Cost-effectiveness analysis needs to be considered when introducing new tools and treatments to clinical services. The number of new assessment tools in mental health has rapidly expanded, including suicide risk assessment. Such suicide-based assessments, when linked to preventative interventions, are integral to high-quality mental health care for people with severe mental illness (SMI). We examined the cost implications of implementing Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide (OxMIS), an evidence-based, scalable suicide risk assessment tool that provides probabilistic estimates of suicide risk over 12 months for people with SMI in England.

We developed a decision analytic model using secondary data to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of incorporating OxMIS into clinical decision-making in secondary care as compared to usual care. Cost-effectiveness was measured in terms of costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Uncertainty was addressed with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Conducting suicide risk assessment with OxMIS was potentially cheaper than clinical risk assessment alone by £250 (95% confidence interval, −786;31) to £599 (−1,321;−156) (in 2020–2021 prices) per person with SMI and associated with a small increase in quality of life (0.01 [−0.03;0.05] to 0.01 QALY, [−0.04;0.07]). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of implementing OxMIS was cost saving. Using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.96% of 10,000 simulations remained cost saving.

Cost-effectiveness analysis can be conducted on risk prediction models. Implementing one such model that focuses on suicide risk in a high-risk population can lead to cost savings and improved health outcomes, especially if explicitly linked to preventative treatments.

Evidence on the role of co-occurring psychiatric disorders in mortality associated with psychotic depression is limited.

To estimate the risk of cause-specific mortality in psychotic depression compared with severe non-psychotic depression while controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders.

This cohort study used routine data from nationwide health registers in Finland. Eligible participants had their first diagnosis for psychotic depression or for severe non-psychotic depression between the years 2000 and 2018, had no pre-existing diagnoses for schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar disorder, and were aged 18–65 years at the index diagnosis. Causes of death were defined by ICD-10 codes. The follow-up time was up to 18 years.

We included 19 064 individuals with incident psychotic depression and 90 877 individuals with incident non-psychotic depression. Half (1199/2188) of the deaths in those with psychotic depression occurred within 5 years from the index diagnosis and the highest relative risk was during the first year after the diagnosis. Compared with individuals with non-psychotic depression, those with psychotic depression had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.48–1.70), suicides (aHR = 2.36, 95% CI 2.11–2.64) and fatal accidents (aHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.26–2.10) during the subsequent 5-year period after the index diagnosis.

Psychotic symptoms markedly added to the mortality risk associated with severe depression after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity. Prompt treatment and enhanced monitoring for psychotic symptoms is warranted in all patients with severe depression to prevent deaths because of suicides and other external causes.

Intellectual disability (ID) is associated with violent and sexual offending and victimization, but the importance of neuropsychiatric comorbidity and severity of disability remains unclear.

In a register-based cohort study of people born in Sweden 1980–1991 (n = 1 232 564), we investigated associations of mild and moderate/severe ID with any, violent and sexual crimes, and with assault victimization, stratified by comorbid autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We defined ID by attendance at a special school or registered diagnosis and obtained data on criminal convictions and injuries or deaths due to assaults from nationwide registers until end of 2013.

Compared to people without ID, autism or ADHD, men and women with mild or moderate/severe ID and comorbid ADHD had elevated risks of violent crimes [range of hazard ratios (HRs) 4.4–10.4] and assault victimization (HRs 2.0–7.7). Women with mild ID without comorbidities or with comorbid autism also had elevated risks of violent crimes and victimization (HRs 1.8–4.6) compared to women without ID, autism or ADHD. The relative risks of sexual offending and victimization were elevated in men and women with ID without comorbidities (HRs 2.6–12.7). The highest risks for sexual offending in men (HRs 9.4–11.0) and for sexual assault victimization in women (HRs 11.0–17.1) related to ID and comorbid ADHD.

The elevated risk of violent offending and assault victimization in people with ID is largely explained by comorbid ADHD, whereas ID is independently associated with sexual crimes and victimization, even though absolute risks are low.

Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs) are associated with experiences of victimization, but mechanisms remain unclear. We explored sex differences and the role of familial factors and externalizing problems in the association between several NDs and violent victimization in adolescence and young adulthood.

