The authors developed a practical and clinically useful model to predict the risk of psychosis that utilizes clinical characteristics empirically demonstrated to be strong predictors of conversion to psychosis in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals. The model is based upon the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and accompanying clinical interview, and yields scores indicating one's risk of conversion.

Baseline data, including demographic and clinical characteristics measured by the SIPS, were obtained on 199 CHR individuals seeking evaluation in the early detection and intervention for mental disorders program at the New York State Psychiatric Institute at Columbia University Medical Center. Each patient was followed for up to 2 years or until they developed a syndromal DSM-4 disorder. A LASSO logistic fitting procedure was used to construct a model for conversion specifically to a psychotic disorder.

At 2 years, 64 patients (32.2%) converted to a psychotic disorder. The top five variables with relatively large standardized effect sizes included SIPS subscales of visual perceptual abnormalities, dysphoric mood, unusual thought content, disorganized communication, and violent ideation. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.73, indicating a moderately strong ability to discriminate between converters and non-converters.

The prediction model performed well in classifying converters and non-converters and revealed SIPS measures that are relatively strong predictors of conversion, comparable with the risk calculator published by NAPLS (c-index = 0.71), but requiring only a structured clinical interview. Future work will seek to externally validate the model and enhance its performance with the incorporation of relevant biomarkers.

The differential effects of so-called ‘first- and second-generation’ antipsychotic medications, when given in the first episode, on the long-term outcome of schizophrenia remain to be elucidated.

We compared the 9-year outcomes of individuals initially randomised to clozapine or chlorpromazine.

One-hundred and sixty individuals with treatment-naive, first-episode schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder in a mental health centre in Beijing, China were randomised to clozapine or chlorpromazine treatment for up to 2 years, followed by up to an additional 7 years of naturalistic treatment. The primary outcome was remission status for individuals in each group.

Individuals in both groups spent essentially equal amounts of time in each clinical state over the follow-up time period (remission, 78%; intermediate, 8%; relapse, 14%). There were no significant differences on other measures of illness severity. The clozapine group was more likely than the chlorpromazine group to remain on the medication to which they were originally assigned (26% v. 10%, P = 0.01). There were no significant differences between the two groups on other secondary efficacy outcomes.

These findings support the comparability in effectiveness between antipsychotic medications but with slightly greater tolerability of clozapine in the treatment of first-episode psychosis.