12).
In lower-risk women, 1474 intervention (63 clusters) and 767 control participants (37 clusters) had valid 6-week and 6-month EPDS scores. Costs and outcomes data were available for 1459 participants. 6-month adjusted costs were £82 lower in intervention than control groups, with 0.002 additional QALY gained. The probability of cost-effectiveness at £20 000 was very high (99%).
PoNDER HV training was highly cost-effective in preventing symptoms of PND in a population of lower-risk women and cost-reducing over 6 months.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: We sought to investigate the role of the host microbiome during severe, acute respiratory infection (ARI) to understand the drivers of both acute clinical pathogenesis. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Nasopharyngeal swabs comprised of mixed cell populations at the active site of infection were collected from 192 hospitalized pediatric patients with ARI. We combined comprehensive respiratory virus detection and virus genome sequencing with 16S rRNA gene sequencing to evaluate the microbial content of the airway during ARI. This data was coupled with 11 clinical parameters, which were compiled to create a clinical severity score. The microbiome profiles were assessed to determine if clinical severity of infection, and/or specific virus was associated with increased clinical severity. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We identified 8 major microbiome profiles classified by dominant bacterial genus, Moraxella, Corynebacterium, Staphylococcus, Haemophilus, Streptococcus, Alloiococcus, Schlegelella, and Diverse. Increased clinical severity was significantly associated with microbiome profiles dominated by Haemophilus, Streptococcus, and Schlegelella, whereas Corynebacterium and Alloiococcus were more prevalent in children with less severe disease. Independent of the microbial community, more than 60% of patients with the highest clinical severity were infected with either respiratory syncytial virus or rhinovirus. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Our results indicate that individually and in combination, both virus and microbial composition may drive clinical severity during acute respiratory viral infections. It is still unclear how the complex interplay between virus, bacterial community, and the host response influence long-term respiratory impacts, such as the development of asthma. Nonetheless, during ARIs therapeutic interventions such as antibiotics and probiotics may be warranted in a subset of patients that are identified to have both a virus and microbiome profile that is associated with increased pathogenesis to limit both acute and long-term phenotypes.
An internationally approved and globally used classification scheme for the diagnosis of CHD has long been sought. The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code (IPCCC), which was produced and has been maintained by the International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease (the International Nomenclature Society), is used widely, but has spawned many “short list” versions that differ in content depending on the user. Thus, efforts to have a uniform identification of patients with CHD using a single up-to-date and coordinated nomenclature system continue to be thwarted, even if a common nomenclature has been used as a basis for composing various “short lists”. In an attempt to solve this problem, the International Nomenclature Society has linked its efforts with those of the World Health Organization to obtain a globally accepted nomenclature tree for CHD within the 11th iteration of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The International Nomenclature Society has submitted a hierarchical nomenclature tree for CHD to the World Health Organization that is expected to serve increasingly as the “short list” for all communities interested in coding for congenital cardiology. This article reviews the history of the International Classification of Diseases and of the IPCCC, and outlines the process used in developing the ICD-11 congenital cardiac disease diagnostic list and the definitions for each term on the list. An overview of the content of the congenital heart anomaly section of the Foundation Component of ICD-11, published herein in its entirety, is also included. Future plans for the International Nomenclature Society include linking again with the World Health Organization to tackle procedural nomenclature as it relates to cardiac malformations. By doing so, the Society will continue its role in standardising nomenclature for CHD across the globe, thereby promoting research and better outcomes for fetuses, children, and adults with congenital heart anomalies.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Respiratory viruses cause enormous medical burden, yet many of the specific virus and host genetic factors that impact pathogenesis are still largely unknown or poorly understood. To better understand the drivers of both acute clinical pathogenesis and long-term impacts, such as the development of asthma, we investigated the host response to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in pediatric patients. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We collected nasopharyngeal swabs from 32 pediatric patients with acute RSV infection. The swabs represented a mixed cell population including epithelial and immune cells at the active site of infection. Unbiased RNA sequencing with ribosomal RNA depletion allowed the simultaneous detection of host gene expression and RSV infection. We sequenced samples 2×75 bp on an Illumina NextSeq 500. Sequences were mapped to the human genome using the TopHat 2 aligner and FPKM estimation of reference genes and transcripts and assembly of novel transcripts were conducted with Cufflinks 2. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: During acute RSV infection we identified 7343 genes that were significantly expressed. Pathway analysis using KEGG revealed significant upregulation of pathways involved in innate immune response infection, ribosome function, oxidative phosphorylation, spliceosome and autoimmune disorders. We found high levels of innate immune response genes including CXCL8, IFITM1, IFITM2, IFITM3, IL1RN, and ISG15. In comparing RSV subtype A to RSV B we found significant differential expression of multiple noncoding RNAs. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Examination of the host gene response during acute RSV infections, yielded important insight into the mechanisms that cause clinical pathogenesis and may provide understanding of the mechanisms that lead to known long-term impacts, such as the development of asthma. Together, this data may be used to guide clinical treatment and management decisions for children with severe RSV infections.
