Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder.

We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility.

Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.

Although emergency service personnel experience markedly elevated the rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), there are no rigorously conducted trials for PTSD in this population. This study assessed the efficacy of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for PTSD in emergency service personnel, and examined if brief exposure (CBT-B) to trauma memories is no less efficacious as prolonged exposure (CBT-L).

One hundred emergency service personnel with PTSD were randomised to either immediate CBT-L, CBT-B or wait-list (WL). Following post-treatment assessment, WL participants were randomised to an active treatment. Participants randomised to CBT-L or CBT-B were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. Both CBT conditions involved 12 weekly individual sessions comprising education, CBT skills building, imaginal exposure, in vivo exposure, cognitive restructuring and relapse prevention. Imaginal exposure occurred for 40 min per session in CBT-L and for 10 min in CBT-B.

At post-treatment, participants in WL had smaller reductions in PTSD severity (Clinician Administered PTSD Scale), depression, maladaptive appraisals about oneself and the world, and smaller improvements on psychological and social quality of life than CBT-L and CBT-B. There were no differences between CBT-L and CBT-B at follow-up on primary or secondary outcome measures but both CBT-L and CBT-B had large baseline to follow-up effect sizes for reduction of PTSD symptoms.

This study highlights that CBT, which can include either long or brief imaginal exposure, is efficacious in reducing PTSD in emergency service personnel.

Problem Management Plus (PM+) is a brief multicomponent intervention incorporating behavioral strategies delivered by lay health workers. The effectiveness of PM+ has been evaluated in randomized controlled trials in Kenya and Pakistan. When developing interventions for large-scale implementation it is considered essential to evaluate their feasibility and acceptability in addition to their efficacy. This paper discusses a qualitative evaluation of PM+ for women affected by adversity in Kenya.

Qualitative interviews were conducted with 27 key informants from peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya, where PM+ was tested. Interview participants included six women who completed PM+, six community health volunteers (CHVs) who delivered the intervention, seven people with local decision making power, and eight project staff involved in the PM+ trial.

Key informants generally noted positive experiences with PM+. Participants and CHVs reported the positive impact PM+ had made on their lives. Nonetheless, potential structural and psychological barriers to scale up were identified. The sustainability of CHVs as unsalaried, volunteer providers was mentioned by most interviewees as the main barrier to scaling up the intervention.

The findings across diverse stakeholders show that PM+ is largely acceptable in this Kenyan setting. The results indicated that when further implemented, PM+ could be of great value to people in communities exposed to adversities such as interpersonal violence and chronic poverty. Barriers to large-scale implementation were identified, of which the sustainability of the non-specialist health workforce was the most important one.