Individuals born in Sweden 1985–1997, residing in Sweden at their 15th birthday, were followed until date of violent victimization causing a hospital visit or death, death due to other causes, emigration, or December 31, 2013, whichever came first. The exposures were diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), intellectual disability (ID) and other NDs. We used three different Cox regression models: a crude model, a model adjusted for familial confounding using sibling-comparisons, and a model additionally adjusted for externalizing problems.

Among 1 344 944 individuals followed, on average, for 5 years, 74 487 were diagnosed with NDs and 37 765 had a hospital visit or died due to violence. ADHD was associated with an increased risk of violent victimization in males [hazard ratio (HR) 2.56; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.43–2.70) and females (HR 5.39; 95% CI 4.97–5.85). ASD and ID were associated with an increased risk of violent victimization in females only. After adjusting for familial factors and externalizing problems, only ADHD was associated with violent victimization among males (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.06–1.51) and females (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.21–2.36).

Females with NDs and males with ADHD are at greater risk of being victim of severe violence during adolescence and young adulthood. Relevant mechanisms include shared familial liability and externalizing problems. ADHD may be independently associated with violent victimization.

Outcome measurement in forensic mental health services can support service improvement, research, and patient progress evaluation. This systematic review aims to identify instruments available for use as outcome measures in this field and assess the evidence for the most common instruments, specific to the forensic context, which cover multiple outcome domains.

Studies were identified by searching seven online databases. Additional searches were then performed for 10 selected instruments to identify additional information on their psychometric properties. Instrument manuals and gray literature was reviewed for information about instrument development and content validity. The quality of evidence for psychometric properties was summarized for each instrument based on the COnsensus-based Standards for health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) approach.

A total of 435 different instruments or variants were identified. Psychometric information on the 10 selected instruments was extracted from 103 studies. All 10 instruments had a clinician reported component with only two having patient reported scales. Half of the instruments were primarily focused on risk. No instrument demonstrated adequate psychometric properties in all eight COSMIN categories assessed. Only one instrument, the Camberwell Assessment of Need: Forensic Version, had adequate evidence for its development and content validity. The most evidence was for construct validity, while none was identified for construct stability between groups.

Despite the large number of instruments potentially available, evidence for their use as outcome measures in forensic mental health services is limited. Future research and instrument development should involve patients and carers to ensure adequate content validity.

Violence perpetrated by psychiatric inpatients is associated with modifiable factors. Current structured approaches to assess inpatient violence risk lack predictive validity and linkage to interventions.

Adult psychiatric inpatients on forensic and general wards in three psychiatric hospitals were recruited and followed up prospectively for 6 months. Information on modifiable (dynamic) risk factors were collected every 1–4 weeks, and baseline background factors. Data were transferred to a web-based monitoring system (FOxWeb) to calculate a total dynamic risk score. Outcomes were extracted from an incident-reporting system recording aggression and interpersonal violence. The association between total dynamic score and violent incidents was assessed by multilevel logistic regression and compared with dynamic score excluded.

We recruited 89 patients and conducted 624 separate assessments (median 5/patient). Mean age was 39 (s.d. 12.5) years with 20% (n = 18) female. Common diagnoses were schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (70%, n = 62) and personality disorders (20%, n = 18). There were 93 violent incidents. Factors contributing to violence risk were a total dynamic score of ⩾1 (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25–9.20), 10-year increase in age (OR 0.67, 0.47–0.96), and female sex (OR 2.78, 1.04–7.40). Non-significant associations with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder were found (OR 0.50, 0.20–1.21). In a fixed-effect model using all covariates, AUC was 0.77 (0.72–0.82) and 0.75 (0.70–0.80) when the dynamic score was excluded.

In predicting violence risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders, modifiable factors added little incremental value beyond static ones in a psychiatric inpatient setting. Future work should make a clear distinction between risk factors that assist in prediction and those linked to needs.

Individuals diagnosed with psychiatric disorders who are prescribed antipsychotics have lower rates of violence and crime but the differential effects of specific antipsychotics are not known. We investigated associations between 10 specific antipsychotic medications and subsequent risks for a range of criminal outcomes.

