Please note, due to essential maintenance online transactions will not be possible between 02:30 and 04:00 BST, on Tuesday 17th September 2019 (22:30-00:00 EDT, 17 Sep, 2019). We apologise for any inconvenience.
To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure email@example.com
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Meltwater runoff in the catchment area containing Chhota Shigri glacier (Western Himalaya) is simulated for the period 1951–2099. The applied mass-balance model is forced by downscaled products from four regional climate models with different horizontal resolution. For the future climate scenarios we use high resolution time series of 5 km grid spacing, generated using the newly developed Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model. The meteorological input is downscaled to 300 m horizontal resolution. The use of an ice flow model provides annually updated glacier area for the mass-balance calculations. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt, runoff, as well as the individual runoff components (glacial melt, snowmelt and rain). The resulting glacier area decreases by 35% (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario) to 70% (RCP 8.5 scenario) by 2099 relative to 2000. The average annual mass balance over the whole model period (1951–2099) was –0.4 (±0.3) m w.e. a–1. Average annual runoff does not differ substantially between the two climate scenarios. However, for the years after 2040 our results show a shift towards earlier snowmelt onset that increases runoff in May and June, and reduced glacier melt that decreases runoff in August and September. This shift is much stronger pronounced in the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Glacier mass balance and runoff are simulated from 1955 to 2014 for the catchment (46% glacier cover) containing Chhota Shigri Glacier (Western Himalaya) using gridded data from three regional climate models: (1) the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model v.4 (RCA4); (2) the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO); and (3) the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The input data are downscaled to the simulation grid (300 m) and calibrated with point measurements of temperature and precipitation. Additional input is daily potential global radiation calculated using a DEM at a resolution of 30 m. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt and runoff. The model parameters are calibrated with available mass-balance measurements and results are validated with geodetic measurements, other mass-balance model results and run-off measurements. Simulated annual mass balances slightly decreased from −0.3 m w.e. a−1 (1955–99) to −0.6 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–14. For the same periods, mean runoff increased from 2.0 m3 s−1 (1955–99) to 2.4 m3 s−1 (2000–14) with glacier melt contributing about one-third to the runoff. Monthly runoff increases are greatest in July, due to both increased snow and glacier melt, whereas slightly decreased snowmelt in August and September was more than compensated by increased glacier melt.
Current climate models suggest that global warming will result in more frequent extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts). These results, however, must be tempered with the fact that current climate models do not realistically represent many of the processes important to the formation of clouds and precipitation at various time and space scales. For instance, the diurnal cycle of precipitation is poorly represented in most climate models. The proper representation of precipitation is a major challenge to global climate models, which typically only resolve processes at 200- to 400-km scales, and is a focus of current scientific research. This chapter addresses the current understanding of the likely climate impact on precipitation, as well as some of the key challenges facing climate modelers with regard to improving future projections of precipitation.
Heated by sunlight and atmospheric radiation, water evaporates from the ocean and land surfaces, moves along with winds in the atmosphere, condenses to form clouds, and falls back to the Earth's surface through rain and snow, some of which flows back to oceans through rivers, thereby completing this global water cycle (Figure 16.1).
Daily newspaper headlines of floods and droughts reflect the critical importance of the water cycle, in particular, precipitation in human affairs.
Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this to your organisation's collection.