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The suicide rate has increased significantly among US Army soldiers over the past decade. Here we report the first results from a large psychological autopsy study using two control groups designed to reveal risk factors for suicide death among soldiers beyond known sociodemographic factors and the presence of suicide ideation.
Informants were next-of-kin and Army supervisors for: 135 suicide cases, 137 control soldiers propensity-score-matched on known sociodemographic risk factors for suicide and Army history variables, and 118 control soldiers who reported suicide ideation in the past year.
Results revealed that most (79.3%) soldiers who died by suicide have a prior mental disorder; mental disorders in the prior 30-days were especially strong risk factors for suicide death. Approximately half of suicide decedents tell someone that they are considering suicide. Virtually all of the risk factors identified in this study differed between suicide cases and propensity-score-matched controls, but did not significantly differ between suicide cases and suicide ideators. The most striking difference between suicides and ideators was the presence in the former of an internalizing disorder (especially depression) and multi-morbidity (i.e. 3+ disorders) in the past 30 days.
Most soldiers who die by suicide have identifiable mental disorders shortly before their death and tell others about their suicidal thinking, suggesting that there are opportunities for prevention and intervention. However, few risk factors distinguish between suicide ideators and decedents, pointing to an important direction for future research.
The stress sensitization theory hypothesizes that individuals exposed to childhood adversity will be more vulnerable to mental disorders from proximal stressors. We aimed to test this theory with respect to risk of 30-day major depressive episode (MDE) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among new US Army soldiers.
The sample consisted of 30 436 new soldier recruits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (Army STARRS). Generalized linear models were constructed, and additive interactions between childhood maltreatment profiles and level of 12-month stressful experiences on the risk of 30-day MDE and GAD were analyzed.
Stress sensitization was observed in models of past 30-day MDE (χ28 = 17.6, p = 0.025) and GAD (χ28 = 26.8, p = 0.001). This sensitization only occurred at high (3+) levels of reported 12-month stressful experiences. In pairwise comparisons for the risk of 30-day MDE, the risk difference between 3+ stressful experiences and no stressful experiences was significantly greater for all maltreatment profiles relative to No Maltreatment. Similar results were found with the risk for 30-day GAD with the exception of the risk difference for Episodic Emotional and Sexual Abuse, which did not differ statistically from No Maltreatment.
New soldiers are at an increased risk of 30-day MDE or GAD following recent stressful experiences if they were exposed to childhood maltreatment. Particularly in the military with an abundance of unique stressors, attempts to identify this population and improve stress management may be useful in the effort to reduce the risk of mental disorders.
Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers.
A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004–2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011–2013 sample.
Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80–0.82 in 2004–2009 and 0.77 in the 2011–2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2–33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004–2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011–2013 validation sample.
Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.
Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate.
The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009.
There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2–39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2–22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8–1.8). Adjustment for a differential ‘healthy warrior effect’ cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status.
Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.
The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment.
Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004–2009 (n = 975 057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders.
The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100 000 person-years) was 3.1–3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100 000 person-years) was 0.9–1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1–6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9–2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables.
These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.
The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models.
The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004–2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history.
Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6–80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment.
A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.
The methodology commonly used to estimate disease burden, featuring ratings of severity of individual conditions, has been criticized for ignoring co-morbidity. A methodology that addresses this problem is proposed and illustrated here with data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Although the analysis is based on self-reports about one's own conditions in a community survey, the logic applies equally well to analysis of hypothetical vignettes describing co-morbid condition profiles.
Face-to-face interviews in 13 countries (six developing, nine developed; n=31 067; response rate=69.6%) assessed 10 classes of chronic physical and nine of mental conditions. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess overall perceived health. Multiple regression analysis with interactions for co-morbidity was used to estimate associations of conditions with VAS. Simulation was used to estimate condition-specific effects.
The best-fitting model included condition main effects and interactions of types by numbers of conditions. Neurological conditions, insomnia and major depression were rated most severe. Adjustment for co-morbidity reduced condition-specific estimates with substantial between-condition variation (0.24–0.70 ratios of condition-specific estimates with and without adjustment for co-morbidity). The societal-level burden rankings were quite different from the individual-level rankings, with the highest societal-level rankings associated with conditions having high prevalence rather than high individual-level severity.
Plausible estimates of disorder-specific effects on VAS can be obtained using methods that adjust for co-morbidity. These adjustments substantially influence condition-specific ratings.
South Africa's history and current social conditions suggest that mental disorders are likely to be a major contributor to disease burden, but there has been no national study using standardized assessment tools.
The South African Stress and Health Study was a nationally representative in-person psychiatric epidemiological survey of 4351 adults (aged ⩾18 years) that was conducted as part of the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative between January 2002 and June 2004. Twelve-month prevalence and severity of DSM-IV disorders, treatment, and sociodemographic correlates were assessed with Version 3.0 of the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0).
The 12-month prevalence of any DSM-IV/CIDI disorder was 16.5%, with 26.2% of respondents with disorder classified as severe cases and an additional 31.1% as moderately severe cases. The most common disorders were agoraphobia (4.8%), major depressive disorder (4.9%) and alcohol abuse or dependence (4.5%). Twenty-eight percent of adults with a severe or moderately severe disorder received treatment compared to 24.4% of mild cases. Some 13.8% of persons with no disorder received treatment. Treatment was mostly provided by the general medical sector with few people receiving treatment from mental health providers.
Psychiatric disorders are much higher in South Africa than in Nigeria and there is a high level of unmet need among persons with severe and moderately severe disorders.
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