We identified 74 925 individuals who were ever prescribed antipsychotics between 2006 and 2013 using nationwide Swedish registries. We tested for five specific first-generation antipsychotics (levomepromazine, perphenazine, haloperidol, flupentixol, and zuclopenthixol) and five second-generation antipsychotics (clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and aripiprazole). The outcomes included violent, drug-related, and any criminal arrests and convictions. We conducted within-individual analyses using fixed-effects Poisson regression models that compared rates of outcomes between periods when each individual was either on or off medication to account for time-stable unmeasured confounders. All models were adjusted for age and concurrent mood stabilizer medications.

The relative risks of all crime outcomes were substantially reduced [range of adjusted rate ratios (aRRs): 0.50–0.67] during periods when the patients were prescribed antipsychotics v. periods when they were not. We found that clozapine (aRRs: 0.28–0.44), olanzapine (aRRs: 0.46–0.72), and risperidone (aRRs: 0.53–0.64) were associated with lower arrest and conviction risks than other antipsychotics, including quetiapine (aRRs: 0.68–0.84) and haloperidol (aRRs: 0.67–0.77). Long-acting injectables as a combined medication class were associated with lower risks of the outcomes but only risperidone was associated with lower risks of all six outcomes (aRRs: 0.33–0.69).

There is heterogeneity in the associations between specific antipsychotics and subsequent arrests and convictions for any drug-related and violent crimes.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a major threat to the public. However, the comprehensive profile of suicidal ideation among the general population has not been systematically investigated in a large sample in the age of COVID-19.

A national online cross-sectional survey was conducted between February 28, 2020 and March 11, 2020 in a representative sample of Chinese adults aged 18 years and older. Suicidal ideation was assessed using item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its risk factors was evaluated.

A total of 56,679 participants (27,149 males and 29,530 females) were included. The overall prevalence of suicidal ideation was 16.4%, including 10.9% seldom, 4.1% often, and 1.4% always suicidal ideation. The prevalence of suicidal ideation was higher in males (19.1%) and individuals aged 18–24 years (24.7%) than in females (14.0%) and those aged 45 years and older (11.9%). Suicidal ideation was more prevalent in individuals with suspected or confirmed infection (63.0%), frontline workers (19.2%), and people with pre-existing mental disorders (41.6%). Experience of quarantine, unemployed, and increased psychological stress during the pandemic were associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation and its severity. However, paying more attention to and gaining a better understanding of COVID-19-related knowledge, especially information about psychological interventions, could reduce the risk.

The estimated prevalence of suicidal ideation among the general population in China during COVID-19 was significant. The findings will be important for improving suicide prevention strategies during COVID-19.

Little is known about the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide patterns in persons with schizophrenia.

To explore the trend and predictors of 21-year mortality and suicide in persons with schizophrenia in rural China.

This longitudinal follow-up study included 510 persons with schizophrenia who were identified in a mental health survey of individuals (≥15 years old) in 1994 in six townships of Xinjin County, Chengdu, China, and followed up in three waves until 2015. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox hazard regressions were conducted.

Of the 510 participants, 196 died (38.4% mortality) between 1994 and 2015; 13.8% of the deaths (n = 27) were due to suicide. Life expectancy was lower for men than for women (50.6 v. 58.5 years). Males consistently showed higher rates of mortality and suicide than females. Older participants had higher mortality (hazard ratio HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) but lower suicide rates (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98) than their younger counterparts. Poor family attitudes were associated with all-cause mortality and death due to other causes; no previous hospital admission and a history of suicide attempts independently predicted death by suicide.

Our findings suggest there is a high mortality and suicide rate in persons with schizophrenia in rural China, with different predictive factors for mortality and suicide. It is important to develop culture-specific, demographically tailored and community-based mental healthcare and to strengthen family intervention to improve the long-term outcome of persons with schizophrenia.

Self-harm is common in prisoners. There is an association between self-harm in prisoners and subsequent suicide, both within prison and on release. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a prediction model to identify male prisoners at high risk of self-harm.

We developed an 11-item screening model, based on risk factors identified from the literature. This screen was administered to 542 prisoners within 7 days of arrival in two male prisons in England. Participants were followed up for 6 months to identify those who subsequently self-harmed in prison. Analysis was conducted using Cox proportional hazard regression. Discrimination and calibration were determined for the model. The model was subsequently optimized using multivariable analysis, weighting variables, and dropping poorly performing items.

