Packaging technology must deal with the inexorable trend of semiconductor technology towards higher levels of integration. Extrapolation of present trends suggests that chips with 100 million devices will be produced by the end of the present century. The ability of technology to miniaturize pin-outs will limit the utilization of all of these devices for purposes other than memory. This limitation plus problems of supplying power and removing heat means that chips for high-performance large systems, where the demand for pins follows a well known rule, will probably be limited to levels of integration less than 100,000. A model of large system wiring shows that large increases in the density of wires in system packages and in the rate at which heat can be removed will be needed.
Less severe limitations apply to low cost applications. No large increase in power per chip can be anticipated. However, more powerful microprocessors will become available and will need increased amounts of input-output capability.