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Everyone faces uncertainty on a daily basis. Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that we face. Because our cognitive concept of living things differs from that of non-living things, and distinguishing cognitive concepts might have linguistic markers, we designed four studies to test whether people use different probability expressions when faced with animate or inanimate uncertainty. We found that verbal probability is the preferred way to express animate uncertainty, whereas numerical probability is the preferred way to express inanimate uncertainty. The “verbal-animate” and “numerical-inanimate” associations were robust enough to persist when tested with forced-choice response patterns regardless of the information (e.g., equally likely outcomes, frequencies, or personal beliefs) used to construct probabilities of events. When the response pattern was changed to free-responses, the associations were evident unless the subjects were asked to write their own probability predictions for vague uncertainty. Given that the world around us consists of both animate (i.e., living) and inanimate (i.e., non-living) things, “verbal-animate” and “numerical-inanimate” associations may play a major role in risk communication and may otherwise be useful for practitioners and consultants.
Recently, the collisionless pitch-angle scattering for relativistic runaway electrons (REs) in toroidal geometries such as tokamaks was discovered through a full orbit simulation approach (Liu et al., Nucl. Fusion, vol. 56, 2016, p. 064002), and it was then theoretically investigated that a new expression for the magnetic moment, including the second-order corrections, could essentially reproduce the so-called collisionless pitch-angle scattering process (Liu et al., Nucl. Fusion, vol. 58, 2018, p. 106018). In this paper, with synchrotron radiation, extensive numerical verification of the validity of the high-order guiding-centre theory is given for simulations involving REs by incorporating such an expression for the magnetic moment into our particle tracing code. A high-order guiding-centre simulation approach with synchrotron radiation (HGSA) is applied. Synchrotron radiation plays an essential role in the life cycle of REs. The energy of REs first increases and then becomes saturated until the electric field acceleration is balanced by the radiation dissipation. Unfortunately, the process cannot be simulated accurately with the standard guiding-centre model, i.e. the first-order guiding-centre model. Remarkably, it is found that the HGSA can effectively produce the fundamental process of REs. Since the time scale of the energy saturation of REs is close to seconds, the computational cost becomes significant. In order to save costs, it is necessary to estimate the time of energy saturation. An analytical estimate is derived for the time it takes for synchrotron drag to balance an accelerating electric field and the provided formula has been numerically verified. Test calculations reveal that HGSA is favourable for exploiting the dynamics of REs in tokamak plasmas.
COVID-19 has long-term impacts on public mental health, while few research studies incorporate multidimensional methods to thoroughly characterise the psychological profile of general population and little detailed guidance exists for mental health management during the pandemic. This research aims to capture long-term psychological profile of general population following COVID-19 by integrating trajectory modelling approaches, latent trajectory pattern identification and network analyses.
Longitudinal data were collected from a nationwide sample of 18 804 adults in 12 months after COVID-19 outbreak in China. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 and Insomnia Severity Index were used to measure depression, anxiety and insomnia, respectively. The unconditional and conditional latent growth curve models were fitted to investigate trajectories and long-term predictors for psychological symptoms. We employed latent growth mixture model to identify the major psychological symptom trajectory patterns, and ran sparse Gaussian graphical models with graphical lasso to explore the evolution of psychopathological network.
At 12 months after COVID-19 outbreak, psychological symptoms generally alleviated, and five psychological symptom trajectories with different demographics were identified: normal stable (63.4%), mild stable (15.3%), mild-increase to decrease (11.7%), mild-decrease to increase (4.0%) and moderate/severe stable (5.5%). The finding indicated that there were still about 5% individuals showing consistently severe distress and approximately 16% following fluctuating psychological trajectories, who should be continuously monitored. For individuals with persistently severe trajectories and those with fluctuating trajectories, central or bridge symptoms in the network were mainly ‘motor abnormality’ and ‘sad mood’, respectively. Compared with initial peak and late COVID-19 phase, aftermath of initial peak might be a psychologically vulnerable period with highest network connectivity. The central and bridge symptoms for aftermath of initial peak (‘appetite change’ and ‘trouble of relaxing’) were totally different from those at other pandemic phases (‘sad mood’).
This research identified the overall growing trend, long-term predictors, trajectory classes and evolutionary pattern of psychopathological network of psychological symptoms in 12 months after COVID-19 outbreak. It provides a multidimensional long-term psychological profile of the general population after COVID-19 outbreak, and accentuates the essentiality of continuous psychological monitoring, as well as population- and time-specific psychological management after COVID-19. We believe our findings can offer reference for long-term psychological management after pandemics.
The present study evaluated whether fat mass assessment using the triceps skinfold (TSF) thickness provides additional prognostic value to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) framework in patients with lung cancer (LC). We performed an observational cohort study including 2672 LC patients in China. Comprehensive demographic, disease and nutritional characteristics were collected. Malnutrition was retrospectively defined using the GLIM criteria, and optimal stratification was used to determine the best thresholds for the TSF. The associations of malnutrition and TSF categories with survival were estimated independently and jointly by calculating multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Malnutrition was identified in 808 (30·2 %) patients, and the best TSF thresholds were 9·5 mm in men and 12 mm in women. Accordingly, 496 (18·6 %) patients were identified as having a low TSF. Patients with concurrent malnutrition and a low TSF had a 54 % (HR = 1·54, 95 % CI = 1·25, 1·88) greater death hazard compared with well-nourished individuals, which was also greater compared with malnourished patients with a normal TSF (HR = 1·23, 95 % CI = 1·06, 1·43) or malnourished patients without TSF assessment (HR = 1·31, 95 % CI = 1·14, 1·50). These associations were concentrated among those patients with adequate muscle mass (as indicated by the calf circumference). Additional fat mass assessment using the TSF enhances the prognostic value of the GLIM criteria. Using the population-derived thresholds for the TSF may provide significant prognostic value when used in combination with the GLIM criteria to guide strategies to optimise the long-term outcomes in patients with LC.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a major threat to the public. However, the comprehensive profile of suicidal ideation among the general population has not been systematically investigated in a large sample in the age of COVID-19.