Seventeen (3.1%) of the participants self-harmed during follow up (median 53 days). The strongest risk factors were previous self-harm in prison (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 9.3 [95% CI: 3.3–16.6]) and current suicidal ideation (aHR = 7.6 [2.1–27.4]). As a continuous score, a one-point increase in the suicide screen was significantly associated with self-harm (HR = 1.4, 1.1–1.7). At the prespecified cut off score of 5, the screening model was associated with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 (0.53–0.79), with poor calibration. The optimized model saw two items dropped from the original screening tool, weighting of risk factors based on a multivariable model, and an AUC of 0.84 (0.76–0.92).

Further work is necessary to clarify the association between risk factors and self-harm in prison. Despite good face validity, current screening tools for self-harm need validation in new prison samples.

Violent behaviour by forensic psychiatric inpatients is common. We aimed to systematically review the performance of structured risk assessment tools for violence in these settings.

The nine most commonly used violence risk assessment instruments used in psychiatric hospitals were examined. A systematic search of five databases (CINAHL, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO and PubMed) was conducted to identify studies examining the predictive accuracy of these tools in forensic psychiatric inpatient settings. Risk assessment instruments were separated into those designed for imminent (within 24 hours) violence prediction and those designed for longer-term prediction. A range of accuracy measures and descriptive variables were extracted. A quality assessment was performed for each eligible study using the QUADAS-2. Summary performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, and area under the curve value) and HSROC curves were produced. In addition, meta-regression analyses investigated study and sample effects on tool performance.

Fifty-two eligible publications were identified, of which 43 provided information on tool accuracy in the form of AUC statistics. These provided data on 78 individual samples, with information on 6,840 patients. Of these, 35 samples (3,306 patients from 19 publications) provided data on all performance measures. The median AUC value for the wider group of 78 samples was higher for imminent tools (AUC 0.83; IQR: 0.71–0.85) compared with longer-term tools (AUC 0.68; IQR: 0.62-0.75). Other performance measures indicated variable accuracy for imminent and longer-term tools. Meta-regression indicated that no study or sample-related characteristics were associated with between-study differences in AUCs.

The performance of current tools in predicting risk of violence beyond the first few days is variable, and the selection of which tool to use in clinical practice should consider accuracy estimates. For more imminent violence, however, there is evidence in support of brief scalable assessment tools.

Substance use disorder explains much of the excess risk of violent behaviour in psychotic disorders. However, it is unclear to what extent the pharmacological properties and subthreshold use of illicit substances are associated with violence.

Individuals with psychotic disorders were recruited for two nationwide projects: GROUP (N = 871) in the Netherlands and NEDEN (N = 921) in the United Kingdom. Substance use and violent behaviour were assessed with standardized instruments and multiple sources of information. First, we used logistic regression models to estimate the associations of daily and nondaily use with violence for cannabis, stimulants, depressants and hallucinogens in the GROUP and NEDEN samples separately. Adjustments were made for age, sex and educational level. We then combined the results in random-effects meta-analyses.

Daily use, compared with nondaily or no use, and nondaily use, compared with no use, increased the pooled odds of violence in people with psychotic disorders for all substance categories. The increases were significant for daily use of cannabis [pooled odds ratio (pOR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–2.0), stimulants (pOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.7–4.5) and depressants (pOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1–4.5), and nondaily use of stimulants (pOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.0) and hallucinogens (pOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–2.1). Daily use of hallucinogens, which could only be analysed in the NEDEN sample, significantly increased the risk of violence (adjusted odds ratio 3.3, 95% CI 1.2–9.3).

Strategies to prevent violent behaviour in psychotic disorders should target any substance use.

We aimed to systematically review risk factors for criminal recidivism in individuals given community sentences.

We searched seven bibliographic databases and additionally conducted targeted searches for studies that investigated risk factors for any repeat offending in individuals who had received community (non-custodial) sentences. We included investigations that reported data on at least one risk factor and allowed calculations of odds ratios (ORs). If a similar risk factor was reported in three or more primary studies, they were grouped into domains, and pooled ORs were calculated.

