Consuming whey protein before a meal may reduce postprandial glucose excursions, however, optimising timing of supplementation is important to improve its clinical utility. A total of thirteen centrally obese, insulin-resistant males (waist circumference: 121 (sem 3) cm; homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR): 6·4 (sem 1·2)) completed four experimental conditions in a single-blind, crossover design. Participants consumed mixed-macronutrient breakfast and lunch meals on all occasions, with 20 g whey protein consumed 15 min before (PRE), alongside (DUR) or 15 min post-breakfast (POST) or omitted (CON). Capillary glucose and plasma concentrations of insulin, TAG and NEFA, in addition to subjective appetite ratings, were collected for 180 min after each meal. PRE and DUR reduced post-breakfast glucose peak by 17·0 (sem 1·9) % (P<0·001) and 9·2 (sem 2·9) % (P=0·046), respectively, compared with CON. Post-breakfast glucose AUC was lower following PRE compared with POST and CON (PRE: 982 (sem 30) v. POST: 1031 (sem 36) and CON: 1065 (sem 37) mmol/l×180 min; P≤0·042) but similar to DUR (1013 (sem 32) mmol/l×180 min; P=0·77). Insulin was lower during PRE, when compared with POST and DUR (both P≤0·042) but similar to CON. There were no between-condition differences in measures of postprandial lipaemia or appetite, and no effect of condition post-lunch. Consumption of whey protein as a preload or alongside a mixed-macronutrient breakfast reduces postprandial glucose excursions in centrally obese, insulin-resistant males. Whey consumed as a preload has superior glycaemic-lowering effects. Supplementation at breakfast does not alter glycaemic responses to subsequent meals.

On 27 April 2015, Washington health authorities identified Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections associated with dairy education school field trips held in a barn 20–24 April. Investigation objectives were to determine the magnitude of the outbreak, identify the source of infection, prevent secondary illness transmission and develop recommendations to prevent future outbreaks. Case-finding, hypothesis generating interviews, environmental site visits and a case–control study were conducted. Parents and children were interviewed regarding event activities. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed. Environmental testing was conducted in the barn; isolates were compared to patient isolates using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Sixty people were ill, 11 (18%) were hospitalised and six (10%) developed haemolytic uremic syndrome. Ill people ranged in age from <1 year to 47 years (median: 7), and 20 (33%) were female. Twenty-seven case-patients and 88 controls were enrolled in the case–control study. Among first-grade students, handwashing (i.e. soap and water, or hand sanitiser) before lunch was protective (adjusted OR 0.13; 95% CI 0.02–0.88, P = 0.04). Barn samples yielded E. coli O157:H7 with PFGE patterns indistinguishable from patient isolates. This investigation provided epidemiological, laboratory and environmental evidence for a large outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 infections from exposure to a contaminated barn. The investigation highlights the often overlooked risk of infection through exposure to animal environments as well as the importance of handwashing for disease prevention. Increased education and encouragement of infection prevention measures, such as handwashing, can prevent illness.

The development of an economic capital model requires a decision to be made regarding how to aggregate capital requirements for the individual risk factors while taking into account the effects of diversification. Under the Individual Capital Adequacy Standards framework, UK life insurers have commonly adopted a correlation matrix approach due to its simplicity and ease in communication to the stakeholders involved, adjusting the result, where appropriate, to allow for non-linear interactions. The regulatory requirements of Solvency II have been one of the principal drivers leading to an increased use of more sophisticated aggregation techniques in economic capital models. This paper focusses on a simulation-based approach to the aggregation of capital requirements using copulas and proxy models. It describes the practical challenges in parameterising a copula including how allowance may be made for tail dependence. It also covers the challenges associated with fitting and validating a proxy model. In particular, the paper outlines how insurers could test, communicate and justify the choices made through the use of some examples.

As we enter the era of gravitational wave astronomy, we are beginning to collect observations which will enable us to explore aspects of astrophysics of massive stellar binaries which were previously beyond reach. In this paper we describe COMPAS (Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics), a new platform to allow us to deepen our understanding of isolated binary evolution and the formation of gravitational-wave sources. We describe the computational challenges associated with their exploration, and present preliminary results on overcoming them using Gaussian process regression as a simulation emulation technique.

In late 2011 the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries reported an increase in confirmed laboratory diagnoses of salmonellosis in dairy herds. To identify risk factors for herd-level outbreaks of salmonellosis we conducted a case-control study of New Zealand dairy herds in 2011–2012. In a multivariable analysis, use of continuous feed troughs [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·0–20], use of pelletized magnesium supplements (aOR 10, 95% CI 3·3–33) and use of palm kernel meal as a supplementary feed (aOR 8·7, 95% CI 2·5–30) were positively associated with a herd-level outbreak of salmonellosis between 1 July 2011 and 31 January 2012. We conclude that supplementary feeds used on dairy farms (regardless of type) need to be stored and handled appropriately to reduce the likelihood of bacterial contamination, particularly from birds and rodents. Magnesium supplementation in the pelletized form played a role in triggering outbreaks of acute salmonellosis in New Zealand dairy herds in 2011–2012.

Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with ‘stamping-out’ of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the ‘stamping-out’ strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

The present study examined the impact of breakfast and exercise on postprandial metabolism, appetite and macronutrient balance. A sample of twelve (blood variables n 11) physically active males completed four trials in a randomised, crossover design comprising a continued overnight fast followed by: (1) rest without breakfast (FR); (2) exercise without breakfast (FE); (3) breakfast consumption (1859 kJ) followed by rest (BR); (4) breakfast consumption followed by exercise (BE). Exercise was continuous, moderate-intensity running (expending approximately 2·9 MJ of energy). The equivalent time was spent sitting during resting trials. A test drink (1500 kJ) was ingested on all trials followed 90 min later by an ad libitum lunch. The difference between the BR and FR trials in blood glucose time-averaged AUC following test drink consumption approached significance (BR: 4·33 (sem 0·14) v. FR: 4·75 (sem 0·16) mmol/l; P= 0·08); but it was not different between FR and FE (FE: 4·77 (sem 0·14) mmol/l; P= 0·65); and was greater in BE (BE: 4·97 (sem 0·13) mmol/l) v. BR (P= 0·012). Appetite following the test drink was reduced in BR v. FR (P= 0·006) and in BE v. FE (P= 0·029). Following lunch, the most positive energy balance was observed in BR and least positive in FE. Regardless of breakfast, acute exercise produced a less positive energy balance following ad libitum lunch consumption. Energy and fat balance is further reduced with breakfast omission. Breakfast improved the overall appetite responses to foods consumed later in the day, but abrogated the appetite-suppressive effect of exercise.

Infection surveillance definitions for long-term care facilities (ie, the McGeer Criteria) have not been updated since 1991. An expert consensus panel modified these definitions on the basis of a structured review of the literature. Significant changes were made to the criteria defining urinary tract and respiratory tract infections. New definitions were added for norovirus gastroenteritis and Clostridum difficile infections.

Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2012;33(10):965-977

Automated surveillance using electronically available data has been found to be accurate and save time. An automated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) surveillance algorithm was validated at 4 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Epicenter hospitals. Electronic surveillance was highly sensitive, specific, and showed good to excellent agreement for hospital-onset; community-onset, study facility-associated; indeterminate; and recurrent CDI.

Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2012;33(3):305-308