This article touches on the complex and decentralized network that is the US health care system and how important it is to include emergency management in this network. By aligning the overarching incentives of opposing health care organizations, emergency management can become resilient to up-and-coming changes in reimbursement, staffing, and network ownership. Coalitions must grasp the opportunity created by changes in value-based purchasing and impending Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services emergency management rules to engage payers, physicians, and executives. Hope and faith in doing good is no longer enough for preparedness and health care coalitions; understanding how physicians are employed and health care is delivered and paid for is now necessary. Incentivizing preparedness through value-based compensation systems will become the new standard for emergency management. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:158–160)
The business context of growth in emerging markets has considerable implications for talent-management strategies. There is a changing balance of economic power from developed to developing countries, accompanied by a new geographical demography that is giving rise to enormous talent pools in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In particular, China and India have emerged as the two most dynamic of the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). These giant labor and consumer markets have attracted large shares of foreign investment, have developed strong indigenous industrial and service sectors, and have experienced rapid market growth, resource acquisition, and deployment. Both countries have served as springboards for the growth of emerging market multinationals, as large heretofore domestic companies globalize. This chapter has three objectives. First, it addresses the need for talent management in the Indian and Chinese context and the challenges associated with talent management in those regions. Second, it considers the state of talent-management practices in China and India and how they have evolved in recent years. Third, it explores the implications of that evolution for management practice and research and our understanding of talent practices generally in the next wave of emerging markets economies.
Economic development in both China and India has led to a focus on those factors that enable growth such as the availability of natural resources, investment funding, favorable regulatory policies, and a supportive infrastructure. China and India are the world’s most populous countries. They have sustained the highest annual GDP growth rates over the past decade among all major economies – 9% for China and 6 to 7% for India. Both have exerted strong influence and leverage among the ten emerging-market countries in the G-20. China is the world’s largest source of net capital outflows and India is the world’s largest recipient of foreign outsourcing of computer-based services. China and India are each heavily dependent on imported oil. They are the second and fourth largest importers, respectively. These two countries are by far the most important emerging markets in terms of economic and demographics factors.
Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a decision support tool to assess the potential benefits and costs of new healthcare interventions.
Methods: The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) commissioned the development of a Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM)—a computer microsimulation model that simulates individual lives one at a time, from birth to death, taking account of Canadian demographic and labor force characteristics, risk factor exposures, and health histories. Information from all the simulated lives is combined to produce aggregate measures of health outcomes for the population or for particular subpopulations.
Results: The CRMM can project the population health and economic impacts of cancer control programs in Canada and the impacts of major risk factors, cancer prevention, and screening programs and new cancer treatments on population health and costs to the healthcare system. It estimates both the direct costs of medical care, as well as lost earnings and impacts on tax revenues. The lung and colorectal modules are available through the CPAC Web site (www.cancerview.ca/cancerrriskmanagement) to registered users where structured scenarios can be explored for their projected impacts. Advanced users will be able to specify new scenarios or change existing modules by varying input parameters or by accessing open source code. Model development is now being extended to cervical and breast cancers.
There is conflicting evidence about the relationship between vitamin D deficiency and depression, and a systematic assessment of the literature has not been available.
To determine the relationship, if any, between vitamin D deficiency and depression.
A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomised controlled trials was conducted.
One case-control study, ten cross-sectional studies and three cohort studies with a total of 31 424 participants were analysed. Lower vitamin D levels were found in people with depression compared with controls (SMD = 0.60,95% Cl 0.23–0.97) and there was an increased odds ratio of depression for the lowest v. highest vitamin D categories in the cross-sectional studies (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.0–1.71). The cohort studies showed a significantly increased hazard ratio of depression for the lowest v. highest vitamin D categories (HR=2.21, 95% CI 1.40–3.49).
Our analyses are consistent with the hypothesis that low vitamin D concentration is associated with depression, and highlight the need for randomised controlled trials of vitamin D for the prevention and treatment of depression to determine whether this association is causal.