We identified 15 studies from 5 countries, which reported data on 14 independent samples and 246,608 individuals. We found that several dynamic (modifiable) risk factors were associated with criminal recidivism in community-sentenced populations, including mental health needs (OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), substance misuse (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1–4.9), association with antisocial peers (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3–3.7), employment problems (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3–2.5), marital status (OR = 1.6, 95%: 1.4–1.8), and low income (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1–3.4). The strength of these associations was comparable to that of static (non-modifiable) risk factors, such as age, gender, and criminal history.

Assessing dynamic (modifiable) risk factors should be considered in all individuals given community sentences. The further integration of mental health, substance misuse, and criminal justice services may reduce reoffending risk in community-sentenced populations.

Interpersonal violence is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. The strength and population effect of modifiable risk factors for interpersonal violence, and the quality of the research evidence is not known.

We aimed to examine the strength and population effect of modifiable risk factors for interpersonal violence, and the quality and reproducibility of the research evidence.

We conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of risk factors for interpersonal violence. A systematic search was conducted to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses in general population samples. Effect sizes were extracted, converted into odds ratios and synthesised, and population attributable risk fractions (PAF) were calculated. Quality analyses were performed, including of small study effects, adjustment for confounders and heterogeneity. Secondary analyses for aggression, intimate partner violence and homicide were conducted, and systematic reviews (without meta-analyses) were summarised.

We identified 22 meta-analyses reporting on risk factors for interpersonal violence. Neuropsychiatric disorders were among the strongest in relative and absolute terms. The neuropsychiatric risk factor that had the largest effect at a population level were substance use disorders, with a PAF of 14.8% (95% CI 9.0–21.6%), and the most important historical factor was witnessing or being a victim of violence in childhood (PAF = 12.2%, 95% CI 6.5–17.4%). There was evidence of small study effects and large heterogeneity.

National strategies for the prevention of interpersonal violence may need to review policies concerning the identification and treatment of modifiable risk factors.

J.R.G. is an NIHR Senior Investigator. The views expressed within this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Despite evidence of links between depression and violent outcomes, potential moderators of this association remain unknown. The current study tested whether a biological marker, cortisol, moderated this association in a longitudinal sample of adolescents.

Participants were 358 Dutch adolescents (205 boys) with a mean age of 15 years at the first measurement. Depressive symptoms, the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and violent outcomes were measured annually across 3 years. The CAR was assessed by two measures: waking cortisol activity (CAR area under the curve ground) and waking cortisol reactivity (CAR area under the curve increase). Within-individual regression models were adopted to test the interaction effects between depressive symptoms and CAR on violent outcomes, which accounted for all time-invariant factors such as genetic factors and early environments. We additionally adjusted for time-varying factors including alcohol drinking, substance use and stressful life events.

In this community sample, 24% of adolescents perpetrated violent behaviours over 3 years. We found that CAR moderated the effects of depressive symptoms on adolescent violent outcomes (βs ranged from −0.12 to −0.28). In particular, when the CAR was low, depressive symptoms were positively associated with violent outcomes in within-individual models, whereas the associations were reversed when the CAR was high.

Our findings suggest that the CAR should be investigated further as a potential biological marker for violence in adolescents with high levels of depressive symptoms.

Secure hospitals are a high-cost, low-volume service consuming around a fifth of the overall mental health budget in England and Wales.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of adverse outcomes after discharge along with a comparison with rates in other clinical and forensic groups in order to inform public health and policy.

We searched for primary studies that followed patients discharged from a secure hospital, and reported mortality, readmissions or reconvictions. We determined crude rates for all adverse outcomes.

In total, 35 studies from 10 countries were included, involving 12 056 patients out of which 53% were violent offenders. The crude death rate for all-cause mortality was 1538 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 1175–1901). For suicide, the crude death rate was 325 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 235– 415). The readmission rate was 7208 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 5916–8500). Crude reoffending rates were 4484 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 3679–5287), with lower rates in more recent studies.

There is some evidence that patients discharged from forensic psychiatric services have lower offending outcomes than many comparative groups. Services could consider improving interventions aimed at reducing premature mortality, particularly suicide, in discharged patients.