A national online cross-sectional survey was conducted between February 28, 2020 and March 11, 2020 in a representative sample of Chinese adults aged 18 years and older. Suicidal ideation was assessed using item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its risk factors was evaluated.
A total of 56,679 participants (27,149 males and 29,530 females) were included. The overall prevalence of suicidal ideation was 16.4%, including 10.9% seldom, 4.1% often, and 1.4% always suicidal ideation. The prevalence of suicidal ideation was higher in males (19.1%) and individuals aged 18–24 years (24.7%) than in females (14.0%) and those aged 45 years and older (11.9%). Suicidal ideation was more prevalent in individuals with suspected or confirmed infection (63.0%), frontline workers (19.2%), and people with pre-existing mental disorders (41.6%). Experience of quarantine, unemployed, and increased psychological stress during the pandemic were associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation and its severity. However, paying more attention to and gaining a better understanding of COVID-19-related knowledge, especially information about psychological interventions, could reduce the risk.
The estimated prevalence of suicidal ideation among the general population in China during COVID-19 was significant. The findings will be important for improving suicide prevention strategies during COVID-19.
The upsurge in the number of people affected by the COVID-19 is likely to lead to increased rates of emotional trauma and mental illnesses. This article systematically reviewed the available data on the benefits of interventions to reduce adverse mental health sequelae of infectious disease outbreaks, and to offer guidance for mental health service responses to infectious disease pandemic. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, WHO Global Research Database on infectious disease, and the preprint server medRxiv were searched. Of 4278 reports identified, 32 were included in this review. Most articles of psychological interventions were implemented to address the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Ebola, SARS, and MERS for multiple vulnerable populations. Increasing mental health literacy of the public is vital to prevent the mental health crisis under the COVID-19 pandemic. Group-based cognitive behavioral therapy, psychological first aid, community-based psychosocial arts program, and other culturally adapted interventions were reported as being effective against the mental health impacts of COVID-19, Ebola, and SARS. Culturally-adapted, cost-effective, and accessible strategies integrated into the public health emergency response and established medical systems at the local and national levels are likely to be an effective option to enhance mental health response capacity for the current and for future infectious disease outbreaks. Tele-mental healthcare services were key central components of stepped care for both infectious disease outbreak management and routine support; however, the usefulness and limitations of remote health delivery should also be recognized.
The association between milk consumption and the metabolic syndrome remains inconclusive, and data from Chinese populations are scarce. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the association between milk consumption and the metabolic syndrome and its components among the residents of Suzhou Industrial Park, Suzhou, China. A total of 5149 participants were included in the final analysis. A logistic regression model was applied to estimate the OR and 95 % CI for the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components according to milk consumption. In addition, the results of our study were further meta-analysed with other published observational studies to quantify the association between the highest v. lowest categories of milk consumption and the metabolic syndrome and its components. There was no significant difference in the odds of having the metabolic syndrome between milk consumers and non-milk consumers (OR 0·86, 95 % CI 0·73, 1·01). However, milk consumers had lower odds of having elevated waist circumference (OR 0·78, 95 % CI 0·67, 0·92), elevated TAG (OR 0·83, 95 % CI 0·70, 0·99) and elevated blood pressure (OR 0·85, 95 % CI 0·73, 0·99). When the results were pooled together with other published studies, higher milk consumption was inversely associated with the risk of the metabolic syndrome (relative risk 0·80, 95 % CI 0·72, 0·88) and its components (except elevated fasting blood glucose); however, these results should be treated with caution as high heterogeneity was observed. In summary, the currently available evidence from observational studies suggests that higher milk consumption may be inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome.
The assessment and calibration of representational bias in modern soil phytolith assemblages provide the basis for improving interpretation of fossil phytolith assemblages. We studied soil phytolith representation by comparing phytoliths from living plant communities with those from paired surface soils, representing 39 plant communities in Northeast China. Together with the use of representation indices, the 34 and 30 soil morphotypes observed in forest and grassland samples, respectively, were both classified into the following four groups: “Associated types” were similarly represented in soils and in the corresponding species inventory data; “Over-represented types” and “Under-represented types” were respectively over- and under-represented in soils compared to the inventory data; and, in the case of “Special types,” the relationship with the parent plants was unclear. In addition, the diagnostic types exhibited different degrees of representation, while the most common morphotypes were equally represented between grassland samples and forest samples. On this basis, a comparison between the original and corrected soil phytolith indices of the additional 29 soil samples was conducted. The soil phytoliths frequencies corrected by R-values differed between plots with differing plant compositions, and were moderately consistent with actual plant richness in the plot inventory data. We therefore confirmed that R-values are a promising means of correcting soil phytoliths for representational bias in temperate regions. The corrected soil phytoliths can be used to reliably reflect vegetation variability. Overall, our study provides an improved understanding of soil phytolith representation and offers a potential method for improving the accuracy of paleovegetation reconstruction.
The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.
Diamond is a metastable phase, while graphite is a stable phase in low pressure equilibrium phase diagrams of carbon. However, diamond with saturated structure of π bonds is more stable than graphite with unsaturated structure of n bonds during the existence of activated particles generated by plasma. That provides an excellent explanation for the plasma and other activated CVD diamond growth under low pressure taking place with simultaneous graphite etching.
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